shortrun(國際金融-香港大學,wongkafu)-閱讀頁
2025-02-26 16:15本頁面
【正文】 E1 XX An increase in E leads to an improvement in CA and an increase in equilibrium output in goods market. In order to keep CA constant, for this output level, E must decrease to depress export and raise import. 79 Output, Y Exchange Rate, E DD1 Current account after a temporary moary expansion Yf E1 AA1 XX (CA=a) AA2 XX (CAa) Current account improves 80 How quickly does current account respond to foreign exchange rate changes? 81 Jcurve ?CA worsens immediately after a real currency depreciation and improves only some months later. ?Because most import and export orders are placed several months in advance and ?the primary effect of the depreciation is to raise the value of the precontracted level of imports in terms of domestic products. 82 Empirical Evidence: ?6 12 months lag ?only about 50% of the full quantity adjustment takes place in the first three years ?90 % in the first five years 83 Reasons for lag ?Imperfect dissemination of information, during which importers recognize that relative prices have changed ?lag in deciding to place new import order ?production lag even after new import order is placed 84 Reasons for lag: hysteresis ?producers sometimes relocate their factories to the country where costs are lower because of an exchange rate advantage. Even after the exchange rate has returned to old levels, a pany that decided to move operations abroad when the dollar was high might never move back, after having incurred the costs of moving. ., hysteresis. 85 End of J curve Real depreciation takes place Time Long run effect of real depreciation on the CA Jcurve 86 Jcurve ?Implication: If expansionary moary policy actually depresses output in the short run, the domestic interest rate will need to fall further than it normally would to clear the home money market. 87 Exchange rate passthrough ?The percentage by which import prices rise when the home currency depreciates by one percent is known as the degree of passthrough from the exchange rate to import prices. 88 Reason(s) for inplete passthrough ?International market segmentation: imperfectly petitive firms will charge different prices for the same product in different countries. ?The firm may wait to find out if the currency movement reflects a definite trend before making price and production mitments that are costly to undo. 89 Want to know more... ?Chapter 16 of Krugman and Obstfeld ?the appendix, in particular, if you want to know more about ?The relationship between ISLM and DDAA analysis ?The conditions under which CA improves after a depreciation 90 謝謝觀看 /歡迎下載 BY FAITH I MEAN A VISION OF GOOD ONE CHERISHES AND THE ENTHUSIASM THAT PUSHES ONE TO SEEK ITS FULFILLMENT REGARDLESS OF OBSTACLES. BY FAITH I BY FAITH
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