實(shí)際利率變動(dòng)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響本科畢業(yè)論文-wenkub
2023-07-13 15:00:13 本頁(yè)面
【正文】 開(kāi)通貨膨脹率干擾后的實(shí)際利率對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響，并對(duì)利率市場(chǎng)化改革相關(guān)的分析，這對(duì)我們實(shí)現(xiàn)通過(guò)適當(dāng)?shù)姆绞秸{(diào)節(jié)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)具有重要的理論和實(shí)踐意義。實(shí)際利率是資金的價(jià)格，是借貸的成本，也是經(jīng)濟(jì)生活中一個(gè)至關(guān)重要的變量。本文研究結(jié)果表明，實(shí)際利率的變動(dòng)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)有著重要影響，本文將對(duì)實(shí)際利率與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的關(guān)系進(jìn)行探究，對(duì)近年來(lái)受關(guān)注的利率市場(chǎng)化的舉措進(jìn)行淺析，并提出相關(guān)政策建議。關(guān)鍵詞：實(shí)際利率，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，利率市場(chǎng)化AbstractThere is a inseparable relationship between real interest rates and economic growth, and we have to face and solve the problems of that what effect could real interest rates changes bring, and how could we take advantage of the effective measures to adjust and control the economic development trend and direction. The result of our study shows that the real interest rates have important influence on economic growth. We will discuss the relationship between real interest rates and economic growth in this article, offer a brief analysis of interest rate liberalization which is popular here and now, and put forward some relevant policy suggestions. Key words: Real interest rates, Economic growth, Interest rate liberalizationII目 錄摘 要 IAbstract I實(shí)際利率變動(dòng)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響 1一、引言 1二、實(shí)際利率影響經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的文獻(xiàn)綜述 1三、實(shí)際利率對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)影響的實(shí)證分析 3（一）模型、變量和數(shù)據(jù) 3（二）回歸分析 5四、政策分析及建議 6（一）發(fā)現(xiàn)我國(guó)現(xiàn)行利率政策存在的問(wèn)題 6（二）對(duì)我國(guó)的政策建議 8（三）推行利率市場(chǎng)化的障礙與其解決 9參考文獻(xiàn) 1致謝 2實(shí)際利率變動(dòng)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響一、引言利率是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的一個(gè)重要影響因素，也是國(guó)家對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)實(shí)行宏觀調(diào)節(jié)的重要工具。實(shí)際利率是名義利率減去同期通貨膨脹率，因而關(guān)注實(shí)際利率的變動(dòng)，就離不開(kāi)對(duì)存貸款利率的分析。本文的安排如下：第二部分是有關(guān)實(shí)際利率水平與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)關(guān)系研究的文獻(xiàn)綜述，第三部分是指標(biāo)選取與實(shí)證分析，第四部分是相關(guān)政策建議。“資本邊際效率遞減”和“流動(dòng)性偏好”（凱恩斯提出的一種假說(shuō)，指當(dāng)一段時(shí)間內(nèi)即使利率降到很低水平，市場(chǎng)參與者對(duì)其變化不敏感，對(duì)利率調(diào)整不再作出反應(yīng)，導(dǎo)致貨幣政策失效。麥金農(nóng)和愛(ài)德華麥金農(nóng)和肖（1973）認(rèn)為在經(jīng)濟(jì)短缺的背景下，由于金融抑制的影響，市場(chǎng)利率被嚴(yán)重低估，只有提高利率水平才能誘導(dǎo)客戶(hù)增加儲(chǔ)蓄，從而為經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展提供更多的社會(huì)資源。而金融深化理論的研究背景實(shí)質(zhì)是短缺經(jīng)濟(jì)，在此背景下生產(chǎn)能力不足，從而使得投資和消費(fèi)需求相對(duì)過(guò)高，這種短缺的產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)格局必然導(dǎo)致的是資金市場(chǎng)的供不應(yīng)求，同時(shí)，利率管制的國(guó)家出于金融資源的壟斷考慮，會(huì)壓低市場(chǎng)利率。金融深化理論誕生于六七十年代，研究對(duì)象時(shí)多數(shù)仍處于賣(mài)方市場(chǎng)狀態(tài)下的發(fā)展中國(guó)家，因?yàn)榻鉀Q的問(wèn)題重在長(zhǎng)期的增長(zhǎng)。把眼光放到我國(guó)，九十年代初可以作為我國(guó)市場(chǎng)類(lèi)型轉(zhuǎn)變的一個(gè)重要轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)，在這一時(shí)期，我國(guó)由賣(mài)方市場(chǎng)轉(zhuǎn)向買(mǎi)方市場(chǎng)，由計(jì)劃經(jīng)濟(jì)體制真正轉(zhuǎn)向市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)體制，增長(zhǎng)方式也開(kāi)始由單純追求速度的粗放型增長(zhǎng)向講求質(zhì)量和效益的集約型增長(zhǎng)轉(zhuǎn)變。選取GDP增長(zhǎng)率為指標(biāo)，反應(yīng)我國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)情況。考慮到貨幣政策的滯后性，將滯后一期的實(shí)際
環(huán)評(píng)公示相關(guān)推薦
鄂ICP備17016276號(hào)-1