金融危機(jī)的國(guó)際經(jīng)驗(yàn)及現(xiàn)實(shí)思考(已修改)
2024-12-20 12:38 本頁(yè)面
【正文】 Worldwide Lessons from Financial Crises 金融危機(jī)的國(guó) 際經(jīng)驗(yàn) 及 現(xiàn)實(shí) 思考 Vinod Thomas, DirectorGeneral amp。 Senior Vice President Independent Evaluation Group, World Bank China Center for Economic Research Peking University February 19, 2022 2 Table of Contents I. The Crisis II. Policy Responses III. Outlook 3 I. The Crisis ?The subprime mortgage bubble in the US was the detonator of the current crisis ?The extensive use of derivatives made the exposure to the mortgage crisis explosive ?The chain reaction was globalized because of: ? The links among the financial sectors in OECD and emerging countries ? The high dependence of international trade on US demand 4 The extent of damage so far ? Deepening recession since mid2022 with multiple downwards revisions of growth ? Contagion from the developed to emerging and less developed economies ? Downward cycle through ? Trade and weakening demand ? Capital flow ? Remittance ? Commodity price ? Reinforcing expectation for global depression and deflation 5 The sharpest global decline since 1970 GDP Growth 42024681019701973197619791982198519881991199419972000200320062009Percent changeA d v a n c e d e c o n o m i e s E m e r g i n g a n d d e v e l o p i n g e c o n o m i e s W o r l d6 Both OECD and emerging markets fall – no decoupling 6420246810120 2 4 6 8 10 12A v e r a g e a n n u a l g r o w t h G D P , 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 ( % )Annual growth GDP, 2009 (%)I n d i aC h i n aI n d o n e si aS o u t h A f r i caB r a z i lS a u d i A r a b i aA r g e n t i n aR u ssi aT u r ke yK o r e aJ a p a nU S AUKG e r m a n yM e x i coS p a i nI t a l yF r a n ceC a n a d aA u st r a l i aSource: World Development Indicators 2022 and IMF World Economic Outlook Update, January 28, 2022 7 Dramatic fall in Asia’s rapid growth ?China: ? Growth practically ground to a halt in 2022 Q4Annual growth rate in 2022 expected to fall to % from % in 2022 ? Exports plunged % yearonyear in January 2022—the largest drop in almost 13 years ? Imports down 43% yearonye
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