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stantial amounts of revenue in a less distortionary manner than current sales taxes. Second, administrative costs, which currently exceed 3 percent of state sales tax revenue (PriceWaterhouseCoopers 2020), would decline. Many states currently link their ine tax to the federal ine tax base, with obvious administrative and pliance advantages. Similar savings would accrue from linking federal and state VAT bases. Third, a national VAT would allow states and the federal government to tax previously difficulttotax transactions, such as interstate mail order and inter sales. If the . experience followed that of Canada, the federal government could collect revenue on behalf of states and absolve states of the cost of administering consumption taxes altogether (Duncan and Sedon 2020). In 2020, state and local sales tax revenue equaled percent of GDP (authors’ calculations based on . Census Bureau 2020). If the federal VAT had the broad base and demogrants described in Table 1, and the states and localities piggybacked on that structure, an average subnational VAT of about 6 percent would raise the same revenue as existing state and local sales , states could maintain their sales taxes or create their own VAT bases. Following the implementation of a federal VAT in Canada, most provinces maintained their existing tax codes for several years. Some provinces have yet to fully harmonize with the federal VAT, while Quebec administers its own VAT (Duncan and Sedon 2020). Anticipated VAT as Stimulus While a major tax increase would not be a good idea while the economy is still recovering slowly from recession, it is worth noting that there is potential for the announcement of a future VAT to be stimulative in the current period. By raising the 3 price of consumption goods in the future, or by doing so gradually over time via a phasedin VAT, the announcement would encourage people to spend more now and in the near future, when the economy needs the stimulus. This effect may not be very big – there is little evidence – but it goes in the right direction. Will the VAT fuel expanding government? The VAT has been called a money machine in honor of its ability to raise substantial amounts of revenue. That is a helpful feature if the revenues are used to close deficits, but poses a problem if the boost in revenue simply fuels further unsustainable growth in federal spending. Some analysts reject any source of extra revenue – including a VAT – on the grounds that less government revenue leads to smaller government. In general, this ―starve the beast‖ theory does not apply to most taxes, nor does it reflect recent experience. Romer and Romer (2020), for example, find that tax cuts designed to spur longrun growth do not in fact lead to lower government spending。 if anything, they find that tax cuts lead to higher spending. This finding is consistent with Gale and Orszag (2020b), who argue that the experience of the last 30 years is more consistent with a coordinated fiscal discipline view, in which tax cuts were coupled with increased spending (as in the 1980s and 2020s) and tax increases were coupled with contemporaneous spending reductions (as in the 1990s). Given the widely recognized need for both spending cuts and revenue increases to balance the budget, it is likely that any new revenue stream would be acpanied by reductions in spending. Some observers argue that the VAT is such an efficient and invisible tax that it has been and would be used to fuel government spending increases through a gradually increasing VAT rate