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or climate funds under threat in the EU and elsewhere ?Danger of backtracking on environmental policies 18 Five lessons from research ? Early, rapid and sizeable responses are key ? Social safety and propoor policies need support from the outset ? Policies need to account for behavior and the political economy ? Immediate responses cannot ignore implications for development ? Global crisis needs a global solution—target stimuli where the marginal impact will be the greatest* * How to Solve the Global Economic Crisis—Justin Yifu Lin, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, World Bank 19 Seven lessons from evaluation ?Emphasize not only volume, but also quality ?Focus on poverty from the outset ?Build in the environment and climate change ?Seek selectivity and adaptability of response ?Stress coordination among partners ?Focus on monitoring and evaluation ?Organize for early warning 20 The World Bank Group and the crisis The WBG has a key role through: ?Financial support ?Policy advice and knowledge sharing ?Catalytic role in crosscountry policy coordination ?Helping to balance national and global goals ?Long term partnership with countries, even when its share in rescue packages is modest 21 IV: Outlook: Uncertainty at an alltime high 22 ―…all consequential events in human history have e from unexpected, rare occurrences‖ Nassim Nicholas Taleb Unusual Times 23 Triple danger Economic, social, environment ?Global economic downturn ? Outlook highly uncertain ? The timing of the recovery depends critically on policy actions ?Rising poverty worldwide ? The situation exacerbated by growing unemployment ?Climate crisis ? Environmental devastation and global warming can derail all progress This could be an inflection point for our pla A new development paradigm is needed 24 When a crisis prompts action 危機(jī) – Danger and Opportunity ?Brazil’s fiscal responsibility law。 Korea’s financial sector actions…. ?China revitalized after the Asian crisis ? Liberalization of the housing market ? Easing restrictions on privatization of medium SOEs ? Acceleration of the entry to WTO ? Investment in releasing bottlenecks highway, port facility, telemunication, high education ? China today… ? Opportunities in human capital。 openness