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ospect ?Aversion to risk let39。The Consumer: Uncertainty Microeconomics Aggregation Optimisation and Comparative Statics Welfare Opportunities and Preferences The Consumer This topic again...?? Overview... The Consumer Opportunities and Preferences Expected Utility Risk Aversion Optimisation and Comp. Statics Aggregation Welfare Modelling Uncertainty The Basics (Again) Further restrictions on the structure of utility functions New concepts Fresh insights on consumer axioms Uncertainty ? stateoftheworld ? ? ? American example If the only uncertainty is about who will be in power for four years then we might have statesoftheworld like this: ?={Gore,Bush} the n xt four years then we might hav statesoftheworld like ... or perhap like this: ?={Gore,Bush,Nader????} British example the weath r then we mig t have statesoftheworld like this: ain,sun} have stat softheworld like ... or perhaps like this: overcast,drizzle,mist, fog, sleet hail...} ? payoffs (outes) x(?? ? X ? prospects [x(??? ? ? ?? ? ex ante before the realisation ? ex post after the realisation each consists of an array of bundles over the entire space ? Concepts The exante/expost distinction: time This important concept can be thought of in terms of a simple diagram The moment of truth time at which the stateof the world is revealed Rainbow of possible statesoftheworld ? Decisions to be made here The ex ante view... time payoffs from decisions Only one realised stateoftheworld ? (it39。s too late to make decisions now) The ex post view... ? If the statespace is finite then a s