【正文】 ions. Downside Scenario: AFTA fails due to countries pursuing own interests above region, China deflects significant growth from region, political upheaval and economic volatility continues, international or regional economic or political upheaval infects region. In worst case scenario, ASEAN exposed as poor location for highvolume auto production due to lack of scale versus other potential assembly sites (esp. China) and significant parts of 1990s auto investment proves unsustainable in the long run. ASEAN Business Environment ASEAN an inplete attempt to form a successful regional trading bloc ? Composed of hugely disparate countries: economically, religiously, ethnically ? Geography the only mon thread ? Not surprisingly, cohesiveness of trade bloc remains under threat ? Ex: Malaysia?s postponement of tariff reduction ASEAN at key turning point ? Needs to finally successfully integrate free trade zone to counter emerging threat from China ? Would allow Vehicle Manufacturers to consolidate operations rather than scattergun approach in every market ? Or see ASEAN concept fall apart ASEAN Region in Focus A regional trade bloc still trying to get off the ground, just as the world seems to be doubting the benefits of regional trade bloc model Several governments each with own agenda, limited physical infrastructures, growing consumer demand, more developed auto industry Single government in favor of consolidated auto industry, limited physical infrastructure, growing consumer demand, foreign ownership limitations ASEAN vs. China 14 169。 2023 PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP. All rights reserved. AsiaPacific Emerging Market VBE Performance, 20232023 Avg. B M WD a e w o oDCXF o r dGMH o n d aPSAR e n a u l tT o y o taVW05001 , 0 0 01 , 5 0 02 , 0 0 02 , 5 0 03 , 0 0 03 , 5 0 04 , 0 0 04 , 5 0 030% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%U ti l i za ti o nCapacity (000s)80% Despite DCX’s gamble on acquiring high volume in Asian emerging markets via Hyundai investment, no one has solved the riddle of achieving operating excellence in these highgrowth, but desperately plex and volatile set of markets. Does Asian risk promise worthwhile returns in an adequate time horizon? Mature Markets include: ? Australia, Japan, Taiwan Emerging Markets include: ? China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam 11 169。 2023 PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP. All rights reserved. D a e w o oDCXF o r dGMH o n d aR e n a u l tT o y o taVW5001 , 0 0 01 , 5 0 02 , 0 0 02 , 5 0 03 , 0 0 03 , 5 0 04 , 0 0 04 , 5 0 05 , 0 0 05 , 5 0 06 , 0 0 06 , 5 0 040% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%U ti l i za ti o nCapacity (000s)80% DCX, GM, Renault acquiring regional scale through Japanese and Korean partners。 2023 PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP. All rights reserved. AsiaPacific Utilization by Country Rate of plant rationalization in Japan matched by pace of assembly transfer South Korea: Local demand + export potential not sufficient to justify capacity ? Annual capacity remains three times local market demand ? Hyundai’s plans for incremental NA and possible EU facilities could negatively impact utilization rates ? Korea may have a Japanlike capacity correction in its future Rest of Asia ? China, India, Thailand bine for 30% of regional excess capacity ? Result of aggressive build up of facilities for overestimated nearterm demand R e g i o n a l C a p a c i t y U t i l i z a t i o n R a t e s20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%1998 2023 2023 2023 2023 2023Utilization RateA u s t r a l i a C h i n a I n d i aJ a p a n M a l a y s i a S o u t h K o r e aT a i w a n T h a i l a n d O t h e r ( A v g . )8 169。 2023 PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP. All rights reserved. AsiaPacific economic growth remains dependent on exports and hence on the continued economic vitality of North America. A significant downturn, especially