【正文】 Marketing Refining UpstreamStrategy focused on petitive position and new productsCost control, capacity utilization, new product development and product line managementStrategy focused on petitive positionPricing, regional shifts and format economics are key driversMany small betsValue driven by customer strategy, store economics and growthStrategy focused on flexibility versus efficiencyLocked into LP Mindset?Find “out of box” optionsCost control and throughput are key shortterm value driversStrategy focused on investment optionsField versus new geography investment and exploration costs versus success rate are key driversMany betsValue driven by price investment strategy and operating effectivenessProduct line TSR,Plant CFROIBU TSR Station CFROIProject IRR and refinery CFROI BU TSR project IRRMetrics implemented按不同的事業(yè)部特性確定價值衡量指標按不同的事業(yè)部特性確定價值衡量指標 Link to KPIs% Gross InvestmentCFROI10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1005051020GasExplorationChemicalsRefining and MarketingCost of Capital15各類投資項目的審核從劃分事業(yè)部起始各類投資項目的審核從劃分事業(yè)部起始Growth ProjectsCFROI Improvement ProjectsCFROI Improvement Projects: Asset management% of Gross Investment%AvgCFROI in Plan10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100505101520253035Chemical 1ExplorationGas 1 Chemical 2Gas 2Gas 3MarketingRefiningCost of CapitalChemical 3Chemical 4而事業(yè)部進一步按業(yè)務類型細化而事業(yè)部進一步按業(yè)務類型細化石油開采事業(yè)部市場零售煉油舉例：細分后的不同結果舉例：細分后的不同結果 Link to StrategyCleaning SuppliesHousehold ProductsChemical AdditivesFertilizersSpecialty Plastics產品 市場 零售 工業(yè) 商業(yè) 政府 直銷Major MarketMinor MarketNo current market舉例舉例 (續(xù)續(xù) )：按銷售渠道進一步細化市場零售：按銷售渠道進一步細化市場零售事業(yè)部事業(yè)部Link to Strategy利潤表 :銷售 利潤管理費用利息折舊稅務資產負債表 :應收帳款存貨固定資產應付帳款負債可獲取可獲取按人力分配按負債額分配預定年限 Division rate按產品可獲取特殊區(qū)分按銷售成本按負債 /權益會計科目表 預計流程而進一步將資產分配到各市場單位可深入分而進一步將資產分配到各市場單位可深入分析投資回報率析投資回報率Link to Strategy10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100105051015202530 商業(yè)直銷零售工業(yè) 政府CFROI %% Gross InvestmentWACCConsolidated CFROI渠道獲利率分析揭示了渠道的強弱渠道獲利率分析揭示了渠道的強弱Link to StrategySample Stores CFROISiteKeep?Keep FixCloseStrongWeakWeak StrongStores were grouped for next stepsCost of Capital%Cons. CFROI%5051015202530Management而零售渠道的進一步細分可揭示各零售點的而零售渠道的進一步細分可揭示各零售點的強弱強弱Link to StrategyPrice/OrderOrder Size01234560 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100Problem orders而工業(yè)渠道注重于挖掘擴展能使之盈利的而工業(yè)渠道注重于挖掘擴展能使之盈利的顧客顧客Link to StrategyCommercialDirect SalesRetailIndustrialGovernmentCustomer Group? Good business, but limited growth? Generally ignored, profitable but unexciting? Well managed? Value mature? Thought to be profitable? Good relationships with customers? Problem area? Necessary evilPrior View? 10% increase in growth doubles value? “Hidden jewel” readdressed marketing strategy? Results below peers in region? Throughput identified as key value driver? Site acquisition model redone? Asset intensity the key? Focus on raising CFROI? Significant problem areaPost VBM View? Maintain? Aggressive growth plans? Site improvement program? New store format? Evaluate accounts individually? Focus on valuable customers? Focus on improving CFROI? Expand into other products? Possible exitNext Steps分析的結果引起顯著的戰(zhàn)略變化分析的結果引起顯著的戰(zhàn)略變化 Link to StrategyCorporate OfficeInternal “Capital Market”BU 1 BU 2 BU 3Project LifeOutlayProject LifeOutlayCash FlowCash FlowProject ProjectInternal ViewInvestorsExternal “Capital Market”Stock 1 Stock 2 Stock 3External ViewAccountingDataSharePriceIne StatementBalance SheetEPS, ROE, ROCECFROIGrowthWACCFadeCFROICash FlowGross Assets Asset LifeCFROI 既用于外部投資，也由于內部管理既用于外部投資，也由于內部管理 CFROI167。 使內部決策和外部資本市場的表現(xiàn)掛鉤167。 不受資產的年限和組合的影響167。 是高層管理者持股分配的基是高層管理者持股分配的基礎礎股票價格 分 紅獲利率和增長率驅動股價獲利率和增長率驅動股價股東回報率 (TSR)衡量分析指數(shù)投資者回報TSR定義投資資本的現(xiàn)金流回報CFROI可持續(xù)增長 自由現(xiàn)金流投資資本的現(xiàn)金流回報投資資本的現(xiàn)金流回報 CFROI 全面衡量公司業(yè)績全面衡量公司業(yè)績? 當上市公司擁有以下特征時，較為適合使用 CFROI:– 長年限的固定資產 (平均超過 15 年 )– 具有大量固定資產– 固定資產非常陳舊或非常新– 具有大型投資模板和行為益處 CFROI 定義定義167。 不受會計操作的影響不受會計操作的影響214。 反映了公司最終擁有者的回反映了公司最終擁有者的回報率報率214。 如何衡量增長 ? 表現(xiàn)如何 ? 未來現(xiàn)金流量的凈現(xiàn)值 Net present value of future cash flows (NPV or DCF) 加權平均的資本成本 WeightedAverage Cost of Capital (WACC) 股東回報率 Total Shareholder Return (TSR)