【正文】 little premature, don39。t discuss fallacies.“波莉，”當(dāng)我們又一次坐在那棵橡樹下的時(shí)候我對她說，“今晚我們不討論邏輯謬誤了。s a good idea, said Polly.“我仍然認(rèn)為這是一個(gè)好主意，”波莉說。t make an analogy between them.“波莉，”我抱怨道，“別打岔，這一推論是錯(cuò)誤的。”23 I like that idea, she said.“我喜歡這個(gè)主意，”她說。這個(gè)人根本沒有回答老板的問題，而只是在博取老板的同情，這就是‘文不對題’。s awful, I agreed, but it39?！?7 She nodded with delight.她高興地點(diǎn)了點(diǎn)頭?！皼]有人嗎？”14 This is also a fallacy, I said. The generalization is reached too hastily. Too few instances support such a conclusion.“這也是一種邏輯謬誤，”我說，“這一結(jié)論太草率了，因?yàn)槟軌蛑С诌@一結(jié)論的例證太少了。t speak French. Rob can39?！安ɡ?，”我解釋說，“這個(gè)推斷太過簡單化了。比方說：運(yùn)動(dòng)是有益的，所以每個(gè)人都應(yīng)該運(yùn)動(dòng)。邏輯上出現(xiàn)的問題會(huì)歪曲事實(shí)，其中有些還很普遍。5 Logic.“邏輯學(xué)。我的想法有些怪異。如果我能夠讓我所申請的頂尖律師事務(wù)所看到我身邊伴隨著一位光彩照人、談吐優(yōu)雅的另一半，我就很有可能在競聘中以微弱優(yōu)勢獲勝。他可不那么聰明，而他的女友波莉也不太精明。d give me his girl in exchange for my jacket. He wasn39。unit 1 TextALove and logic: The story of a fallacy愛情與邏輯：謬誤的故事1 I had my first date with Polly after I made the trade with my roommate Rob. That year every guy on campus had a leather jacket, and Rob couldn39。t the brightest guy. Polly wasn39。2 But she was pretty, welloff, didn39。3 Radiant she was already. I could dispense her enough pearls of wisdom to make her wellspoken.“光彩照人”，她已經(jīng)是了。而這個(gè)地方能夠俯瞰燈火燦爛的城區(qū)，我覺得它會(huì)使人的心情變輕松?！? Cool, she said over her gum.“好酷啊，”她一邊嚼著口香糖一邊說。我們先來看看一種叫做‘絕對判斷’的邏輯謬誤。”10 She nodded in agreement.她點(diǎn)頭表示贊同。如果你有心臟病或者超級(jí)肥胖癥什么的，運(yùn)動(dòng)就變得有害而不是有益。t speak French. Looks like nobody at this school can speak French.“接下來是‘草率結(jié)論’?！?5 She seemed to have a good time. I could safely say my plan was underway. I took her home and set a date for another conversation.她似乎學(xué)得很開心，而我也可以放心地說我的計(jì)劃正在穩(wěn)步推進(jìn)中。18 Listen closely, I said. A man applies for a job. When the boss asks him what his qualifications are, he says he has six children to feed.“聽好了，”我說，“有個(gè)人去申請工作，當(dāng)老板問他有什么應(yīng)聘資格時(shí)，他說他有六個(gè)孩子要撫養(yǎng)。s no argument. The man never answered the boss39?！?1 She blinked, still trying hard to keep back her tears.她眨著眼睛，仍在竭力地忍住眼淚。24 Polly, I groaned, don39。醫(yī)生們不是在參加考試以檢查他們學(xué)到了多少，而學(xué)生卻是。26 With five nights of diligent work, I actually made a logician out of Polly. She was an analytical thinker at last. The time had e for the conversion of our relationship from academic to romantic.經(jīng)過五個(gè)夜晚的辛勤努力，我竟然真的將波莉打造成了一個(gè)邏輯行家，她總算能夠分析思考了?！?8 Oh? she said, a little disappointed.“哦？”她回答說，有一點(diǎn)失望。t you think?“草率結(jié)論，”波莉伶俐地說，“或者是按一般人的說法，這個(gè)結(jié)論有些不成熟，你不這樣認(rèn)為嗎？”31 I laughed with amusement. She39?！坝H愛的，”我開口說，同時(shí)寬容地拍了拍她的手，“五次約會(huì)已經(jīng)夠多了，畢竟你不需要吃掉整個(gè)蛋糕才知道它是不是好吃?！澳愕那疤崾羌s會(huì)就如同吃東西。再錯(cuò)幾步我可就無法挽回了。m nothing without you.“波莉，我愛你。t take them so literally. I mean this is all academic. You know the things you learn in school don39?！?7 Dicto Simpliciter, she said. Besides, you really should practice what you preach.“絕對判斷，”她說道，“而且，你自己教的東西應(yīng)該自己身體力行。m more interested in a different petitioner — Rob and I are back together.“我對另一位求愛者更感興趣——羅伯和我重歸于好了。你是否能給我一個(gè)充足的理由，為什么要選擇跟他？”43 Wow, what presumption! I39。這一價(jià)值體系所隱含的前提是，聰明人借助自己豐富的學(xué)識(shí)會(huì)作出更高明的決定。2 Thankfully these biases can be avoided. Understanding how and in what situations they occur can give you an awareness of your own limitations and allow you to factor them into your decisionmaking.好在這些偏差是可以避免的。 success as the product of mere luck.最常見的偏差之一就是通常所說的“基本歸因錯(cuò)誤”。4 In other words, we typically demand more accountability from others than we do from ourselves. Not only does this lead to petty judgments about other people, it also leads to faulty risk assessment when you assume that certain bad things only happen to others. For example, you might assume, without evidence, that the price of your house will go up even though 90 percent of them have dropped in price, because you yourself are more petent.換句話說，我們通常要求別人承擔(dān)更多的責(zé)任，而不是自己。這種偏差包含兩部分：第一，我們往往只收集且只依賴對我們的已有觀點(diǎn)起支持作用的信息；第二，我們回避或否認(rèn)那些與自己之前所持的假設(shè)相左的信息。所以，要克服“確定性偏差”，就要以同樣的努力認(rèn)真探究論點(diǎn)的正反兩面。但在現(xiàn)實(shí)中，人們的信心卻大大超過了其判斷的準(zhǔn)確度。當(dāng)法庭傳喚目擊者出庭作證時(shí)，對他們證詞的信任度是通過已經(jīng)獲取的相符或相反的證據(jù)來度量的。同樣，人們也可能因懼怕遭到人身侵犯或者強(qiáng)暴而不敢再在晚上出門。11 The sunk cost fallacy has a periodic application and was first identified by economists. A good example of how it works is the casino slot machine. Gamblers with a high threshold for risk put money into a slot machine hoping for a big return, but with each pull of the lever they lose some money playing the odds. If they have been pulling the lever many times in a row without success, they might decide that they had better keep spending money at the machine, or they will have wasted everything they already put in.“沉沒成本謬誤”也時(shí)有發(fā)生，它最初是由經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家發(fā)現(xiàn)的。12 The truth is that every pull of the lever has the same winning probability of nearly one in a trillion, regardless of how much money has been put in before — the previous plays were sunk costs.而事實(shí)是，不論他們之前投入了多少錢，每一次拉動(dòng)拉桿的成功幾率都同樣是極小的——之前投入的那些即為沉沒成本。unit 2 TextAThe confusing pursuit of beauty令人困惑的對美的追求1 If you39。相信我，這是最簡單的方法。大多數(shù)男性對自己外表的評價(jià)在七年級(jí)時(shí)就形成了，而且終生不變。 average is fine. They don39。如果他們偶爾想到自己外表的話，他們愿意認(rèn)為自己樣貌中等。對于一位男性來說，如果能花四分鐘刮刮胡子，結(jié)束之后再把粘到頭發(fā)上的剃須膏擦凈，又沒有出血太厲害，他就覺得自己已經(jīng)盡心盡力了。”一位女士，無論她看起來多么吸引人，她對自己的看法總是由于受美容業(yè)的影響而蒙著一層陰影。t inborn, but created through the interaction of many plex psychological and societal factors, beginning with the dolls we give them as children. Girls grow up playing with dolls proportioned so that, if they were human, they would be seven feet tall and weigh 61 pounds, with tiny thighs and a large upper body. This is an absurd standard to live up to, especially when you consider the size of the doll39。與女孩玩具的這種荒唐標(biāo)準(zhǔn)相比，小男孩們得到的“動(dòng)作玩偶”卻是完全不同的模樣。 she stressed how important it was to adhere to the guidelines, like applying products via the tips of their fingers to protect elasticity. All the women dutifully did this, even though it was obvious to any rational observer that, no matter how carefully they applied these products, they would never have Cindy Crawford39。克勞馥和演播室里的觀眾分享了自己的化妝秘訣。8 I39。t face the same societal focus purely on physical beauty, and they39。與女性不同，男性的外貌美不是社會(huì)所關(guān)注的唯一焦點(diǎn)。s bare nails.當(dāng)然，女性會(huì)爭辯說她們對外表的熱衷追求是出于對來自男性的壓力的一種反應(yīng)。t notice when it only exposes women to prosecution from other