【正文】 互投資，區(qū)內(nèi)吸引外商投資能力增強，成員國國際競爭力提高。 研究的目的和意義 研究的目的 本文試圖從我國視角出發(fā)，研究中日韓自貿(mào)區(qū)的建立對我國吸引外商投資的預期效應(yīng)。 關(guān)鍵詞： 中日韓自由貿(mào)易區(qū) 引力模型 外商直接投資 The Simulation Analysis of China’s FDI Inflow Impact based on the Establishment of ChinaJapanSouth Korea FTA Abstract： Since the end of last century, China, Japan and Korea are actively pushing regional economic integration. As three biggest economic entities in East Asia, the establishment of ChinaJapanKorea FTA is a symbol of globalization with the pursuit of mon interest. The goal of this free trade area is to achieve global specialization and reasonable resources allocation motivated by marketing mechanism, in this way ending with increasing welfare and international petitive power of FTA members. Free trade area could eliminate the trade barriers between member countries, realizing free trade, improving economic contact between member countries,fulfills the goal of coordinated development within the FTA region. FTA produces enormous economic impact, including impact on trade, investment and industry, while in the paper, we focus on the foreign direct investment part, in other words, the changes of FDI inflow. The regional trade volume increase from over 130 billion dollars in 1999 to more than 690 billion in 20xx, while Japan ranks second and China fifth in global FDI. But the regional FDI occupied less than 6% paring to the total investment, insufficient regional investment restricts the development of Asian countries. FDI could be seen as key hub of the Asian production works, it improves the cooperation of production area, and at the same time, helps Asian countries get rid of their high dependency on the Western countries. While for China, FDI inflow is part of our country’s economic strategies, it could improve resource allocation and free flow of international capital. As an important part of economic impact, FDI impact could massively helps us to understand how China will play in the FTA of China, Japan and Korea, and in this way, providing guidance for the government. This paper first introduces the regional economic integration theory, followed by the background, development and characteristics of FTA of China, Japan and Korea. Then, it analyzes the factors influencing the development of FTA, including the intimacy influence, political impact and America’s role. Afterwards, based on the regional economic integration theory and investment theory, presuming FTA of China, Japan and Korea will establish in 2020, this paper takes account of the decisive factors to forecast the foreign direct investment impact of establishment of ChinaJapanKorea FTA by the use of Gravity model . Based on the results, some advice and suggestions are given. Key words: ChinaJapanKorea FTA Gravity model Foreign direct investment Ⅰ 目錄 研究的目的和意 義 .......................................................................................... 6 文獻綜述 .......................................................................................................... 7 研究的基本思路和方法 ................................................................................ 13 研究的創(chuàng)新與不足之處 ................................................................................ 14 1 區(qū)域經(jīng)濟一體化投資理論概述 .................................................14 區(qū)域經(jīng)濟一體化靜態(tài)投資效應(yīng) .................................................................... 15 區(qū)域經(jīng)濟一體化動態(tài)投資效應(yīng) .................................................................... 16 2 建立中日韓自貿(mào)區(qū)的現(xiàn)實基礎(chǔ) .................................................17 中日韓自由貿(mào)易區(qū)背景 ................................................................................ 17 中日韓三國貿(mào)易現(xiàn)狀 .................................................................................... 19 中日韓自貿(mào)區(qū)特點 ........................................................................................ 21 中日韓自貿(mào)區(qū)建立的影響因素 .................................................................... 23 3 中日韓 FDI現(xiàn)狀和影響因素 ....................................................31 我國吸引 FDI 現(xiàn)狀 ..................................................................................... 32 中日韓三國投資現(xiàn)狀 .................................................................................... 34 影響我國外商直接投資的決定因素 ............................................................ 35 區(qū)投資效應(yīng)實證分析 ..............................................37 變量選擇和含義 ............................................................................................ 37 樣本和數(shù)據(jù) .................................................................................................... 39 ................................................................................48 加強對話，妥善處理三國矛盾與分歧 ........................................................ 48 加強與周邊經(jīng)濟大國合作，積累談判資本 ................................................ 49 有效降低運輸成本和其他各種投資成本 .................................................... 50 開放市場，改善投資相關(guān)法律法規(guī) ............................................................ 50 6 結(jié) 論 ......................................................................................51 參 考 文 獻 ................................................................................53 江蘇師范 大學商學院 20xx級學生論文 1 緒論： 自 21 世紀以來世界各國都致力于推進國際區(qū)域經(jīng)濟合作，建立具有區(qū)域特色的經(jīng)濟合作組織。對外直接投資是維系東亞生產(chǎn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的重要紐帶，促進各國生產(chǎn)領(lǐng)域合作；同時，區(qū)域內(nèi)直接投資可以幫助東亞國家擺脫對西方國家的強烈依賴性。作為東亞的三個經(jīng)濟大國，中日韓自由貿(mào)易區(qū)的建立是三國間實現(xiàn)共同利益的根本要求，其目的在于達到以市場機制為動力，實現(xiàn)國際化的專業(yè)分工和資源的合理配置，提高成員國的經(jīng)濟福利和國際競爭力的最終目標。 自由貿(mào)易區(qū)取消成員國之間的貿(mào)易壁壘和障礙，完成貿(mào)易的自由化，促進了國與國之間的經(jīng)濟往來，實現(xiàn)了區(qū)域內(nèi)各國的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展。對我國而言，吸引 FDI 流入是我國實現(xiàn)“走出去，引進來”的重要一環(huán)，可以促進我國 資源優(yōu)化配置和國際資本的自由流動。近年來，中日韓自由貿(mào)易區(qū)談判尤為矚目。以中 日韓自貿(mào)區(qū)于 2020 年建立的假設(shè)為基礎(chǔ)，通過計量模擬分析，構(gòu)筑一個以外商直接投資為主體的經(jīng)濟模型，判斷中日韓自貿(mào)區(qū)建立與否對我國吸引外商直接投資的影響。本文基于中日韓自貿(mào)區(qū)建立假設(shè)，分析 中日韓自貿(mào)區(qū)