【正文】 2 Copyright 1996 BCG/HOLT Planning Associates All Rights Reserved WHAT GETS MEASURED GETS DONE THE BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP P:\MasterDk\ BCG?s Value Management Framework An Overview for MBA Rt rt (Ppt) Slide 3 March 2, 1998 2:01 PM 3 Copyright 1996 BCG/HOLT Planning Associates All Rights Reserved Traditional Valuation Techniques Versus BCG?s Valuation Framework Traditional Valuation Techniques Forecast nominal cash flows by estimating PL line items and changes to the balance sheet Estimate terminal value with a perpetuity of the forecasted last year?s cash flow Determine cost of capital by weighting equity CAPM cost with debt cost Discount the cash flows and terminal value to present value with the weighted average cost of capital Observations on Missing Elements No performance measure to determine if the business is achieving returns above or below the cost of capital or if the trend in those returns is up or down No fade in performance to determine likely cash flows in a petitive environment Discount rates determined by past price changes, not future likely cash flows No extensive empirical testing BCG?s Valuation Framework Translate accounting statements to gross cash flows and gross cash investments in constant dollars to produce cash on cash returns Translate cash on cash returns to economic performance measures (CFROIs) by adjusting for asset life and mix of depreciating versus nondepreciating assets Determine sustainable asset growth rates Fade CFROIs and asset growth rates toward corporate averages consistent with life cycle theory and empirical evidence to estimate future cash flows (replaces terminal valuation) Estimate market derived real discount rate by equating the present value of the cash flows for a large aggregate to the sum of the prices of debt and equity Apply the market derived discount rate to the cash flows derived from fading economic performance to determine market valuation。 on Corporate Tax Rate Correlation between Inflation and Tax Rates: % CFROI Actual R2 = THE BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP P:\MasterDk\ BCG?s Value Management Framework An Overview for MBA Rt rt (Ppt) Slide 20 March 2, 1998 2:01 PM 20 Copyright 1996 BCG/HOLT Planning Associates All Rights Reserved TO SMOOTH ECONOMIC CYCLES, BUT INCORPORATE STRUCTURAL SHIFTS, BCG?S VALUATION MODEL ASSUMES CURRENT CFROI LEVELS FADE TOWARD THE 5YEAR PAST MEDIAN OF THE DISCOUNT RATE SAMPLE AT A 10% RATE 01234567891011121950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995Year%Annual CFROI?s 5Year Past Median CFROI?s THE BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP P:\MasterDk\ BCG?s Value Management Framework An Overview for MBA Rt rt (Ppt) Slide 21 March 2, 1998 2:01 PM 21 Copyright 1996 BCG/HOLT Planning Associates All Rights Reserved BCG?S VALUATION MODEL ANTICIPATES THAT THE GROSS ASSET GROWTH RATE OF ALL COMPANIES IN THE USA FADE TOWARD THE LONG TERM ECONOMY AVERAGE 32101234567891950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995Year%Annual GDP Growth Rates % Compounded Annual Growth Rate in GDP from 19501996 Unlike CFROI?s, where clear trends are evident, there does not appear to be a clear trend in growth rates for the economy. Consequently, a long term average smooths out the annual fluctuations with no loss in investor anticipated trend. THE BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP P:\MasterDk\ BCG?s Value Management Framework An Overview for MBA Rt rt (Ppt) Slide 22 March 2, 1998 2:01 PM 22 Copyright 1996 BCG/HOLT Planning Associates All Rights Reserved Price = Discounted Present Value of Expected Future Net Cash Flows THE INVESTORS? DISCOUNT RATE IS THAT RATE WHICH EQUATES THE PRESENT VALUE OF CASH FLOWS FROM BCG?S VALUATION MODEL TO THE MARKET VALUE OF DEBT AND EQUITY Market Value of Debt and Equity of SP 400 Sample $3,474 Billion $1,903 Billion of Assets Returning % and Growing at % per year Fading 10% toward % CFROI Solve for the Rate at Which Present Value of Cash Flows Equals Price September = % (Weighted Averaged Real AfterCorporateTax Cost of Capital) Answer tells us what the Market is presently requiring as a Rate of Return THE BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP P:\MasterDk\ BCG?s Value Management Framework An Overview for MBA Rt rt (Ppt) Slide 23 March 2, 1998 2:01 PM 23 Copyright 1996 BCG/HOLT Planning Associates All Rights Reserved CALCULATION OF FUTURE CASH FLOWS AND PRESENT VALUES 1996 DISCOUNT RATE SAMPLE THE BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP P:\MasterDk\ BCG?s Value Management Framework An Overview for MBA Rt rt (Ppt) Slide 24 March 2, 1998 2:01 PM 24 Copyright 1996 BCG/HOLT Planning Associates All Rights Reserved THE BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP P:\MasterDk\ BCG?s Value Management Framework An Overview for MBA Rt rt (Ppt) Slide 25 March 2, 1998 2:01 PM 25 Copyright 1996 BCG/HOLT Planning Associates All Rights Reserved PAST RESOURCES COMMITTED 1996 DISCOUNT RATE SAMPLE THE BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP P:\MasterDk\ BCG?s Value Management Framework An Overview for MBA Rt rt (Ppt) Slide 26 March 2, 1998 2:01 PM 26 Copyright 1996 BCG/HOLT Planning Associates All Rights Reserved CALCULATION OF ASSET ADDITIONS 1996 DISCOUNT RATE SAMPLE THE BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP P:\MasterDk\ BCG?s Value Management Framework An Overview for MBA Rt rt (Ppt) Slide 27 March 2, 1998 2:01 PM 27 Copyright 1996 BCG/HOLT Planning Associates All Rights Reserved THE BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP P:\MasterDk\ BCG?s Value Management Framework An Overview for MBA Rt rt (Ppt) Slide 28 March 2, 1998 2:01 PM 28 Copyri