【正文】 ......................................................................12一、第一次降息的市場反應(yīng) ................................................................................................................12二、第二次降息的市場反應(yīng) ................................................................................................................13三、我們離存款利率放開管制還有多遠？ ........................................................................................15四、銀行業(yè) ROE 水平將回落至 15%左右 .............................................................................................15五、現(xiàn)價隱含較高的不良率預(yù)期 ........................................................................................................17〖趨勢判斷〗 .............................................................................................................................18中國銀行業(yè) 10 年融資路與貨幣擴張之變 ...............................................................................18一、銀行拿了多少錢？ ........................................................................................................................18二、銀行為什么拿這么多錢？ ............................................................................................................20三、銀行還能放貸多少？對貨幣擴張有什么影響 ............................................................................24〖風(fēng)險管理〗 .............................................................................................................................27淺析我國商業(yè)銀行全面風(fēng)險管理體系的構(gòu)建 .........................................................................27一、商業(yè)銀行風(fēng)險管理的基本內(nèi)涵 ....................................................................................................27二、我國商業(yè)銀行風(fēng)險管理的現(xiàn)狀和存在的問題 ............................................................................30三、完善我國商業(yè)銀行風(fēng)險管理體系 ................................................................................................31〖風(fēng)險計量〗 .............................................................................................................................36中國 17 家主要商業(yè)銀行穩(wěn)定狀況定量分析 ...........................................................................36一、盈利能力分析 ................................................................................................................................36二、資產(chǎn)分析 ........................................................................................................................................39三、負債、資本與流動性 ....................................................................................................................40〖行業(yè)風(fēng)險〗 .............................................................................................................................417 月 PMI 顯示經(jīng)濟繼續(xù)承壓政策預(yù)期未現(xiàn) ............................................................................41一、PMI 未能沖破淡季的束縛 .............................................................................................................41二、PMI 行業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)印證經(jīng)濟下滑趨勢的延續(xù) .....................................................................................42三、總需求仍然疲弱，下半年政策將維持寬松 ................................................................................43〖企業(yè)風(fēng)險〗 .............................................................................................................................472022 年 16 月工 業(yè)企業(yè)經(jīng)濟效益分析 .....................................................................................47一、利潤連續(xù)五個月負增長，降速已出現(xiàn)收窄，但非銷售收入回暖 ............................................47二、預(yù)計 17 月份工業(yè)企業(yè)經(jīng)濟效益繼續(xù)維持現(xiàn)行較低增速水平 ................................................48三、公用事業(yè)穩(wěn)定增長，電子設(shè)備有回暖跡象 ................................................................................482 / 92集團客戶授信管理體制問題分析及其完善對策 .....................................................................50一、集團客戶授信管理體制中存在的問題分析 ................................................................................50二、完善集團客戶授信管理體制的關(guān)鍵對策 ....................................................................................51〖經(jīng)營分析〗 .............................................................................................................................52中國銀行業(yè) 7 月份月度盤點與分析 .........................................................................................52一、宏觀數(shù)據(jù)與信貸數(shù)據(jù) ....................................................................................................................52二、行業(yè)動態(tài) ........................................................................................................................................57三、銀行動態(tài) ........................................................................................................................................60每周 銀 行 觀 察 .....................................................................................................62央行報告更加凸顯穩(wěn)增長保就業(yè)的重要性地位 .....................................................................62健全資本約束機制 提升銀行抗險水平 ....................................................................................63正確認知信用評級機構(gòu)的“真面目” .........................................................................................64“促進民間資本投資”已成拉動經(jīng)濟的重要選項 .....................................................................64樓市成交持續(xù)回暖中央強調(diào)調(diào)控從嚴 .....................................................................................65政策 變動 參考 .....................................................................................................67銀監(jiān)會召開年中監(jiān)管及經(jīng)濟金融形勢分析會議 .....................................................................67銀監(jiān)會醞釀銀行資本充足率六年分步達標 .............................................................................69穩(wěn)健貨幣政策下的金融市場發(fā)展與創(chuàng)新 .................................................................................69政府規(guī)避覆轍重蹈 不會再推大規(guī)模刺激 ................................................................................71經(jīng)濟 金融 評 析 .....................................................................................................722022 年全年中國與世界經(jīng)濟形勢展望 ....................................................................................72中國投資、消費、進出口有向好發(fā)展趨勢 ..........