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tors 損失發(fā)展因素 Inflation 通貨膨脹 Other time dependent factors (auto insurance) 其它受時間影響的因素(機動車輛保險) Traffic density 交通擁擠度 Law enforcement efforts 法律執(zhí)行力度 Legal rules governing loss settlements 陪付結(jié)算的法律條例 Trending adjusts for time dependent factors 對受時間影響的因素進(jìn)行趨勢調(diào)整 Severity 額度 Frequency 頻率 10 Ratemaking Methods 保險費率厘定的方法 Loss ratio method 損失率方法 Percent rate change = (AE)/E 百分率變化 A = Actual loss ratio 實際損失率 E = Expected loss ratio 期望損失率 = 1 – Expense Ratio – Underwriting Profit Margin 1 – 費用比率 – 承保利率 Pure premium method 純保險費方法 G = (P+F)/(1V) G = Gross premium 保險費總額 P = Pure premium = frequency x severity 純保險費 F = Fixed expenses 固定費用 V = Variable expenses (and profit) 可變費用(利潤) 11 Examples Loss Ratio Method Actual LR = 66% Expected LR = 60% Percent rate change = (6660)/60 = +10% Pure Premium Method Pure premium = 400 Fixed expenses = 50 Variable expenses = 25% Gross premium = (400+50)/() = 600 12 Methods for Determining the Appropriate Profit Margin – 1 確定恰當(dāng)利潤率的方法 Standard Underwriting Profit Margin 標(biāo)準(zhǔn)承保利潤率 5% (or some other constant) ( 或其它常數(shù)) Ignores investment ine 忽略投資收益 Ignores leverage (Premium/Surplus ratio) 忽略(保險費 /盈余)比率 Standard Profit Margin minus Investment Ine 標(biāo)準(zhǔn)