【正文】 .........................................21 城市競(jìng)爭(zhēng)要素分析..............................................................................................................................21 的（五）全球化背景下的 XXX......................................................................................................................25 三、城市發(fā)展目標(biāo)與規(guī)模預(yù)測(cè)................................................27（一）城市發(fā)展目標(biāo) ....................................................................................................................................27 經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展目標(biāo)......................................................................................................................................27 社會(huì)發(fā)展目標(biāo)......................................................................................................................................28 環(huán)境整治目標(biāo)......................................................................................................................................28（二）經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展預(yù)測(cè)....................................................................................................................................28 增長(zhǎng)率的確定......................................................................................................................................29 GDP 總量預(yù)測(cè).....................................................................................................................................30 預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果評(píng)價(jià)......................................................................................................................................31（三）市域總?cè)丝陬A(yù)測(cè)................................................................................................................................31 自然增長(zhǎng)率確定..................................................................................................................................31 戶籍人口預(yù)測(cè)......................................................................................................................................31 暫住人口估算......................................................................................................................................34 市域總?cè)丝陬A(yù)測(cè)..................................................................................................................................35（四）城市化水平預(yù)測(cè)................................................................................................................................35 城市化水平與人均 GDP 關(guān)系............................................................................................................35 城市化水平預(yù)測(cè)..................................................................................................................................36（五）城鎮(zhèn)人口預(yù)測(cè)....................................................................................................................................37（六）城鎮(zhèn)等級(jí)規(guī)模結(jié)構(gòu)規(guī)劃....................................................................................................................38 《 XXX 市城市總體規(guī)劃（1997 ～ 2010）》方案..................................................................................38 《 XXX 市域城鎮(zhèn)體系規(guī)劃（1999 ～ 2020）》方案..............................................................................38 中心城區(qū)及周邊縣市城鎮(zhèn)人口..........................................................................................................39（七）中心城區(qū)人口預(yù)測(cè)............................................................................................................................39 中心城區(qū)人口預(yù)測(cè)..............................................................................................................................39 周邊縣市人口預(yù)測(cè)..............................................................................................................................41（八）城市用地規(guī)模預(yù)測(cè)............................................................................................................................42 四、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)重構(gòu)與轉(zhuǎn)移....................................................43（一）產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)現(xiàn)狀分析 ............................................................................................................................43 三次產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)特征..............................................................................................................................43 產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)演化趨勢(shì)..............................................................................................................................44 產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展階段分析..............................................................................................................................44（二）優(yōu)勢(shì)產(chǎn)業(yè)分析....................................................................................................................................45 區(qū)位商分析..........................................................................................................................................45 行業(yè)比重分析......................................................................................................................................48（三）產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)重構(gòu)與轉(zhuǎn)移........................................................................................................................49 產(chǎn)業(yè)重構(gòu)指導(dǎo)思想..............................................................................................................................49—— XXX 城市空間發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略規(guī)劃———III— 制藥工業(yè)..............................................................................................................................................50 紡織工業(yè)..............................................................................................................................................55 食品工業(yè)..............................................................................................................................................57 通信技術(shù)產(chǎn)業(yè)......................................................................................................................................58 商貿(mào)流通業(yè)..................................................................................................................................