【正文】 中日韓自貿(mào)區(qū)建立對(duì)我國(guó)吸引 FDI的影響模擬分析 摘要： 自二十一世紀(jì)起，中國(guó)、日本和韓國(guó)開始積極推進(jìn)國(guó)際區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)合作。作為東亞的三個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)大國(guó)，中日韓自由貿(mào)易區(qū)的建立是三國(guó)間實(shí)現(xiàn)共同利益的根本要求，其目的在于達(dá)到以市場(chǎng)機(jī)制為動(dòng)力，實(shí)現(xiàn)國(guó)際化的專業(yè)分工和資源的合理配置，提高成員國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)福利和國(guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的最終目標(biāo)。 自由貿(mào)易區(qū)取消成員國(guó)之間的貿(mào)易壁壘和障礙，完成貿(mào)易的自由化，促進(jìn)了國(guó)與國(guó)之間的經(jīng)濟(jì)往來，實(shí)現(xiàn)了區(qū)域內(nèi)各國(guó)的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展。中日韓自貿(mào)區(qū)建立會(huì)產(chǎn)生巨大的經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)，包括貿(mào)易效應(yīng)、投資效應(yīng)和產(chǎn)業(yè)效應(yīng)等，本文著重 于研究中日韓自貿(mào)區(qū)建立對(duì)我國(guó)產(chǎn)生的直接投資效應(yīng)。 20xx 年中日韓區(qū)域貿(mào)易從 1999 年的 1300 多億美元上升至 20xx 年的 6900 多億，其中日本和中國(guó)在全球?qū)ν庵苯油顿Y中分別位居第二位和第五位，但是中日韓三國(guó)的相互投資額卻只占對(duì)外投資額的 6%，區(qū)域投資不足制約著東亞區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展。對(duì)外直接投資是維系東亞生產(chǎn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的重要紐帶，促進(jìn)各國(guó)生產(chǎn)領(lǐng)域合作；同時(shí)，區(qū)域內(nèi)直接投資可以幫助東亞國(guó)家擺脫對(duì)西方國(guó)家的強(qiáng)烈依賴性。對(duì)我國(guó)而言，吸引 FDI 流入是我國(guó)實(shí)現(xiàn)“走出去，引進(jìn)來”的重要一環(huán)，可以促進(jìn)我國(guó) 資源優(yōu)化配置和國(guó)際資本的自由流動(dòng)。直接投資效應(yīng)作為自貿(mào)區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)的重要組成部分，有助于了解我國(guó)在中日韓自貿(mào)區(qū)建立中所扮演的角色，對(duì)于我國(guó)在推進(jìn)中日韓自貿(mào)區(qū)建立的進(jìn)程中制定政策、預(yù)防風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等方面具有重要指導(dǎo)作用。 本文首先介紹了區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化相關(guān)理論，為實(shí)證分析提供理論依據(jù)；其次，本文簡(jiǎn)述中日韓自貿(mào)區(qū)的背景、現(xiàn)狀和特點(diǎn)，說明了中日韓自貿(mào)區(qū)建立的現(xiàn)實(shí)基礎(chǔ)；再次，對(duì)影響中日韓自貿(mào)區(qū)建立的因素進(jìn)行分析，包括三國(guó)間經(jīng)貿(mào)密切度、政治因素和大國(guó)因素三方面；然后，本文介紹了我國(guó) FDI 和中日韓三國(guó)間相互投資的現(xiàn)狀，分析了 影響我國(guó)外商直接投資的決定因素；之后，本文以區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化理論相關(guān)理論作為實(shí)證的理論依據(jù)，假設(shè)中日韓自貿(mào)區(qū)于 2020 年建立，采用引力模型，定量和定性分析相結(jié)合，引入了對(duì) FDI 流入產(chǎn)生影響的幾個(gè)環(huán)境因子進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析，判斷哪些環(huán)境因子對(duì)我國(guó)吸引 FDI 具有決定性作用，然后通過模擬分析預(yù)測(cè)了中日韓自貿(mào)區(qū)的建立對(duì)我國(guó)吸引區(qū)域內(nèi)外商投資的影響；最后根據(jù)實(shí)證分析所得，本文針對(duì)我國(guó)參與自貿(mào)區(qū)建設(shè)提供了可行建議。 關(guān)鍵詞： 中日韓自由貿(mào)易區(qū) 引力模型 外商直接投資 The Simulation Analysis of China’s FDI Inflow Impact based on the Establishment of ChinaJapanSouth Korea FTA Abstract： Since the end of last century, China, Japan and Korea are actively pushing regional economic integration. As three biggest economic entities in East Asia, the establishment of ChinaJapanKorea FTA is a symbol of globalization with the pursuit of mon interest. The goal of this free trade area is to achieve global specialization and reasonable resources allocation motivated by marketing mechanism, in this way ending with increasing welfare and international petitive power of FTA members. Free trade area could eliminate the trade barriers between member countries, realizing free trade, improving economic contact between member countries,fulfills the goal of coordinated development within the FTA region. FTA produces enormous economic impact, including impact on trade, investment and industry, while in the paper, we focus on the foreign direct investment part, in other words, the changes of FDI inflow. The regional trade volume increase from over 130 billion dollars in 1999 to more than 690 billion in 20xx, while Japan ranks second and China fifth in global FDI. But the regional FDI occupied less than 6% paring to the total investment, insufficient regional investment restricts the development of Asian countries. FDI could be seen as key hub of the Asian production works, it improves the cooperation of production area, and at the same time, helps Asian countries get rid of their high dependency on the Western countries. While for China, FDI inflow is part of our country’s economic strategies, it could improve resource allocation and free flow of international capital. As an important part of economic impact, FDI impact could massively helps us to understand how China will play in the FTA of China, Japan and Korea, and in this way, providing guidance for the government. This paper first introduces the regional economic integration theory, followed by the background, development and characteristics of FTA of China, Japan and Korea. Then, it analyzes the factors influencing the development of FTA, including the intimacy influence, political impact and America’s role. Afterwards, based on the regional economic integration theory and investment theory, presuming FTA of China, Japan and Korea will establish in 2020, this paper takes account of the decisive factors to forecast the foreign direct investment impact of establishment of ChinaJapanKorea FTA by the use of Gravity model . Based on the results, some advice and suggestions are given. Key words: ChinaJapanKorea FTA Gravity model Foreign direct investment Ⅰ 目錄 研究的目的和意 義 .......................................................................................... 6 文獻(xiàn)綜述 .......................................................................................................... 7 研究的基本思路和方法 ................................................................................ 13 研究的創(chuàng)新與不足之處 ................................................................................ 14 1 區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化投資理論概述 .................................................14 區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化靜態(tài)投資效應(yīng) .................................................................... 15 區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化動(dòng)態(tài)投資效應(yīng) .................................................................... 16 2 建立中日韓自貿(mào)區(qū)的現(xiàn)實(shí)基礎(chǔ) .................................................17 中日韓自由貿(mào)易區(qū)背景 ................................................................................ 17 中日韓三國(guó)貿(mào)易現(xiàn)狀 .................................................................................... 19 中日韓自貿(mào)區(qū)特點(diǎn) ........................................................................................ 21 中日韓自貿(mào)區(qū)建立的影響因素 .................................................................... 23 3 中日韓 FDI現(xiàn)狀和影響因素 ....................................................31 我國(guó)吸引 FDI 現(xiàn)狀 ..................................................................................... 32 中日韓三國(guó)投資現(xiàn)狀 .................................................................................... 34 影響我國(guó)外商直接投資的決定因素 ............................................................ 35 區(qū)投資效應(yīng)實(shí)證分析 ..............................................37 變量選擇和含義 ............................................................................................ 37 樣本和數(shù)據(jù) .................................................................................................... 39 ................................................................................48 加強(qiáng)對(duì)話，妥善處理三國(guó)矛盾與分歧 ........................................................ 48 加強(qiáng)與周邊經(jīng)濟(jì)大國(guó)合作，積累談判資本 ..........