【正文】 ? Risk Categories ? Historical information Tools Techniques ? Documentation Reviews ? Information Gathering Techniques ? Checklists ? Assumptions Analysis ? Diagramming Techniques Source: PMBOK Guide 2023 Version 169。 2023 RobbinsGioia, Inc. 1116 Inputs ? Risk Categories (See Note Pages) ? Technical, quality, or performance risks ? Project Management risks ? Organization risks ? External risks ? Historical Information ? Project files ? Published information Risk Identification Source: PMBOK Guide 2023 Version 169。 2023 RobbinsGioia, Inc. 1118 Tools Techniques ? Documentation Reviews ? Informationgathering techniques ? Brainstorming ? Delphi technique ? Interviewing ? Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats (SWOT) analysis ? Checklists – Organized by source of risk Risk Identification Source: PMBOK Guide 2023 Version 169。 2023 RobbinsGioia, Inc. 1120 SWOT Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats Internal External Build On Eliminate or Reduce Mitigate Exploit Risk Identification Source: PMBOK Guide 2023 Version 169。 2023 RobbinsGioia, Inc. 1122 Qualitative Risk Analysis The process of assessing the impacts and likelihood of identified risks. ?Qualitative risk analysis requires that the probability and consequences of the risks be evaluated using established qualitativeanalysis method and tools Source: PMBOK Guide 2023 Version 169。 2023 RobbinsGioia, Inc. 1124 Inputs ? Risk management plan ? Identified Risks – evaluation of risks identified during the risk identification process and their potential impacts on the project ? Project Status – identification of risks as the project progresses through its life cycle ? Project Type – determines the amount of risk ? Common or recurrent type have less risk ? Stateoftheart, first time technology, or highly plex projects have more risk Qualitative Risk Analysis Source: PMBOK Guide 2023 Version 169。 2023 RobbinsGioia, Inc. 1126 Tools Techniques ? Risk Probability and Impact ? Risk probability is the likelihood that a risk will occur ? Risk consequences – is the effect on project objectives if the risk event occurs ? Probability/Impact Risk Rating Matrix – ? Risk Probability Scale falls between (no probability) and certainty) ? Ordinal scale – rankedorder scale, such as very low, low, moderate, high, and very high ? Cardinal scale – assign values to these impacts. These values are usually linear (.1/ .3/ .t/ .7/ .9) or nonlinear (.05/ .1/ .2/ .4/ .8/) (See note pages) Qualitative Risk Analysis Source: PMBOK Guide 2023 Version 169。 2023 RobbinsGioia, Inc. 1128 Outputs ? Overall Risk Ranking – indicates the overall risk position of a project relative to other projects by paring risk scores ? List of Prioritized Risks – Grouped by: ? Rank (high, moderate,low) ? Those requiring immediate response and those that can be handled at a later date ? Those that affect cost, schedule, functionality, and quality. ? Significant risks should have a description of the basis for the assessed probability and impact Qualitative Risk Analysis Source: PMBOK Guide 2023 Version 169。 2023 RobbinsGioia, Inc. 1130 Quantitative Risk Analysis ? Determine probability of achieving a specific project objective ? Quantify the risk exposure for the project, and determine the size of cost and schedule contingency reserves that may be needed ? Identify risks requiring the most attention by quantifying their relative contribution to project risk ? Identify achievable and realistic cost, schedule, or scope targets Measuring numerically the probability and consequences of risks and estimating their implication for project objectives Source: PMBOK Guide 2023 Version 169。 2023 RobbinsGioia, Inc. 1132 Inputs ? Risk Management Plan ? Identified Risks ? List of Prioritized Risks ? List of Risks for Additional Analysis and Management ? Historical Information – on prior, similar pleted projects, studies of similar projects by risk specialists, and risk databases available ? Expert Judgment – inputs from the project team, other subject matter experts within the anization, and outside sources ? Other Planning Outputs – schedule logic and duration estimates, WBS list of all cost elements, and models of project technical objectives Quantitative Risk Analysis Source: PMBOK Guide 2023 Version 169。 2023 RobbinsGioia, Inc. 1134 ? Probability – Likelihood of occurrence. (Number of occurrences of an event divided by the total number of all possible occurrences) ? Statistics – Mean – Average of the values of events – Mode – Value which occurs most often – Median – Value in middle of the range of ordered values ? Variance – Average of the squared deviations from the mean – Standard deviation – Square Root of the Variance – Range – Values between upper lower limits Tools Techniques (cont.) Quantitative Risk Analysis Source: PMBOK Guide 2023 Version 169。 2023 RobbinsGioia, Inc. 1136 Three values with probabilities。 2023 RobbinsGioia, Inc. 1137 Tools Techniques (cont.) Project A Project B 0.4 Success Failure Success Failure What is the probability that Project B will be selected and will be successful? Example Answer: Quantitative Risk Analysis Source: PMBOK Guide 2023 Version 169。 used to calculate expected value Quantitative Risk Analysis Source: PMBOK Guide 2023 Version 169。 2023 RobbinsGioia, Inc. 1140 Tools Techniques ? Sensitivity Analysis – determines which risks have the most potential impact on the project ? Decision Tree Analysis – use of a diagram that describes a decision under consideration and the implications of choosing one or another of the available alternatives ? Incorporates probabilities of risks and the c