【正文】 。 Numerous forecast modification requests to the factories167。 tolerance of 20% (BIC 75% of SKU achieve this target) 167。 While forecast accuracy is better at the Brand level, it varies greatly at the SKU level regardless of product classification (A, B, C)167。 L’Or233。al Canada’s customers provide forecast and POS data, L’Or233。 OvertimeCustomer Collaboration167。 Expediting costs167。 Excess inventory (returns, spoiled, destroyed, obsolete, slow moving)167。 Ensure the full aggregated costs of forecast error are measured:167。 An APS solution will facilitate the aggregation and disaggregation of the forecast, however, time should be spent determining the appropriate level for forecasting. Topdown approaches can mask trend shifts while bottomup approaches may not consider effects shared across brandsMeasuring Forecast Inaccuracy 167。al’s confirmed quantities for customers to validate in a timely manner Aggregation / Disaggregation167。 Once forecasts are more accurate, L’Or233。 Allocation configuration should be modified to reflect the new policies in SAP R/3. In the longterm additional allocation functionality could be explored in an APS tool9Demand Planning – Issues and OpportunitiesIssues OpportunityCustomer Collaboration CrossShare Forecasts with Key Customers167。 Allocation is a useful tool for ensure higher priority customersobtain increased service levels in cases of shortages. L’Or233。 CannibalizationData Cleansing167。 Phase In/ Phase Out of products which entails weighting the forecast to reflect a product’s lifecycle167。 Investigate APS functionality to handle:167。 “One Shot” promotions are difficult to planProduct Allocation167。 Past promotional performance is not adequately measured, therefore making it difficult to predict the impact of future promotions167。 No postmortem analysis is conducted or captured on failed product launches as input to future launchesPromotions167。 L’Or233。 Although L’Or233。 Although L’Or233。 Training for Sales and Marketing resources is insufficient. 167。 L’Or233。 L’Or233。 Sales is seen as too distant from the customer and therefore lacking pertinent data to input into the forecasting . which store carries which SKU167。al Canada has started to tie pensation to forecast accuracy. This practice will obtain greater acceptance among employees once a tool to support the process has been implementedDepartments Involved have Different Priorities167。 Monitor and review congruence of goals to rewardsThis will remove tradeoffs between forecast accuracy and performance against forecast, leverages key information and helps eliminate biases167。 Establish forecast accuracy goals167。 Crosstraining sharpens skills, broadens perspectives and improves munication 167。al will need to evaluate their resources skills and determine if additional resources are required to gain forecasting expertise167。 Ensure the Planning Team is CrossFunctional and CrossTrained:167。 The forecasting tool selected should provide “What If” simulation capabilities to demonstrate the impact of a variable change (. price change)167。 The forecasting tool selected should allow for the generation of alerts based on predefined tolerances, highlighting the products that require further consideration and manual intervention167。 Communicate and reconcile forecast assumptions by conducting a formal review after each planning cycle with all stakeholders. Report forecast error and modify assumptions as appropriateForecasting Tool/BW167。 POS, Nielsen, customer information, promotional and advertising information are not all integrated in one central repositoryOpportunityProcess Redesign167。 Many disparate tools are being used to facilitate forecasting Excel, Valo, SAP and Outils Gestion. Interfaces have been built between the various tools and systems, but manual verification is required and the current technology still does not meet L’Or233。 L’Or233。 L’Or233。 There is no mechanism for automatically generating a baseline forecast167。 There is no formal process for determining which products should be focused on during the forecasting meetings167。nes4Presentation Agenda I. Project Scope and ActivitiesII. Overview of Our Supply Chain FindingsI. ProcessesII. Inventory ReviewIII. Maturity ProfilesIV. Organization/ People and Culture V. TechnologyIII. Supply Chain RoadmapIV. Discussion of Next Steps5ProcessesDemand Planning Supply Planning Order Fulfillment?Develop Sales Forecast?Maintain Promotional Plan?Consider inventory levels, backorder reports, safety stock levels?Consolidate and consider external data (POS, Nielsen, Customer data)?Reconcile Demand Plan with Budget?New Product Introductions?Net Inventory and Lead Times from the Forecast?Distributed Requirement Planning?Capacity Requirement Planning?Customer Allocations?Communicate forecast to Suppliers?Receive supplier mitment?Process Customer Orders?Plan and Manage Finished Goods Inventory?Picking and Packing?Manage Outbound Product Flow?Manage shipping transportation?Generate Invoice?Credit management and A/R(*) Out of scope6Demand Planning – Issues and OpportunitiesIssues Manual and Inconsistent Processes167。rie LacerteYves Dub233。 Summarized our findings in this presentation documentProject KickoffData CollectionInterview with ExecutivesProcess WorkshopsModel Review Validate Base CaseReview MetricsIdentify Consolidate Issues OpportunitiesOpportunity PrioritizationBenefits AssessmentFindings/ Remendation DevelopmentPresent RemendationsDiscuss Next Steps3CrossFunctional Participants Senior Management Supply Chain Laurent Venot (Project Sponsor)Jean ValoisPierre MassicotteVal233。al process and performance to CPG best practice167。 Conducted a high level maturity assessment167。 Facilitated two crossfunctional process