我國股票市場波動的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)影響因素研究(已修改)
2025-07-04 21:36 本頁面
【正文】 . . . . .天津財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)本科畢業(yè)論文中文題目：我國股票市場波動的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)影響因素研究英文題目：Research on the Macroeconomic Impact Factors of Stock Market Fluctuation in China院系名稱：理工學(xué)院統(tǒng)計(jì)系專業(yè)班級：統(tǒng)計(jì)1201班學(xué) 號：2012111127姓 名：張 辰指導(dǎo)教師：黨愛軍 2016年 4月 20日 學(xué)習(xí)參考內(nèi)容摘要眾所周知，股票市場與國民經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展有著密不可分的聯(lián)系，傳播著國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的信號，用“晴雨表”和“氣象臺”來形容合理貼切。在市場機(jī)制中，股票市場的地位不可撼動，且發(fā)揮著主導(dǎo)作用。自1978年改革開放以來，中國的社會經(jīng)濟(jì)迅猛發(fā)展，而股市波動卻很厲害?；?9902014年的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)，本文將統(tǒng)計(jì)分析方法和計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)分析方法相結(jié)合，建立聯(lián)立方程模型并運(yùn)用不同的方法進(jìn)行參數(shù)估計(jì)，以此來說明經(jīng)濟(jì)總量因素、貨幣因素、財(cái)政因素對我國股市波動的影響。從概念出發(fā)，建立模型分析原因，將理論與實(shí)際相結(jié)合，提出政府要放寬政策限制，讓更多中小企業(yè)加入進(jìn)來，與此同時(shí)要規(guī)范場外交易，注重與國際接軌，學(xué)習(xí)國外好的運(yùn)營體系，吸取其失敗的經(jīng)驗(yàn)教訓(xùn)。還要采取多種措施保持股市穩(wěn)定，比如繼續(xù)積極培育市場化的機(jī)構(gòu)投資者，規(guī)范現(xiàn)有機(jī)構(gòu)投資者的運(yùn)行。通過股票交易所從技術(shù)層面設(shè)立暫停交易、漲跌幅限制等措施，由政府出資設(shè)立股市穩(wěn)定基金等合理化建議。關(guān)鍵詞：聯(lián)立方程；股票市場；宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)AbstractAs everyone knows, is inextricably linked to the stock market and the development of the national economy, spreading the signal of the national economy, with the barometer and weather station to describe a reasonable. In the market mechanism, the status of the stock market can not shake, and play a leading role. Since the reform and opening up in 1978, China the rapid development of social economy, and the fluctuation of the stock market is very fierce. Based on the relevant data of 19902011, this paper bines the statistical analysis methods and econometric analysis methods to establish a simultaneous equation model and use different methods to estimate the parameters. In order to illustrate the influence factors of total economic and monetary factors, financial factors on the volatility of China39。s stock market, starting from the concept, model analyze the causes and the bination of theory and practice, and proposed that the government should relax the policy restrictions so that more and more small and mediumsized enterprises to join in, at the same time to regulate the OTC transactions, pay attention to align with the international munity, learning the foreign good operating system, draw lessons from the failure. Various measures should be adopted to maintain the stability of the stock market, such as to foster marketoriented institutional investors actively, regulate the operation of institutional investors. From the technical level to set up through the stock exchange to suspend trading, price limits and other measures by the government funded the establishment of the stock market stabilization fund rationalization proposals.Keywords：Simultaneous Equations；Stock Market；Macroeconomic目 錄一、引言 1（一）研究背景 1 ?。ǘ┭芯恳饬x 1 （三）研究思路 2 二、國內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀 3 三、概念界定及理論基礎(chǔ) 4 ?。ㄒ唬┕善笔袌龅慕缍? 4 （二）股票市場的作用 4 ?。ㄈ├碚摶A(chǔ) 5 四、模型設(shè)定及識別 5 （一）模型構(gòu)建 5 ?。ǘ┠Ｐ妥R別 6 五、模型分析和結(jié)果 6 ?。ㄒ唬?shù)據(jù)來源及處理 6 ?。ǘ?shù)據(jù)檢驗(yàn) 7 ?。ㄈ┠Ｐ凸烙?jì) 7 ?。ㄋ模┙Y(jié)果分析 9 六、股票價(jià)格指數(shù)與經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)律背離的原因分析 10 （一）政府干預(yù)過多 10 ?。ǘ┕墒兄贫炔煌晟?
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