【正文】
statecontingent. ?. the insurer pays only if there is an accident. Contingencies ?A statecontingent consumption plan is implemented only when a particular state of Nature occurs. ?. take a vacation only if there is no accident. StateContingent Budget Constraints ?Each $1 of accident insurance costs ?. ?Consumer has $m of wealth. ?Cna is consumption value in the noaccident state. ?Ca is consumption value in the accident state. StateContingent Budget Constraints Cna Ca StateContingent Budget Constraints Cna Ca 20 17 A statecontingent consumption with $17 consumption value in the accident state and $20 consumption value in the noaccident state. StateContingent Budget Constraints ?Without insurance, ?Ca = m L ?Cna = m. StateContingent Budget Constraints Cna Ca m The endowment bundle. m L?StateContingent Budget Constraints ?Buy $K of accident insurance. ?Cna = m ?K. ?Ca = m L ?K + K = m L + (1 ?)K. StateContingent Budget Constraints ?Buy $K of accident insurance. ?Cna = m ?K. ?Ca = m L ?K + K = m L + (1 ?)K. ?So K = (Ca m + L)/(1 ?) StateContingent Budget Constraints ?Buy $K of accident insurance. ?Cna = m ?K. ?Ca = m L ?K + K = m L + (1 ?)K. ?So K = (Ca m + L)/(1 ?) ?And Cna = m ? (Ca m + L)/(1 ?) StateContingent Budget Constraints ?Buy $K of accident insurance. ?Cna = m ?K. ( ?K 為 premium(保費 )) ?Ca = m L ?K + K = m L + (1 ?)K. ?So K = (Ca m + L)/(1 ?) ?And Cna = m ? (Ca m + L)/(1 ?) ?. C m L Cna a? ?? ? ?????1 1StateContingent Budget Constraints Cna Ca m The endowment bundle. m L???C m L Cna a? ?? ? ??? ? ?1 1m L?StateContingent Budget Constraints Cna Ca m The endowment bundle. slope ? ? ?? ?1C m L Cna a? ?? ? ??? ? ?1 1m L???m L?StateContingent Budget Constraints Cna Ca m The endowment bundle. Where is the most preferred statecontingent consumption plan? C m L Cna a? ?? ? ??? ? ?1 1slope ? ? ?? ?1m L???m L?Preferences Under Uncertainty ?2 states of nature: –At probability ?a , consumption is ca –At probability ?na , consumption is a –?a + ?na = 1. ?Utility is U(ca, a, ?a, ?na). Preferences Under Uncertainty a naE U U ( c ) U ( c )a na????Expected utility function VonNeumanMenstern utility function Preferences Under Uncertainty ?Statecontingent con