【正文】 inaJapanKorea FTA is a symbol of globalization with the pursuit of mon interest. The goal of this free trade area is to achieve global specialization and reasonable resources allocation motivated by marketing mechanism, in this way ending with increasing welfare and international petitive power of FTA members. Free trade area could eliminate the trade barriers between member countries, realizing free trade, improving economic contact between member countries,fulfills the goal of coordinated development within the FTA region. FTA produces enormous economic impact, including impact on trade, investment and industry, while in the paper, we focus on the foreign direct investment part, in other words, the changes of FDI inflow. The regional trade volume increase from over 130 billion dollars in 1999 to more than 690 billion in 20xx, while Japan ranks second and China fifth in global FDI. But the regional FDI occupied less than 6% paring to the total investment, insufficient regional investment restricts the development of Asian countries. FDI could be seen as key hub of the Asian production works, it improves the cooperation of production area, and at the same time, helps Asian countries get rid of their high dependency on the Western countries. While for China, FDI inflow is part of our country’s economic strategies, it could improve resource allocation and free flow of international capital. As an important part of economic impact, FDI impact could massively helps us to understand how China will play in the FTA of China, Japan and Korea, and in this way, providing guidance for the government. This paper first introduces the regional economic integration theory, followed by the background, development and characteristics of FTA of China, Japan and Korea. Then, it analyzes the factors influencing the development of FTA, including the intimacy influence, political impact and America’s role. Afterwards, based on the regional economic integration theory and investment theory, presuming FTA of China, Japan and Korea will establish in 2020, this paper takes account of the decisive factors to forecast the foreign direct investment impact of establishment of ChinaJapanKorea FTA by the use of Gravity model . Based on the results, some advice and suggestions are given. Key words: ChinaJapanKorea FTA Gravity model Foreign direct investment Ⅰ 目錄 研究的目的和意 義 .......................................................................................... 6 文獻(xiàn)綜述 .......................................................................................................... 7 研究的基本思路和方法 ................................................................................ 13 研究的創(chuàng)新與不足之處 ................................................................................ 14 1 區(qū)域經(jīng)濟一體化投資理論概述 .................................................14 區(qū)域經(jīng)濟一體化靜態(tài)投資效應(yīng) .................................................................... 15 區(qū)域經(jīng)濟一體化動態(tài)投資效應(yīng) .................................................................... 16 2 建立中日韓自貿(mào)區(qū)的現(xiàn)實基礎(chǔ) .................................................17 中日韓自由貿(mào)易區(qū)背景 ................................................................................ 17 中日韓三國貿(mào)易現(xiàn)狀 .................................................................................... 19 中日韓自貿(mào)區(qū)特點 ........................................................................................ 21 中日韓自貿(mào)區(qū)建立的影響因素 .................................................................... 23 3 中日韓 FDI現(xiàn)狀和影響因素 ....................................................31 我國吸引 FDI 現(xiàn)狀 ..................................................................................... 32 中日韓三國投資現(xiàn)狀 .................................................................................... 34 影響我國外商直接投資的決定因素 ............................................................ 35 區(qū)投資效應(yīng)實證分析 ..............................................37 變量選擇和含義 ............................................................................................ 37 樣本和數(shù)據(jù) .................................................................................................... 39 ................................................................................48 加強對話，妥善處理三國矛盾與分歧 ........................................................ 48 加強與周邊經(jīng)濟大國合作，積累談判資本 ................................................ 49 有效降低運輸成本和其他各種投資成本 .................................................... 50 開放市場，改善投資相關(guān)法律法規(guī) ............................................................ 50 6 結(jié) 論 ......................................................................................51 參 考 文 獻(xiàn) ................................................................................53 江蘇師范 大學(xué)商學(xué)院 20xx級學(xué)生論文 1 緒論： 自 21 世紀(jì)以來世界各國都致力于推進國際區(qū)域經(jīng)濟合作，建立具有區(qū)域特色的經(jīng)濟合作組織。 文獻(xiàn)綜述 區(qū)域經(jīng)濟一體化 經(jīng)濟效應(yīng) 就區(qū)域經(jīng)濟一體化對經(jīng)濟影響的研究而言，國外學(xué)者主要將其分為貿(mào)易效應(yīng)和投資效應(yīng)兩大方面。 區(qū)域經(jīng)濟一體化直接投資效應(yīng)同樣由靜態(tài)效應(yīng)和動態(tài)效應(yīng)兩方面組成。陳媛媛、李坤望、王海寧（ 20xx）以引力模型為工具，樣本選取了 1992 至 20xx 年間 39 個國家的跨國數(shù)據(jù)，對影響自貿(mào)區(qū)建立的相關(guān)影響因素進行檢驗，包括兩國之間的地理距離、潛在伙伴國的市場規(guī)模、其他自貿(mào)區(qū)成員國市場規(guī)模之和，估計結(jié)果表明距離的影響最為顯著。 根據(jù)日本學(xué)者的研究，中日韓兩兩結(jié)成自貿(mào)區(qū)遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)不如三國共同建立自貿(mào)區(qū)對三方的國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值貢獻(xiàn)以及福利的改善程度大。 從中日韓自由貿(mào)易中特定行業(yè)的經(jīng)濟效應(yīng)來看，黃凌云、張偉（ 20xx）的研究結(jié)果表明，中日韓三國間經(jīng)濟上存在互補性，建立自由貿(mào)易區(qū)對中日韓三國的福利具有積極影響；其中中國的農(nóng)業(yè)和工業(yè)將受益，農(nóng)業(yè)部門所得利益大于工業(yè)部門，資本和技術(shù)密集型產(chǎn)業(yè)會受到一定的沖擊。同時簡析影響中日韓自貿(mào)區(qū)建立的相關(guān)因素，從經(jīng)貿(mào)密切度、政治因素和大國因素三個角度切入；第三部分介紹了我國和中日韓 FDI 現(xiàn)狀，分析了影響 FDI 流入的 決定因素；第四部分通過計量手段模擬分析，構(gòu)筑經(jīng)濟模型。 投資創(chuàng)造效應(yīng) 投資創(chuàng)造效應(yīng)是指，區(qū)域經(jīng)濟一體化建立刺激 FDI 流入，導(dǎo)致區(qū)域外國家對區(qū)域內(nèi)直接投資以及區(qū)域內(nèi)成員國相互投資的迅速增加。例如，歐盟一體化顯著地提高了成員國的經(jīng)濟增長率。各國對多邊貿(mào)易談判的信心大減，促使自由貿(mào)易區(qū)的興起，區(qū)域經(jīng)濟一體化掀 起熱潮。隨后， 20xx 年 7 月在中國上海第二輪談判會議召開。其后迅速回暖，到 20xx 年，日韓貿(mào)易額達(dá)到 1,021 億美元。 談判過程曲折 中日韓自貿(mào)區(qū)談判是一個曲折且持久的過程。具體來說，在建立中日韓自由貿(mào)易區(qū)的進程中，有三大決定性因素影響著中日韓自貿(mào)區(qū)的建立，分別是經(jīng)貿(mào)密切度、政治因素和大國因素。傳統(tǒng)的歐美市場漸現(xiàn)疲勢，中日韓三方的相互依存關(guān)系也逐漸增強，三國經(jīng)濟聯(lián)系越來越緊密，區(qū)域經(jīng)濟一體化是必然趨勢。任何區(qū)域合作的成