【正文】 本科畢業(yè)論文 題 目 ： 影響人民幣匯率的因素 專(zhuān) 業(yè)： 金融學(xué) 班 級(jí)： 學(xué)生姓名： 指導(dǎo)教師： 論文提交日期： 年 月 日 論文答辯日期： 年 月 日 畢業(yè)設(shè)計(jì)（論文）任務(wù)書(shū) 專(zhuān)業(yè) 班 學(xué)生： 畢業(yè)設(shè)計(jì)（論文）題目： 影響人民幣匯率的因素分析 畢業(yè)設(shè)計(jì)（論文）內(nèi)容： 面對(duì)目前匯率波動(dòng)的復(fù)雜情況，本文從將國(guó)民收入、通貨膨脹水平、貨幣供應(yīng)量、利率、外匯儲(chǔ)備，以現(xiàn)行的匯率形成機(jī)制為背景，對(duì)影響人民幣匯率波動(dòng)的主要經(jīng)濟(jì)因素進(jìn)行深入分析。 畢業(yè)設(shè)計(jì)（論文）專(zhuān)題部分： 一、人民幣匯率基本理論 二、當(dāng)前我國(guó)人民幣匯率現(xiàn)狀 三、影響人民幣匯率的因素分析 四、促進(jìn)人民幣匯率合理變動(dòng)的建議 起止時(shí)間： 指導(dǎo)教師： 簽字 年 月 日 摘要 近年來(lái)，國(guó)際金融領(lǐng)域發(fā)生了非常深刻的變化，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)呈現(xiàn)全 球化趨勢(shì)，匯率作為一國(guó)與國(guó)際往來(lái)的橋梁，在國(guó)際金融領(lǐng)域中扮演著越來(lái)越重要的角色。隨著中國(guó)入世，中國(guó)與世界其他各國(guó)將融合的更加緊密，商品、資本、勞動(dòng)力的流動(dòng)更加頻繁，人民幣匯率作為我國(guó)對(duì)外經(jīng)濟(jì)往來(lái)中的貨幣價(jià)格指標(biāo)，也開(kāi)始倍受關(guān)注。自新中國(guó)成立以來(lái)，經(jīng)過(guò)幾個(gè)發(fā)展階段，人民幣匯率制度也由固定匯率逐步走向有管理的浮動(dòng)。在固定匯率制度時(shí)期，人民幣匯率的波動(dòng)更多的是為了適應(yīng)當(dāng)期的經(jīng)濟(jì)政策，各種因素對(duì)人民幣匯率的影響被隱蔽化，隨著我國(guó)匯率制度的不斷改革，人民幣匯率最終將走向市場(chǎng)化，研究影響人民幣匯率變動(dòng)的因素變得更加重要 。 中國(guó)人民銀行在 2020 年 7 月 21 日宣布人民幣匯率制度的改革再次啟動(dòng)，且伴隨人民幣匯率的逐步市場(chǎng)化，人民幣對(duì)美元匯率主要呈現(xiàn)穩(wěn)定的升值趨勢(shì)，而與此同時(shí)，人民幣對(duì)其他主要貨幣的匯率則呈現(xiàn)有升有貶的狀態(tài)。 人民幣匯率制度進(jìn)行改革，并向上調(diào)整了人民幣匯率水平，即開(kāi)始實(shí)行以市場(chǎng)供求為基礎(chǔ)、參考一籃子貨幣進(jìn)行調(diào)節(jié)、有管理的浮動(dòng)匯率制度，并根據(jù)對(duì)匯率合理均衡水平的測(cè)算，人民幣對(duì)美元升值 2%，由 1 美元兌 元人民幣調(diào)為 1 美元兌 元人民幣。但對(duì)人民幣的關(guān)注并未轉(zhuǎn)移，從“熱錢(qián)”不斷的流入就可以看到。 針對(duì)這種情況，央行將進(jìn)一步發(fā)揮市場(chǎng)供求在人民幣匯率形成中的基礎(chǔ)性作用，完善有管理的浮動(dòng)匯率制度，增強(qiáng)人民幣匯率彈性，保持人民幣匯率在合理均衡水平上的基本穩(wěn)定，作為人民幣匯率的主基調(diào)。 面對(duì)目前匯率波動(dòng)的復(fù)雜情況，本文從將國(guó)民收入、通貨膨脹水平、 貨幣供應(yīng)量、利率、外匯儲(chǔ)備，以現(xiàn)行的匯率形成機(jī)制為背景，對(duì)影響人民幣匯率波動(dòng)的主要經(jīng)濟(jì)因素進(jìn)行深入分析。 本文旨在揭示各種因素對(duì)人民幣匯率的影響機(jī)制，進(jìn)而為管理當(dāng)局采取必要的經(jīng)濟(jì)手段使人民幣匯率在合理均衡水平上小幅波動(dòng)提供依據(jù)，以此來(lái)保障中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的平穩(wěn)增長(zhǎng)。 關(guān)鍵字 ： 人民幣；匯率波動(dòng)；影響因素 ； 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng) Abstract In recent years, the occurrence of a very profound changes in international financial field, the world economy has shown the trend of globalization, the exchange rate as a bridge of China and international exchanges, plays an increasingly important role in the field of international finance. With China39。s accession to the WTO, China and the rest of the world will integrate more closely, goods, capital and labor mobility bee more frequent, the RMB exchange rate as China39。s foreign economic relations in the currency price index, also has paid more attention to. Since the founding of new China, after several stages of development, the RMB exchange rate system from a fixed exchange rate to a managed float. In the period of fixed exchange rate system, the RMB exchange rate volatility is more adapt to the current economic policy and the influence of various factors on the RMB exchange rate have been concealed. With the continuous reform of China39。s exchange rate system, the RMB exchange rate will eventually bee the market, to study the influencing factors of RMB exchange rate is more important. The people39。s Bank of China announced on July 21, 2020 that the RMB exchange rate system reform started again, and with the RMB exchange rate market, the RMB exchange rate against the dollar has steady appreciation trend, while at the same time, it presents the RMB exchange rate against other major currencies or down there state. The reform of RMB exchange rate system, and adjust the RMB exchange rate upward, which began to implement based on market supply and demand with reference to a basket of currencies, a managed floating exchange rate system, and according to a reasonable and balanced level of exchange rate, the yuan against the dollar 2%, from 1 dollar to yuan adjusted to 1. . dollar yuan. But the yuan concerned did not transfer, from the hot money continuously flows can see. In view of this situation, the central bank will further play the basic role of the market supply and demand in the RMB exchange rate formation, improve the managed floating exchange rate system, enhance the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate, keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level, the RMB exchange rate as the main tone. In the face of the plex situation of exchange rate fluctuations at present, this paper from the national ine, inflation, money supply, interest rate, foreign exchange reserves, with the background of the current exchange rate formation mechanism, indepth analysis of the main economic factors affecting the volatility of RMB exchange rate. This paper aims to reveal the influence mechanism of various factors on the RMB exchange rate, and for the authorities to take the necessary economic measures to make RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level slight fluctuations provide the basis in order to ensure steady economic growth in china. Key words: RMB。 exchange rate fluctuation。 influence factors。 economic growth 目 錄 引言 ....................................................... 1 第一章 人民幣匯率基本理論 .................................. 2 ....................................... 2 人民幣匯率的概論 .................................... 2 匯率決定理論 ........................................ 3 購(gòu)買(mǎi)力平價(jià)理論 .................................. 3 利率平價(jià) 理論 .................................... 4 國(guó)際收支說(shuō) ..................................... 4 第二章 當(dāng)前我國(guó)人民幣匯率現(xiàn)狀 ............................... 5 人民幣匯率形成機(jī)制演變 ............................... 5 現(xiàn)行體制下人民幣匯率現(xiàn)狀 ............................. 7 第三章 影響人民幣匯率的因素分析 ............................ 12 ........................................ 12 .......................................... 13 ............................................ 14 ............................................ 14 .......................................... 14 第四章 促進(jìn)人民幣匯率合理變動(dòng)的建議 ........................ 16 逐步完善匯率形成機(jī)制，有目的的減少政府干預(yù) .......... 16 完善外匯市場(chǎng)，防止通貨膨脹 .......................... 17 .................................. 17 ............................ 18 結(jié)論 ...................................................... 19 參考文獻(xiàn) .................................................. 20 致謝 ....................................... 錯(cuò)誤 !未定義書(shū)簽。 1 引言 2020 年，人民幣匯率的改革已進(jìn)入了第十個(gè)年頭。我國(guó)央行副行長(zhǎng)易綱先生在2020 年年底表示“人民幣匯率離自由浮動(dòng)不遠(yuǎn)了”。那么，人民 幣匯