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碩士論文fdi與中國對外貿(mào)易績效理論模型與實(shí)證分析(專業(yè)版)

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【正文】 貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)變化的度量,主要是以貿(mào)易額變化為依據(jù)的。 外商直接投資企業(yè)(FIEs)的進(jìn)出口中國 90 年代進(jìn)出口的大幅度增長,在很大程度上得益于 FIEs 進(jìn)出口的快速增長,F(xiàn)IEs 的進(jìn)出口在全國進(jìn)出口比重大幅度上升。 圖 1: 外 商 直 接 投 資 的 產(chǎn) 業(yè) 結(jié) 構(gòu) ( 1979- 2022)第 二 產(chǎn) %第 三 產(chǎn) %第 一 產(chǎn) 業(yè)%資料來源:根據(jù)歷年中國統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒計(jì)算整理而得。在利用 FDI 方面,我國合同 FDI 金額從 1983 年的 億美元增加到 2022 年的 億美元,增長了 倍;實(shí)際利用 FDI 從 1983 年的 億美元增加到 2022 年的 億美元,增長了 倍。因此我們亦可得出:FDI 對貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、顯性比較優(yōu)勢、產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)貿(mào)易和貿(mào)易條件都可以產(chǎn)生一定的影響。在常數(shù)勞動(dòng)力的條件下,我們可知:21L??,或 (1-8)2d?21?L???兩部門的勞動(dòng)工資相同,因此,兩部門的工資變化率也相同。2. FDI 是技術(shù)性資本,不存在跨產(chǎn)業(yè)的自由流動(dòng),并且國內(nèi)資本和 FDI 是獨(dú)立使用的,而勞動(dòng)可以在兩個(gè)部門之間無成本地自由流動(dòng),并在整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)中被充分利用。D)經(jīng)費(fèi),還與原有的技術(shù)積累密切相關(guān) 1。第二部分是本文的核心,包括 4 兩章。本文用定量方法檢驗(yàn)了 FDI 與我國貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)和貿(mào)易條件的作用關(guān)系。第四類是從理論上闡述國際貿(mào)易理論與國際直接投資的融合與發(fā)展(梁志成,2022;吳先明,1999;朱廷珺、朱同,1998) 。因此, 得出的結(jié)論是 FDI 與出口貿(mào)易之間既是互補(bǔ)關(guān)系也是競爭(替代)關(guān)系。(4)貿(mào)易與投資新型關(guān)系進(jìn)入 90 年代,隨著全球經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化的快速發(fā)展,許多學(xué)者分別從 FDI 的動(dòng)機(jī)差異、行業(yè)差別、東道國政策、出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)和工業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、技術(shù)創(chuàng)新以及其他動(dòng)態(tài)因素對貿(mào)易與投資進(jìn)行了多方面的有益探索使貿(mào)易與投資新型關(guān)系的理論研究獲得了很大的發(fā)展。80 年中期, Markusen(1983)和 Svensson(1985)指出商品貿(mào)易和要素流動(dòng)之間的相互關(guān)系為替代性還是互補(bǔ)性,依賴于貿(mào)易和非貿(mào)易要素之間是“合作的”還是“非合作的” 。在 Y 國對 a商品的需求保持不變的情況下,Y 國從 X 國進(jìn)口的 a 商品的數(shù)量自然就下降了。 揭示貿(mào)易與投資關(guān)系的一般理論成果最早研究貿(mào)易與投資關(guān)系的是美國哥倫比亞大學(xué)教授 Mundell(1957) 。 Theoretic Models。論文包括五章,其基本結(jié)構(gòu)是:第 1 章導(dǎo)論,主要包括問題的提出、從理論和實(shí)證兩個(gè)方面對西方文獻(xiàn)綜述進(jìn)行梳理和評析、國內(nèi)學(xué)者的研究狀況、本文的研究定位和結(jié)構(gòu)安排。因此我們亦可得出:FDI 對貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、顯性比較優(yōu)勢、產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)貿(mào)易和貿(mào)易條件都可以產(chǎn)生一定的影響。關(guān)鍵字:外商直接投資;國際商品貿(mào)易;績效;理論模型;實(shí)證分析iii / 44ABSTRACTWith the rapid development of globalization, the relationship between trade and investment is interconnected than ever before and Foreign Capital (FC) has bee the major factor that influences the whole country’s trade growth. On the whole, the interaction and mutual promotion between the international modity trade and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) are both increasing and expanding rapidly. But concretely speaking, what on earth is the exact relationship between the international modity trade and FDI in one country under the condition of economic globalization? How do the changes of one industry’s utilization of FDI influence its import and export as well as other industries? What’s the relationship between China’s FDI enticement and China’s foreign trade? What are the influences our FDI enticement has on our Trade Structure (TS), Export Competitiveness, Intraindustry Trade (IIT), and Terms of Trade (TT)? Theoretically and empirically, this dissertation summarizes and analyzes the questions mentioned above. They are practically significant to issues including further openingup, FDI enticement, and proper FC policy formulation and are also the main content of this research paper. Following the thought in the Kojima Model that direct investment is the synthesis including capital, technology and management skills, this dissertation brings forward the concept of the technology investment and draws a conclusion based on analysis on the partial equilibrium that FDI into a sector should cause an increase in the exports of that sector and a decrease in the exports of other sectors through abstracting other industry’s resources. In the light of our country’s reality, with the increase of FDI enticement in the Hitechnology industry and high added value industry, it will promote these industries’ export and thereby optimize TS. Meanwhile because TS is closely correlative with Industry Structure (IS), Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), IIT and TT, we can draw a conclusion that FDI can have a certain effect on TS, IS, RCA, IIT and TT. The empirical results in the chapter 4 are in accordance with the conclusion of the theoretic model. By above researching, this paper can be propitious to providing the theoretic base and empirical proof for the proper FC policy formulation in our country.Chapter 1 is the introduction. It includes five parts: questions raise, trade and investments Literatures summed up from the theoretical and empirical aspects, the research status quo in domestic academic field, analytical orientation, and structure arrangements of this paper. In iv / 44Chapter 2, a technologyspecific capital and a partial equilibrium model are given and a proposition of the relationship between modity trade and FDI is educed. By expanding the proposition, this dissertation’s central proposition is educed: FDI into a sector should cause an increase in the exports of that sector and a decrease in the exports of other sectors by abstracting other industry’s resources. In the light of our country’s reality, with continuously increasing FDI being put into the capitalintensive and technologyintensive industries after the 1990s’, the increase of FDI will accelerate the outputs and exports of these departments and meanwhile slow down the outputs and exports of other departments. Therefore it will promote these industries’ export and optimize the TS. Meanwhile because TS is closely correlative with IS, RCA, IIT and TT, we can draw a conclusion that FDI can have a certain effect on the TS, IS, RCA, IIT and TT. Therefore, it can influence TS, RCA, IIT and TT since TS can have influence on them. In Chapter 3, the emphasis is on the general description of the FDI and Foreign Trade (FT). From the gross point of view, the speed of FDI enticement and FT growth are much faster than that of GDP growth in China. From the structure point of view, the structural characters of FDI and FT are correlative. From the imports and exports of Foreign Invested Enterprises (FIES) point of view, the exports of FIES have greatly contributed to the increase of export and structural upgrading of export modities in China. Chapter 4 focuses on the empirical analysis of the relationship between FDI and FT to test the expanded conclusion of the model in Chapter 2. The oute has shown: the increases on the FDI in capitalintensive and technologyintensive industries have upgraded the structure of export modities, improved the RCA indexes of this kind of product, and boosted the IIT, meanwhile it also has some influence on TT in China. Chapter 5 summarizes the main co
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