【正文】 技術路線 ................................................... 4 第 2 章 原油管線危害辨識故障樹分析研究 ................................ 5 基本概念 ....................................................... 5 陸上原油管線失效故障樹分析 ..................................... 5 陸上原油管線失效故障樹的建立 ............................... 6 陸上原油管線失效故障樹的定性分析 ........................... 8 第 3 章 輸油管線相對失效風險計算方法研究 .............................. 9 管道風險評分法概述 ............................................. 9 管道風險評分法的基本模型 ................................... 9 管線分段 ................................................... 9 輸油管線相對失效風險的計算 .................................... 10 第三方破壞指數評分 ........................................ 10 腐蝕指數評分 .............................................. 14 設計指數評分 .............................................. 22 誤操作指數評分 ............................................ 27 輸油管線相對失效風險 ...................................... 31 第 4 章 輸油管線相對失效后果及相對風險研究 ........................... 32 概述 .......................................................... 32 泄漏后果指數的評定 ............................................ 32 產品危 害 .................................................. 32 擴散系數 .................................................. 35 泄漏后果指數 .............................................. 37 輸油管線相對風險 .............................................. 38 輸油管線相對風險可接受性評估 .................................. 38 輸油管線相對風險可接受標準的含義 .......................... 38 ALARP 區(qū)域的確定 ........................................... 39 第 5 章 輸油管道泄漏擴散災害評估體系及系統的開發(fā) ..................... 41 概述 .......................................................... 41 輸油管道泄漏擴散災害評估理論體系 .............................. 41 引言 ...................................................... 41 泄漏規(guī)律分析 .............................................. 41 擴散規(guī)律分析 .............................................. 49 災害評估 .................................................. 63 輸油管道泄漏災害評估系統開發(fā) .................................. 67 引言 ...................................................... 67 軟件的開發(fā)環(huán)境及工具 ...................................... 67 系統模塊化結構 ............................................ 67 主要操作界面介紹 .......................................... 70 第 6 章 馬廣長輸原油管線風險及災害評價 ............................... 73 概述 .......................................................... 73 管線分段 ...................................................... 73 評價結果分析 .................................................. 74 管道失效風險評價結果分析 .................................. 75 管道失效后果評價結果分析 .................................. 78 管道相對風險評價結果分析 .................................. 79 相對風險可接受性評價 ...................................... 79 第 7 章 結論與建議 ................................................... 81 結論 .......................................................... 81 建議 .......................................................... 81 致 謝 ............................................................... 82 參考文獻 ............................................................. 83 攻讀碩士學位期間發(fā)表的論文及科研成果 ................................. 86 西南石油大學碩士研究生學位論文 1 第 1 章 緒論 課題來源 本文來源于中石化惠州市大亞灣華德石化有限公司項目“在役輸油管線風險及災害評價技術研究”的部分研究內容。 Disaster assessment。 關鍵詞： 原油管線； 風險 評估 ；災害評估 ；評估系統；故障樹分析II Abstract Long distance pipeline transportation of crude oil is a economical mode of transport, but because of the flammable,toxic characteristic, once the system has an accident, it is easy to cause malignant consequences such as fire, poisoning, environmental pollution. Particularly in densely populated areas, and such accidents often cause serious injuries and significant economic losses, also brought adverse social and political influence. Risk factors of influence buried oil pipeline system security is numerous, theirs relations is intricate. Firstly,we adopts the method of fault tree analysis to qualitative analyse crude oil pipeline in this paper, and straighten out the relationship between the various risk factors, and find out mon failure form of pipe system and the most important risk factors. After hazard identify crude oil pipeline system, this paper studied semiquantitative risk assessment techniques which acquire widely applied pipeline risk score extensive investigation, and in bination with the specific conditions of onshore oil pipeline,we made improvement of the method. Made pipeline risk evaluation method is more prehensive, more reasonable and more applicable for crude oil pipeline system risk evaluation. Studied theory of risk acceptably assessment of the crude oil pipeline system ,calculated using normal distribution criterion, given calculation. Secondly, considering the event of failure of pipeline leak can cause very serious this paper, we analyzed the leak rules, conveying diffusion rule and hazard analysis theory, establish the theory system of leak diffusion and disaster on this basis to develop pipeline leak disaster assessment system. Using this system can do simulation before the accident and evaluation after the on simulation assessment results to formulate the corresponding emergency plans, which can rapidly judgment disaster’s scope and extent when leaking accident occurs, reduce accident loss of accident. Finally, we made risk assessments on the MaGuang longdistance crude oil pipelines by using the theoretical results of previous researches to find out the highrisk section of the four indices, the high likelihood section of pipe failure, the section of the most serious consequences of leakage and highrisk pipe, then put forward measures to reduce risks. Through the parison of the risk assessment results with the accident statistics and the daily operation and maintenance experience of MaGuang longdistance crude oil pipelines, the