【正文】 碩士研究生學(xué)位論文FDI 與 中 國 對 外 貿(mào) 易 績 效 ： 理 論 模 型 與實 證 分 析i / 44論文提要隨著全球化進(jìn)程的加快，貿(mào)易與投資的聯(lián)系日益緊密，外資正在成為影響各國貿(mào)易增長的主要力量。從總體上看，國際商品貿(mào)易與 FDI 之間的相互作用、相互促進(jìn)關(guān)系日益加強(qiáng)。但具體而言，在經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化的條件下，一國的外商直接投資和商品貿(mào)易之間究竟存在著何種關(guān)系，是具有互補(bǔ)性還是具有替代性？一個產(chǎn)業(yè)部門利用 FDI 的變化對該產(chǎn)業(yè)的進(jìn)出口有何影響，對其他產(chǎn)業(yè)有何影響？FDI 與中國對外貿(mào)易之間的關(guān)系如何？我國利用 FDI對我國的貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)、出口競爭力、產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)貿(mào)易、貿(mào)易條件有何影響？從理論模型和實證角度兩方面進(jìn)行總結(jié)和分析，對我國進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大開放、引進(jìn)外商直接投資以及正確制定外資政策具有重要的現(xiàn)實意義，這些問題也正是本文研究的主要內(nèi)容。本文沿用小島模型中的關(guān)于直接投資是包括資本、技術(shù)、經(jīng)營管理技能的總體轉(zhuǎn)移這一思想，提出直接投資是一種技術(shù)性投資，并在一個局部均衡模型中，得出命題：一個部門 FDI 的增加將促進(jìn)本部門的凈出口，同時通過吸引其它部門的要素資源減少其它部門的凈出口。結(jié)合我國實際，指出隨著 FDI 在我國高新技術(shù)行業(yè)和高附加值行業(yè)投入的增加，勢必促進(jìn)我國這些技術(shù)、資本密集型行業(yè)的凈出口，從而提升貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)。又由于貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、顯性比較優(yōu)勢、產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)貿(mào)易、貿(mào)易條件緊密相關(guān)。因此我們亦可得出：FDI 對貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、顯性比較優(yōu)勢、產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)貿(mào)易和貿(mào)易條件都可以產(chǎn)生一定的影響。本文實證分析表明，實證結(jié)果與理論模型及其基本命題的結(jié)論是一致的。從某種意義上說，上述研究，將可以為我國外資政策的調(diào)整提供理論支持和實證依據(jù)。論文包括五章，其基本結(jié)構(gòu)是：第 1 章導(dǎo)論，主要包括問題的提出、從理論和實證兩個方面對西方文獻(xiàn)綜述進(jìn)行梳理和評析、國內(nèi)學(xué)者的研究狀況、本文的研究定位和結(jié)構(gòu)安排。第 2 章是理論分析部分，本章提出了一個技術(shù)性的 FDI 理論和模型，并得出一個有關(guān)國際商品貿(mào)易與外商直接投資之間關(guān)系的命題。通過對該命題的擴(kuò)展，可以得出了本文的中心命題：一個部門 FDI 的增加將促進(jìn)本部門的凈出口，同時通過吸引其它部門的要素資源減少其它部門的凈出口。結(jié)合我國實際，特別是 90 年代以后，我國利用 FDI 越來越集中在技術(shù)、資本密集型行業(yè)，技術(shù)、資本密集型行業(yè)中的 FDI 的增加將促進(jìn)本部門總產(chǎn)值和凈出口的增加，同時減緩其他部門總產(chǎn)值和凈出口，從而提升了我國的貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)。又由于貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、顯性比較優(yōu)勢、產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)貿(mào)易、貿(mào)易條件緊密相關(guān)。因此我們亦可得出：FDI 對貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、顯性比較優(yōu)勢、產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)貿(mào)易和貿(mào)易條件都可以產(chǎn)生一定的ii / 44影響。第 3 章重點(diǎn)對 FDI 與我國對外貿(mào)易做總體描述。從總量上看，我國吸引外資和對外貿(mào)易的增長速度都遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)快于 GDP 增長速度；從結(jié)構(gòu)上看(包括商品結(jié)構(gòu)、部門結(jié)構(gòu)、國別與地區(qū)流向等方面)，對外貿(mào)易和 FDI 結(jié)構(gòu)特征存在明顯的、緊密和順方向變動的關(guān)系；從外商投資企業(yè)的進(jìn)出口來看，過去十多年，外商投資企業(yè)的出口行為對中國出口增長及出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)升級做出了突出貢獻(xiàn)。第 4 章是第 3 章的深化，重點(diǎn)對 FDI 與我國對外貿(mào)易做實證分析。從實證角度來驗證第 2 章理論模型的擴(kuò)展結(jié)論。實證結(jié)果表明：技術(shù)、資金密集型行業(yè)吸收 FDI 的增加，提升了我國出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)，提高了該類產(chǎn)品的顯性比較優(yōu)勢指數(shù)（RCA） ，促進(jìn)了該行業(yè)的產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)貿(mào)易的發(fā)展，以及對我國貿(mào)易條件產(chǎn)生了必要的影響。第5 章是結(jié)論與政策建議。在總結(jié)本文有關(guān)觀點(diǎn)的同時，提出了今后需要進(jìn)一步研究的問題和方向；并且基于理論研究和實證分析，充分利用本文的研究成果，對我國如何利用 FDI 優(yōu)化貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)、提高產(chǎn)品顯性比較優(yōu)勢、促進(jìn)產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)貿(mào)易發(fā)展和改善貿(mào)易條件提出相應(yīng)的幾條政策建議。關(guān)鍵字：外商直接投資；國際商品貿(mào)易；績效；理論模型；實證分析iii / 44ABSTRACTWith the rapid development of globalization, the relationship between trade and investment is interconnected than ever before and Foreign Capital (FC) has bee the major factor that influences the whole country’s trade growth. On the whole, the interaction and mutual promotion between the international modity trade and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) are both increasing and expanding rapidly. But concretely speaking, what on earth is the exact relationship between the international modity trade and FDI in one country under the condition of economic globalization? How do the changes of one industry’s utilization of FDI influence its import and export as well as other industries? What’s the relationship between China’s FDI enticement and China’s foreign trade? What are the influences our FDI enticement has on our Trade Structure (TS), Export Competitiveness, Intraindustry Trade (IIT), and Terms of Trade (TT)? Theoretically and empirically, this dissertation summarizes and analyzes the questions mentioned above. They are practically significant to issues including further openingup, FDI enticement, and proper FC policy formulation and are also the main content of this research paper. Following the thought in the Kojima Model that direct investment is the synthesis including capital, technology and management skills, this dissertation brings forward the concept of the technology investment and draws a conclusion based on analysis on the partial equilibrium that FDI into a sector should cause an increase in the exports of that sector and a decrease in the exports of other sectors through abstracting other industry’s resources. In the light of our country’s reality, with the increase of FDI enticement in the Hitechnology industry and high added value industry, it will promote these industries’ export and thereby optimize TS. Meanwhile because TS is closely correlative with Industry Structure (IS), Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), IIT and TT, we can draw a conclusion that FDI can have a certain effect on TS, IS, RCA, IIT and TT. The empirical results in the chapter 4 are in accordance with the conclusion of the theoretic model. By above researching, this paper can be propitious to providing the theoretic base and empirical proof for the proper FC policy formulation in our country.Chapter 1 is the introduction. It includes five parts: questions raise, trade and investments Literatures summed up from the theoretical and empirical aspects, the research status quo in domestic academic field, analytical orientation, and structure arrangements of this paper. In iv / 44Chapter 2, a technologyspecific capital and a partial equilibrium model are given and a proposition of the relationship between modity trade and FDI is educed. By expanding the proposition, this dissertation’s central proposition is educed: FDI into a sector should cause an increase in the exports of that sector and a decrease in the exports of other sectors by abstracting other industry’s resources. In the light of our country’s reality, with continuously increasing FDI being put into the capitalintensive and technologyintensive industries after the 1990s’, the increase of FDI will accelerate the outputs and exports of these departments and meanwhile slow down the outputs and exports of other departments. Therefore it will promote these industries’ export and optimize the TS. Meanwhile because TS is closely correlative with IS, RCA, IIT and TT, we can draw a conclusion that FDI can have a certain effect on the TS, IS, RCA, IIT and TT. Therefore, it can influence TS, RCA, IIT and TT since TS can have influence on them. In Chapter 3, the emphasis is on the general description of the FDI and Foreign Trade (FT). From the gross point of view, the speed of FDI enticement and FT growth are much faster than that of GDP growth in China. From the structure point of view, the structural characters of FDI and FT are correlative. From the imports and exports of Foreign Invested Enterprises (FIES) point of view, the exports of FIES have greatly contributed to the increase of export and structural upgrading of export modities in C