【正文】 ess, there is still a problem.與凱斯勒博士的假說(shuō)相類似的擔(dān)心實(shí)際已促使衛(wèi)星發(fā)射部門更加注意其發(fā)射行為。與ESA地位相當(dāng)?shù)拿绹?guó)國(guó)家航空和宇宙航行局（NASA）軌道碎片首要科學(xué)家尼古拉斯?約翰遜又說(shuō)，太空碎片行為模擬試驗(yàn)“非常確鑿地證實(shí)了平常所稱的凱斯勒綜合癥所指的現(xiàn)象”。凱斯勒在上世紀(jì)七十年代創(chuàng)立的一種假說(shuō)。在該軌道上的碎片越多，就越有可能產(chǎn)生碎片。而這兩次事件的威脅所引起的恰恰就是這種壞事。這類軌道很容易通過(guò)發(fā)射火箭到達(dá)，這類軌道使地球表面的軍事和民用目標(biāo)得到非常詳盡的掃描，這類軌道離地相當(dāng)近，甚至如衛(wèi)星電話等設(shè)備的微弱信號(hào)都可以捕捉到。這些事故使離地7001000公里的軌道上運(yùn)行的太空物增加了三分之一（見(jiàn)圖表）。這種事兩年前就有了，兩年前，中國(guó)搞了一次反衛(wèi)星武器試驗(yàn)，試驗(yàn)中有目的地摧毀了一顆中國(guó)自己的“風(fēng)云—1號(hào)C ”衛(wèi)星。它確實(shí)掠過(guò)了，距離卻少了很多。由66顆小銥星組成的銥星群在繞地軌道上的太空高速運(yùn)行，孜孜不倦地在銥星和衛(wèi)星電話間來(lái)回發(fā)送信號(hào)，銥星33號(hào)是其中的一顆，今天是它生命的終結(jié)時(shí)刻。但是他們無(wú)法獨(dú)立完成這項(xiàng)任務(wù)。在如今實(shí)施不合時(shí)宜的緊縮政策的情況下，這種結(jié)合（考慮到美國(guó)的選舉周期，這種結(jié)合非常困難）可以避免損害到經(jīng)濟(jì)，并且可以增強(qiáng)央行增加購(gòu)買政府債券所取得的效果。有些國(guó)家（顯然包括美國(guó)）仍然還有財(cái)政刺激空間，只有這些國(guó)家的政治家才能保證財(cái)政刺激被用于補(bǔ)充貨幣政策。Responsibility for boosting growth must be more evenly split with politicians. Only politicians can address the structural problems that are also holding back the rich world’s economies, such as the housing debt in America and the barriers to hiring in parts of Europe. Only politicians in countries, notably including America, that still have room for fiscal stimulus can ensure that it is used to plement monetary policy. And only politicians can couple stimulus with longerterm pension and tax reform, so that investors do not lose faith in sovereigns’ future solvency. Such a bination (however difficult given the electoral cycle in America) would avoid damaging the economy with illtimed austerity now, and increase the effectiveness of bigger centralbank purchases of government bonds.政治家必須承擔(dān)促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的更加均勻的責(zé)任。他們無(wú)法將金融危機(jī)的緩慢復(fù)蘇轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)閺?qiáng)勁復(fù)蘇。他們確實(shí)擁有努力消除通貨緊縮的手段，必須利用它們。比如，為了進(jìn)一步減少有意義的債券收益率，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)可能需要再購(gòu)買12萬(wàn)億美元的政府債務(wù)。但是一些想法并沒(méi)有經(jīng)過(guò)考驗(yàn)。由于短期政策利率接近或已經(jīng)達(dá)到零，因此獲得更多的貨幣提振意味著擴(kuò)展一系列手段，而這些手段的效果和副作用卻并不知道。如果人們不想貸款，盡管貨幣政策會(huì)起到一定的作用，但是對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的提振作用比正常情況下還要小。央行無(wú)法進(jìn)一步降低短期利率。廉價(jià)的貨幣顯然是緊縮預(yù)算的一種補(bǔ)償，從歷史的經(jīng)驗(yàn)來(lái)看，眾多最成功的財(cái)政調(diào)整都有較寬松的貨幣政策配合。本周，日本銀行表示將延長(zhǎng)對(duì)各銀行的廉價(jià)貸款期限，以便使日元貶值。歐洲央行似乎準(zhǔn)備更長(zhǎng)時(shí)間地保持其特殊的流動(dòng)手段，復(fù)蘇放緩時(shí)，可能被迫發(fā)揮更加有所作為。按照目前的計(jì)劃，2011年，富裕世界將集體削減至少40年來(lái)最大的預(yù)算。一些富裕經(jīng)濟(jì)體，尤其是德國(guó)，最近表現(xiàn)出眾。因此，他最近在杰克遜荷爾發(fā)表的演說(shuō)受到了關(guān)注，他的演說(shuō)充滿自信，詳細(xì)地闡述了美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)可以采取的進(jìn)一步行動(dòng)。美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)已經(jīng)疲軟，但是隨著刺激計(jì)劃的消失，各州削減開支以平衡其預(yù)算和布什減稅政策的到期，財(cái)政政策的違約路線是一項(xiàng)巨大的緊縮。With most governments unable, or unwilling, to offer more fiscal stimulus, central banks are left solely responsible for propping up the flagging recovery. The phenomenon is most obvious in America. Its economy has weakened, yet the default path for fiscal policy is a hefty tightening as the Obama stimulus wanes, the states slash spending to balance their budgets and the Bush tax cuts expire. With any discussion of remedies by politicians drowned out by partisan positioning before the midterm elections in November, disproportionate hope is pinned on Ben Bernanke’s Federal Reserve. Hence the attention paid to his recent speech at Jackson Hole, which laid out, with great confidence, what further steps the Fed could take.由于大多數(shù)政府不能或者不愿意提供更多的財(cái)政刺激，只剩下央行銀行家為扶持乏力的復(fù)蘇負(fù)責(zé)了。后來(lái)他們采取大膽行動(dòng)支持金融體系，防止了新的大蕭條，因而受到重視。Sep 2nd 2010OVER the past few years the reputations of the rich world’s central bankers have fluctuated wildly. When the financial crisis struck, they were blamed for allowing the housing and credit bubbles to build, and for failing to foresee the bust. Later they were lionised for preventing a new Depression with bold actions to support the financial system. Now a third stage is at hand, one of dangerously outsized expectations.在過(guò)去幾年，富裕世界央行銀行家的名聲浮動(dòng)很大。Global economic policy全球經(jīng)濟(jì)政策M(jìn)onetary illusions貨幣政策的錯(cuò)覺(jué)Central bankers are not magicians. Don’t count on them to conjure up remedies if the rich economies flag 央行銀行家并不是魔法師。” 東京大學(xué)國(guó)際政治教授Akihiko Tanaka如是說(shuō)道。“如果菅直人當(dāng)選首相，他可能會(huì)面臨與鳩山一樣的問(wèn)題。gime if disillusioned voters are to be persuaded that the DPJ represents a real change from the past.但菅直人有一大弱點(diǎn)。任財(cái)臣期間，菅直人憑借兩點(diǎn)大放異彩：一是在如何將提高消費(fèi)稅作為整頓財(cái)政收入的一個(gè)環(huán)節(jié)，以達(dá)到減輕日本泰山壓頂般的債務(wù)的問(wèn)題上，他愿意展開討論（縱然是謹(jǐn)小慎微）；二是直面日本銀行在解決通貨緊縮的問(wèn)題上因力度不夠遭受的正面批評(píng)。 and justifiable criticism of the Bank of Japan for not doing enough to end deflation.菅直人在一月?lián)呜?cái)政大臣之前，幾乎沒(méi)有過(guò)掌管過(guò)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)，但在財(cái)政部的官員中，他卻享有“一學(xué)就會(huì)”的美譽(yù)。20世紀(jì)90年代中期，時(shí)任厚生大臣的菅直人將縱容給血友病患者輸入帶有艾滋病病毒的血液制品一事的官僚移送法辦，此舉使他聲名鵲起。繼2006年小泉純一郎辭職之后，日本先后更換了五位首相，無(wú)一不頂著前首相子孫的光環(huán)。The most likely successor has long been Naoto Kan, the 63yearold finance minister and deputy prime minister. His pedigree would mark a change to the top in itself. Since Mr Koizumi resigned in 2006, Japan has had five prime ministers, all of whom have been either the son or grandson of a former prime minister. Of unflashy origin, the dogged Mr Kan made his own way up the political ladder, gaining prestige in the mid1990s when, as health minister, he exposed bureaucrats who allowed the transfusion of HIVtainted blood to haemophiliacs.63歲的副首相兼財(cái)政大臣菅直人一直是繼任首相人選里呼聲最高的。新任領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人如果能夠擺脫受制于日本最后一位老派黨首——民主黨的小澤一郎的陰影，就可以迎來(lái)一個(gè)全新的聯(lián)合政府。在這樣的一個(gè)國(guó)家里，國(guó)民對(duì)首相一職花落誰(shuí)家的問(wèn)題心生厭煩也是可以理解的。Kan he do it?菅直人，兼職人？And the next contestant, please有請(qǐng)下一位Jun 3rd 2010 | TOKYO | From The Economist print editionIN A country where only one prime minister has lasted more than three years in the past 20 (the uncharacteristically charismatic Junichiro Koizumi), people are understandably blas233。 about who will be the next man in the top job. This time could be different. If the leader can step out from under the shadow of Japan’s last oldfashioned factional boss, the Democratic Party of Japan’s Ichiro Ozawa, he could usher in a new sort of coalition politics, with the potential to be either disastrously messy or refreshingly clean.過(guò)去的20年內(nèi),日本的幾任首相中只有一人（萬(wàn)人迷小泉純一郎）的任期超過(guò)了三年。不過(guò)這一次可能會(huì)與眾不同。而擺在這一聯(lián)合政府面前的有兩條路:要么是不堪入目的混亂，要么是清風(fēng)拂面的廉政。首先他的出身就將改寫日本高層政局。菅直人雖然出身卑微，但卻能堅(jiān)韌不拔地一路獨(dú)闖政壇，節(jié)節(jié)高升。He had little macroeconomic experience before being appointed finance minister in January, but gained a reputation among the ministry’s bureaucrats as a quick learner. They were thrilled that he actually listened to them. In that job, he has stood out for two reasons: his willingness to begin discussing—albeit gingerly—a rise in the consumption tax as part of a fiscal overhaul to reduce Japan’s crushing debt burden。財(cái)政部的官員對(duì)菅直人果真采取他們的意見(jiàn)感到興奮不已。But he has one big flaw. While in the cabinet, he made no attempt to distance himself from the prime minister or from Mr Ozawa when th