在合并的欲望涌動：并購趨勢與分析(已改無錯字)
2022-09-13 18:43:15 本頁面
【正文】 d in 2008 and early 2009, there are encouraging signs in the credit markets. Deal financing is picking up, interest rates are falling, credit spreads are narrowing, and bond issuance is at record highs. Along with the falling cost of debt, we have also seen a major increase in bond issuance. . corporate bond issuancehit an annual record of $ trillion in 2009, just ahead of the issuance in 2007 and up nearly 34% pared to of this increase has been the result of latent demand that built up during the credit freeze in 2008. Government initiatives and low interest rates also helped. Improvement in the credit markets is encouraging, but banks are not likely to return to precrisis mode any time soon. Even if the volume of loans recovers, lenders are likely to be more conservative on the terms in the future than they were in the past. Tis might include, for example, insisting on a lower ratio of debt to the pany operating cash flow or as a percentage of total capitalization. Banks remain fearful that another market downturn will leave them with vulnerable debt instruments. Also, banks are operating under the scrutiny of tighter capital requirements, limiting their ability to expand Mamp。A financing. Some of the largest institutional investors have already begun to cut back on their investments in private equity. For example, California Public Employees Retirement System, the biggest pension plan in the ., has reduced its allocation to private equity by more than 60%. In addition, over 40% of the largest university endowments are currently above their target allocations to private equity, suggesting they are also likely to reduce their investments in the future. These factors have led to the virtual disappearance of large private equity deals. Based on trends through the frst half of 2009, we estimate private equity Mamp。A to be about $70 billion in 2009, or 34% of total deals, much lower than the 15% average over the past decade . For the foreseeable future, private equity deals will likely be smaller, and will include more upfront cash. Lower amounts of leverage may reduce returns, as the use of leverage has accounted for between onequarter and onethird of returns. Transaction fees of about 1 to 2 percent will e under pressure as well, as fees this high are hard to justify in an environment of lower expected returns.Implications for Investors Resurgent Mamp。A activity is by no means inevitable, but the nowevidence strongly points toward a reversal of the 20082009 decline. Should deal volume pick up, investors need to be prepared to assess these transactions properly. Investors should ask three question when panies announce a deal: 1. Does the deal have material economic consequences for ShareHolders of the buying and selling panies? 2. Is the buyer sending signals by choosing to pay for the deal with stock instead of cash? 3. What is the stock market’s likely reaction?譯文： 在合并的欲望涌動：并購趨勢與分析我們可能站在兼并與收購（M＆A）熱潮的另一前端。從歷史上看，并購活動高漲也恰逢在經(jīng)濟(jì)和股票市場改善時。下圖顯示了過去15年里交易量與S＆P500的價格指數(shù)水平的關(guān)系。2009年3月低點(diǎn)股市強(qiáng)勁反彈，信貸條件大幅度改善，公司通過尋求更多的交易加強(qiáng)其戰(zhàn)略據(jù)點(diǎn)。值得注意的是，根據(jù)研究顯示，一些在年初制定收購周期并斷言這個收購周期的最終發(fā)展情況的公司，給股東帶來了更高的回報。全球并購數(shù)量和標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)數(shù)目（萬億美元）標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)
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