貴金屬投資技術(shù)分析英文版(2)-在線瀏覽
2025-06-17 12:09本頁面
【正文】 g could shake my confidence in this market...even if we do go down 30%, we?ll just e right back.” March 13, 2022 July 8, 2022 Long Term Investing in a Short Term World 15 Investors All Styles Small Cap Value Small Cap Growth Mid Cap Value Mid Cap Growth Large Cap Value Large Cap Growth Note: Data from 19792022. Source: Evergreen Capital Management, LLC. “An Asset Allocation Strategy for the Intelligent Investor.” Mutual Fund Flows and Subsequent 2Year Avg Return versus Samp。P 500 Weighting Energy Precious Metals Technology Financials Overweight Underweight % % % % % % % % % % % % Source: Bloomberg and Samp。P Data as of 5/30/06 Long Term Investing in a Short Term World 17 ? In it for the short(er) term Investors Source: John Bogle, “The Mutual Fund Industry 60 Years Later: For Better or Worse?”, Financial Analyst Journal, January/February 2022. A n n u a l T u r n o v e r o f S h a r e s b y E q u i t y F u n d I n v e s t o r s051015202530354045501945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2022 2022 20222022*Shares Redeemed as Percent of Assets Long Term Investing in a Short Term World 18 ? Holding periods are shrinking Investment Managers 0204060801001201946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2022 Annual Turnover Rate (%)Source: Bogle Financial Markets Research Center. 2022 Long Term Investing in a Short Term World 19 Evidence ? The market is actually longterm oriented ? Takes many years of valuecreating cash flows to justify today’s price ? Investors make shortterm bets on longterm outes ? Shorttermism creates costs Long Term Investing in a Short Term World 20 Solution ? Minimize agency costs ? Incentives (business) create a very suboptimal social context ? Fundamental attribution error Long Term Investing in a Short Term World 21 Solution ? The prison experiment (1971) “Situational variables can exert powerful influences over human behavior, more so than we recognize or acknowledge.” Philip Zimbardo Stanford University Source: . Used by permission. Long Term Investing in a Short Term World 22 Who Succeeds? ? Portfolio turnover ? Portfolio concentration ? Investment style ? Geographic location Source: Michael J. Mauboussin, More Than You Know: Finding Financial
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