【正文】 ...................... 9 定性與定量綜合集成分析法 ................................................................. 10 第三章 研究區(qū)域概況 ............................................................................................... 13 地理位置與行政區(qū)劃 .................................................................................... 13 ............................................................................................... 14 自然地理及水系概況 .................................................................................... 15 自然地理 ............................................................................................. 15 河流水系 ............................................................................................. 17 ........................................................................................ 17 水資源量 .............................................................................................. 18 水利工程現(xiàn)狀 ....................................................................................... 18 用水狀況 .............................................................................................. 20 6 流域水利建設(shè)成就 ........................................................................................ 23 引灤樞紐工程 ...................................................................................... 23 桃林口水庫(kù)工程 .................................................................................. 23 水能開發(fā)工程 ...................................................................................... 24 水土保持工程 ...................................................................................... 24 灤河流域的生態(tài)環(huán)境 .................................................................................... 25 水質(zhì)污染嚴(yán)重 ...................................................................................... 25 地下水超采，水位下降 ........................................................................ 25 河道開發(fā)利用不合理 ........................................................................... 25 第四章 灤河流域水資源可持續(xù)發(fā)展評(píng)價(jià)方法概述 ..................................................... 27 熵權(quán)法評(píng)價(jià)模型 ........................................................................................... 27 熵與權(quán)重的涵義 .................................................................................. 27 建立熵權(quán)法評(píng)價(jià)模型 ........................................................................... 28 熵權(quán)法與可持續(xù)評(píng)價(jià) .................................................................................... 29 第五章 實(shí)例研究 ...................................................................................................... 31 灤河流域水資源可持續(xù)發(fā)展評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系的建立 .......................................... 31 灤河流域水資源可持續(xù)發(fā)展評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)的計(jì)算 ................................................. 35 發(fā)展系數(shù)的計(jì)算 .................................................................................. 35 協(xié)調(diào)系數(shù)的計(jì)算 .................................................................................. 36 公平系數(shù)的計(jì)算 .................................................................................. 36 可持續(xù)系數(shù)的計(jì)算 ............................................................................... 36 各指標(biāo)最終評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果 ........................................................................... 37 第六章 成果分析 ...................................................................................................... 38 影響因素分析 ............................................................................................... 38 綜合評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果分析 ........................................................................................ 39 灤河流域水資源與社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)可持 續(xù)發(fā)展對(duì)策 ................................................. 39 第七章 總結(jié)與展望 .................................................................................................. 43 總結(jié) ............................................................................................................. 43 展望 ............................................................................................................. 43 參考文獻(xiàn) .................................................................................................................... 45 文獻(xiàn)翻譯 .................................................................................................................... 46 英文原文 ............................................................................................................. 46 中文譯文 ............................................................................................................. 50 致謝 ........................................................................................................................... 55 7 1 第一章 緒論 研究目的和意義 進(jìn)入二十一世紀(jì)，在我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)高速發(fā)展的同時(shí)，水資源形勢(shì)也日益嚴(yán)峻 ,水危機(jī)初步顯現(xiàn)，主要表現(xiàn)在 ： 水資源短缺、時(shí)空分布不均勻 ， 用水成本越來越高，對(duì)環(huán)境的破壞也越來越大 ， 水資源短缺嚴(yán) 重制約經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展 ， 縱觀水的遠(yuǎn)景，更大的水危機(jī)還在后頭 ， 水質(zhì)嚴(yán)重污染，水環(huán)境遭到破壞 。 關(guān)鍵詞 ：城市水資源 可持續(xù) 熵權(quán)法 灤河流域 Abstract With the rapid economic and social development, economic growth in the 21st century, China will continue to face problems of population, resource depletion and environmental degradation challenges. Resources and the environment which is particularly difficult and prominent, as the main factor restricting economicdevelopmt Wa ter is all production activities and the natural resources essential to all life,withlimited, reverability, tempcooral and spatial variation of the inhomogeneity, multifaceteddevelopment and utilization of the characteristics and versatility. water resources is the basis for important national resource, water ownership is an important part of overall national strength. 21 The importance of water for human will with oil in the 20th century the importance of the human as a