【正文】 大 型 作 業(yè) 報(bào) 告 課程名稱 水井坊（600779）投資價(jià)值分析報(bào)告 課程代碼 140625502 專 業(yè) 工商管理專業(yè) 班 級(jí) 08064A 班 小組成員 小組成員 小組成員 小組成員 經(jīng)濟(jì)與管理學(xué)院水井坊（600779）投資價(jià)值分析報(bào)告水井坊股票投資價(jià)值分析 2 目錄摘 要 ..............................................................................................................................11 公司概況 ................................................................................................................2．公司簡(jiǎn)介 ..........................................................................................................2．經(jīng)營理念 ..........................................................................................................2．經(jīng)營業(yè)績(jī) ..........................................................................................................2．最新動(dòng)態(tài) ..........................................................................................................32 宏觀環(huán)境分析 ........................................................................................................4 ....................................................................4 ................................................................4 ........................................................................5．加息似乎將不可避免 ......................................................................................63 行業(yè)環(huán)境分析 ........................................................................................................8．市場(chǎng)規(guī)模與潛力 ..............................................................................................8. 行業(yè)所處的生命周期 ......................................................................................8．行業(yè)盈利能力 ..................................................................................................9．行業(yè)發(fā)展趨勢(shì) ................................................................................................104 公司財(cái)務(wù)分析 ......................................................................................................12．盈利能力分析 ................................................................................................12．償債能力分析 ................................................................................................13．運(yùn)營能力分析 ................................................................................................16．成長能力分析 ................................................................................................185 股票價(jià)值評(píng)估 ......................................................................................................20．估值模型的選擇 ............................................................................................20．基于股權(quán)自由現(xiàn)金流（FCFE）貼現(xiàn)模型的股票價(jià)值評(píng)估 ........................20 FCFE的確定 .............................................................................................20 β 值測(cè)算及 r的確定 .............................................................................22水井坊股票投資價(jià)值分析 3 評(píng)估結(jié)果 ..................................................................................................23 敏感性分析 ..............................................................................................236 投資建議及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)揭示 ..........................................................................................24附錄 ..............................................................................................................................25附錄一 原始數(shù)據(jù)表 ..............................................................................................25附錄二 水井坊財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo) ......................................................................................26 圖表 1 白酒行業(yè)市盈率一覽 ......................................................................................3圖表 2 消費(fèi)從 2022 年開始低于投資增速 ................................................................4圖表 3 各年齡段人口統(tǒng)計(jì) ..........................................................................................5圖表 4 消費(fèi)占 GDP 的比重 ........................................................................................6圖表 5 CPI 的走勢(shì) ........................................................................................................6圖表 6 19902022 年我國白酒產(chǎn)量 ............................................................................8圖表 7 盈利能力分析 ................................................................................................13圖表 8 短期償債能力分析 ........................................................................................14圖表 9 長期償債能力分析 ........................................................................................15圖表 10 運(yùn)營能力分析 ..............................................................................................17圖表 11 成長能力分析 ..............................................................................................19表格 1 白酒板塊個(gè)股收益率 ....................................................................................10表格 2 折舊、攤銷等非付現(xiàn)成本測(cè)算 ..............