【正文】 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 RO E min u s CA P M Cost of E q u it yPrice/Equity BookA c c o u n t ing M e a s u r e s Fai l( RO CE S p r e a d )V a lue L ine Ind u s t r ia ls 1 9 9 4R2 = 0 .3 20 . 11102 0 1 5 1 0 5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 RO CE min u s CA P M Cost of Ca p it a lTotal Capital Price/BookE c o n o mic Ca s h Flo w M e a s u r e s Dou b leA b il it y t o E x p la in V a lueCF RO I S p r e a d V /L In d u s t r ia ls 1 9 9 4R2 = 0 .6 10 . 11101 0 5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 CFRO I min u s Di s c o u n t Ra t eValue/Cost THE BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP P:\MasterDk\ BCG?s Value Management Framework An Overview for MBA Rt rt (Ppt) Slide 8 March 2, 1998 2:01 PM 8 Copyright 1996 BCG/HOLT Planning Associates All Rights Reserved V a l u e / C o s t V e rs u s R OC E C A P M C o s t o f C a p i t a lV a l u e L i n e I n d u s t ri a l s 1 9 9 4R2 = 0 . 2 80 . 1110 2 0 1 5 1 0 5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 R OC E C A P M C o s t o f C a p i t a lValue/CostV a l u e / C os t V e rs u s R O E C A P M C os t of E qu i t yV a l u e Li n e I n du s t ri a l s 1 9 9 4R2 = 0 . 2 60 . 11105 4 0 3 0 2 0 1 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 R O E C A P M C os of E qu i t yValue/CostE c o n o mic Ca s h Flo w M e a s u r e s Dou b leA b il it y t o E x p la in V a lueCF RO I S p r e a d V /L In d u s t r ia ls 1 9 9 4R2 = 0 .6 10 . 11101 0 5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 CFRO I min u s Di s c o u n t Ra t eValue/Cost THE BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP P:\MasterDk\ BCG?s Value Management Framework An Overview for MBA Rt rt (Ppt) Slide 9 March 2, 1998 2:01 PM 9 Copyright 1996 BCG/HOLT Planning Associates All Rights Reserved H i g h R e tu r n s F a d e D o w n w a r d a n d L o w R e tu r n s F a d e U p w a r d 。T h e F a d e Pa tte r n O c c u r s N o Ma tte r W h a t th e Sta r ti n g Ye a r . . .A v e r a g e O p e r a ti n g C F R O I b y D e c i l e 1 9 7 0 , 1 9 8 0 o r 1 9 8 71 0505101520251970 1975 1980 1985 1990Ye a rA v e r a g eO p e r a ti n gC F R O I1 D e c i l e2 D e c i l e3 D e c i l e4 D e c i l e5 D e c i l e6 D e c i l e7 D e c i l e8 D e c i l e9 D e c i l e1 0 D e c i l eTracking the Sample of 1970 Companies through time Tracking the Sample of 1980 Companies through time Tracking the Sample of 1987 Companies through time Note the averages dispersions have risen between 19701987, hypothesized to be related to supplyside policy changes THE BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP P:\MasterDk\ BCG?s Value Management Framework An Overview for MBA Rt rt (Ppt) Slide 10 March 2, 1998 2:01 PM 10 Copyright 1996 BCG/HOLT Planning Associates All Rights Reserved THE MARKET EXPECTS THE PERFORMANCE OF MERCK TO FADE ... (REGRESS TOWARD MEAN PERFORMANCE) Fade = 0% Fade = 10% Illustrates Perpetuity Trap: Overvalues High Return Firms Dramatically THE BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP P:\MasterDk\ BCG?s Value Management Framework An Overview for MBA Rt rt (Ppt) Slide 11 March 2, 1998 2:01 PM 11 Copyright 1996 BCG/HOLT Planning Associates All Rights Reserved R e l a t i v e T o t a l S h a r e h o l d e r R e t u r n ( T S R ) v e r s u s S t e r n Mo d e l T S R 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 11 0 05 00501001502001 0 0 5 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 S t e r n Mo d e l T S RActual TSRR e l a t i v e T o t a l S h a r e h o l d e r R e t u r n ( T S R ) v e r s u s E . P . S . Mo d e l T S R 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 11 0 05 00501001502001 0 0 5 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 E . P . S . Mo d e l T S RActual TSRR e l a t i v e T o t a l S h a r e h o l d e r R e t u r n ( T S R ) v e r s u s C a s h F l o w Mo d e l T S R 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 11 0 05 00501001502001 0 0 5 0 0 50 100 150 C a s h F l o w Mo d e l T S RActual TSRR e l a t i v e T o t a l S h a r e h o l d e r R e t u r n ( T S R ) v e r s u s B C G Mo d e l T S R 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 11 0 05 00501001502001 0 0 5 0 0 50 100 150 200 250B C G Mo d e l T S RActual TSRR2= N=750 R2= N=750 R2= N=750 R2= N=750 THE BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP P:\MasterDk\ BCG?s Value Management Framework An Overview for MBA Rt rt (Ppt) Slide 12 March 2, 1998 2:01 PM 12 Copyright 1996 BCG/HOLT Planning Associates All Rights Reserved S t e rn S t e w a rt P e rf orm a n c e 1 0 0 0M a rk e t V a l u e A dd e d v s . E c on om i c V a l u e A dd e d 1 9 8 8 A f t e r O u t l i e r E l i m i n a t i on5 0 0 005000100001 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 500 1000 E c on o m i c V a l u e A dd e dMarket Value AddedOn the 24 groups of 25 firms, Stewart claims a 44% R2. This higher correlation relates to the elimination of 300 panies instead of 31 extreme outliers and the grouping of panies that serves to eliminate the intragroup variance. N=861 R2= MVA v e r s u s EVA Ste r n Ste w a r t 1991 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 001000020230300004000050000 3 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1000 2023 E c on o m i c V a l u e A d de d ( E V A )Market Value AddedR2 = MV A v e r s u s C VA B C G 1 9 9 12 0 0 0 01 0 0 0 0010000202303000040000500002 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1000 2023 3000 C a s h Va l u e A d d e d (C VA )Market Value AddedR2 = T o t a l S h a r e h o