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需要跟蹤支付的時間 No consensus on method to determine risk adjustment 沒有統(tǒng)一的確定風險調(diào)整的方法 Allocation and timing of surplus flows is arbitrary 盈余的分配和時間的確定是主觀臆斷的 16 General RiskAdjusted Discount Technique Formula PV (P) = PV (L) + PV (E) + PV (TUW) + PV (TII) where: PV = present value operator 折現(xiàn)指數(shù) P = premiums 保險費 L = losses and loss adjustment expense 損失和損失調(diào)整費用 E = underwriting expenses 承保費用 TUW = taxes on underwriting profit or loss 承保利潤稅金 TII = taxes on investment ine 投資收益稅金 17 Risk Classification 風險分類 For automobile insurance 機動車輛保險 Age of driver 駕駛員年齡 Sex and marital status of driver駕駛員性別和婚姻狀況 Type of vehicle 車輛類型 Use of vehicle 車輛用途 Driving record of driver 駕駛員駕駛記錄 Mileage driven 行駛里程 Territory where vehicle is garaged 車輛??康攸c Other driver characteristics – use of predictive modeling 其它關(guān)于駕駛員的特征可由預(yù)測模型得到 18 Additional Sources 補充的資料來源 Chapter 3 – Ratemaking by Charles McClenahan in the Foundations of Casualty Actuarial Science Can purchase at: Casualty Actuarial Society Ratemaking Seminar handouts A Comparison of Property/Casualty Insurance Financial Pricing Models by D’Arcy and Gorvett Ratemaking: A Financial Economics Approach by D’Arcy and Dyer