【正文】 the values are less than our expected value of 100. This means that in a future experiment set up the same way, we would expect 50% of the values to be less than 100. 169。The National Graduate School of Quality Management v7 ? 40 COIN TOSS EXAMPLE ? Take a coin from your pocket and toss it 200 times. ? Keep track of the number of times the coin falls as “heads”. ? When plete, the instructor will ask you for your “head” count. 169。The National Graduate School of Quality Management v7 ? 38 Measurements are critical... ?If we can’t accurately measure something, we really don’t know much about it. ?If we don’t know much about it, we can’t control it. ?If we can’t control it, we are at the mercy of chance. 169。The National Graduate School of Quality Management v7 ? 36 IMPROVEMENT ROADMAP Uses of Probability Distributions Breakthrough Strategy Characterization Phase 1: Measurement Phase 2: Analysis Optimization Phase 3: Improvement Phase 4: Control ?Establish baseline data characteristics. Project Uses ?Identify and isolate sources of variation. ?Use the concept of shift drift to establish project expectations. ?Demonstrate before and after results are not random chance. 169。The National Graduate School of Quality Management v7 ? 34 Learning Objectives ? Have a broad understanding of what probability distributions are and why they are important. ? Understand the role that probability distributions play in determining whether an event is a random occurrence or significantly different. ? Understand the mon measures used to characterize a population central tendency and dispersion. ? Understand the concept of Shift Drift. ? Understand the concept of significance testing. 169。The National Graduate School of Quality Management v7 ? 32 Learning Objectives ? Have an understanding of the difference between random variation and a statistically significant event. ? Understand the difference between attempting to manage an oute (Y) as opposed to managing upstream effects (x’s). ? Understand how the concept of statistical significance can be used to improve business processes. 169。The National Graduate School of Quality Management v7 ? 30 OBSERVATIONS……. WHAT OBSERVATIONS DID YOU MAKE ABOUT THIS PROCESS….? 169。The National Graduate School of Quality Management v7 ? 28 INCENTIVE PROGRAM ? Low bead counts will be rewarded with a bonus. ? High bead counts will be punished with a reprimand. ? Your performance will be based solely on your ability to produce white beads. ? Your defect quota is no more than 7 off color beads allowed per paddle. 169。The National Graduate School of Quality Management v7 ? 26 STANDING ORDERS ? Follow the process exactly. ? Do not improvise or vary from the documented process. ? Your performance will be based solely on your ability to produce white beads. ? No questions will be allowed after the initial training period. ? Your defect quota is no more than 5 off color beads allowed per paddle. 169。The National Graduate School of Quality Management v7 ? 24 Learning Objectives ? Have an understanding of the difference between random variation and a statistically significant event. ? Understand the difference between attempting to manage an oute (Y) as opposed to managing upstream effects (x’s). ? Understand how the concept of statistical significance can be used to improve business processes. 169。The National Graduate School of Quality Management v7 ? 22 Learning Objectives ? Have a broad understanding of statistical concepts and tools. ? Understand how statistical concepts can be used to improve business processes. ? Understand the relationship between the curriculum and the four step six sigma problem solving process (Measure, Analyze, Improve and Control). 169。The National Graduate School of Quality Management v7 ? 20 WHY STATISTICS? THE ROLE OF STATISTICS IN SIX SIGMA.. ? Ignorance is not bliss, it is the food of failure and the breeding ground for loss. DR. Mikel J. Harry ? Years ago a statistician might have claimed that statistics dealt with the processing of data…. ? Today’s statistician will be more likely to say that statistics is concerned with decision making in the face of uncertainty. Bartlett USLT?LSL169。The National Graduate School of Quality Management v7 ? 18 Measurements are critical... ?If we can’t accurately measure something, we really don’t know much about it. ?If we don’t know much about it, we can’t control it. ?If we can’t control it, we are at the mercy of chance. 169。The National Graduate School of Quality Management v7 ? 16 SIX SIGMA COMPARISON Focus on Pr e v e ntio n Focus on Fi re figh tingLow cos t/hi gh through put H ig h c ost/low throug hpu tPok a Yoke Control Str a te gi e s R e li a nce o n Tes t and I nspe c tionSta bl e /Pre di c ta bl e Proc e s s e s Pr oce s s e s b a s e d on R a ndo m Proba bi li tyPr oac tive R e a c tiveLow F a il ure Ra te s H ig h Failure Ra te sFocus on Lon g Ter m Focus on Short Ter mEffic ient Was te fulMa nage b y Metr ics and Analy s is Ma nage b y 揝 e a t of the pants ”Six Sigma Traditional “ SIX SIGMA TAKES US FROM FIXING PRODUCTS SO THEY ARE EXCELLENT, TO FIXING PROCESSES SO THEY PRODUCE EXCELLENT PRODUCTS” Dr. Gee Sarney, President, Siebe Control Systems 169。The National Graduate School of Quality Management v7 ? 14 INSPECTION EXERCISE The necessity of training farm hands for first class farms in the fatherly handling of farm livestock is foremost in the minds of farm owners.