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l VAT, while Quebec administers its own VAT (Duncan and Sedon 2020). Anticipated VAT as Stimulus While a major tax increase would not be a good idea while the economy is still recovering slowly from recession, it is worth noting that there is potential for the announcement of a future VAT to be stimulative in the current period. By raising the 3 price of consumption goods in the future, or by doing so gradually over time via a phasedin VAT, the announcement would encourage people to spend more now and in the near future, when the economy needs the stimulus. This effect may not be very big – there is little evidence – but it goes in the right direction. Will the VAT fuel expanding government? The VAT has been called a money machine in honor of its ability to raise substantial amounts of revenue. That is a helpful feature if the revenues are used to close deficits, but poses a problem if the boost in revenue simply fuels further unsustainable growth in federal spending. Some analysts reject any source of extra revenue – including a VAT – on the grounds that less government revenue leads to smaller government. In general, this ―starve the beast‖ theory does not apply to most taxes, nor does it reflect recent experience. Romer and Romer (2020), for example, find that tax cuts designed to spur longrun growth do not in fact lead to lower government spending。 if anything, they find that tax cuts lead to higher spending. This finding is consistent with Gale and Orszag (2020b), who argue that the experience of the last 30 years is more consistent with a coordinated fiscal discipline view, in which tax cuts were coupled with increased spending (as in the 1980s and 2020s) and tax increases were coupled with contemporaneous spending reductions (as in the 1990s). Given the widely recognized need for both spending cuts and revenue increases to balance the budget, it is likely that any new revenue stream would be acpanied by reductions in spending. Some observers argue that the VAT is such an efficient and invisible tax that it has been and would be used to fuel government spending increases through a gradually increasing VAT rate. Bartlett (2020a, 2020b) addresses this claim by noting that increased VAT rates in OECD countries were mon among early adopters, who operated a VAT in the highinflation environments in the 1970s, but far less mon among countries that adopted a VAT after 1975. Among the 17 countries that instituted a VAT during the post1975 period of relative price stability, four have not changed their VAT rate and four have decreased the rate。 the average rate increase across all lateadopters of the VAT is less than 1 percentage point. The average VAT in 4 OECD countries has been roughly constant since 1984 at or just below 18 percent. Making the VAT transparent A variant of the concern about spending growth is the notion that the VAT is hidden in overall prices. As a result, the argument goes, taxpayers won’t notice the VAT the way they do ine, sales, or payroll taxes, enabling Congress to increase the VAT rate without much taxpayer resistance. This issue is easily addressed. The VAT doesn’t have to be invisible: for example, Canada simply requires that businesses print the amount of VAT paid on a receipt with every consumer purchase. This is essentially identical to the standard . practice of printing sales taxes paid on each receipt. Another way to make the VAT transparent is to link VAT rates and revenues with spending on particular goods. Aaron (1991) and Burman (2020) propose a VAT related to hea