【正文】 ward to working with him. 我們旗下保險(xiǎn)事業(yè)最新加入的成員是位於加州的賽普路斯保險(xiǎn)，至於勞工退休金保險(xiǎn) 則因?yàn)槭窃?1977 年底以現(xiàn)金買下，所以其 1,250 萬(wàn)美元的保費(fèi)收入並未列入我們當(dāng) 年的營(yíng)運(yùn)記錄，賽普路斯與國(guó)家產(chǎn)險(xiǎn)現(xiàn)有的勞工退休金保險(xiǎn)業(yè)務(wù)不會(huì)合併，而會(huì)採(cǎi)用 不同的行銷策略各自獨(dú)立經(jīng)營(yíng)，賽普路斯現(xiàn)任總裁 Milt Thornton，在保戶、業(yè)務(wù)員、 員工及股東方面的營(yíng)運(yùn)管理皆屬一流，對(duì)於能與他一起共事，我們相當(dāng)期待。 At Home and Auto, John Seward continued to make progress on all fronts. John was a battlefield promotion several years ago when Home and Auto’s underwriting was awash in red ink and the pany faced possible extinction. Under his management it currently is sound, profitable, and growing. 至於 John Seward 領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的家庭與汽車保險(xiǎn)在各個(gè)方面都有重大進(jìn)展，幾年前當(dāng)該公司 因核保大幅虧損，面臨倒閉危機(jī)時(shí)， John跳上火線，在他的管理之下，公司的營(yíng)運(yùn)漸 上軌道。 We must again give credit to Phil Liesche, greatly assisted by Roland Miller in Underwriting and Bill Lyons in Claims, for an extraordinary underwriting achievement in National Indemnity’s traditional auto and general liability business during 1977. Large volume gains have been acpanied by excellent underwriting margins following contraction or withdrawal by many petitors in the wake of the 197475 crisis period. These conditions will reverse before long. In the meantime, National Indemnity’s underwriting profitability has increased dramatically and, in addition, large sums have been made available for investment. As markets loosen and rates bee inadequate, we again will face the challenge of philosophically accepting reduced volume. Unusual managerial discipline will be required, as it runs counter to normal institutional behavior to let the other fellow take away business even at foolish prices. 講到這裡，我們必須再度將殊榮歸予 Phil Liesche，在核保部門 Roland Miller 以及理 賠部門 Bill Lyons 的大力協(xié)助下，國(guó)家產(chǎn)險(xiǎn) 1977 年在傳統(tǒng)的汽車及責(zé)任險(xiǎn)業(yè)務(wù)方面又 大放異彩，保費(fèi)收入不但大幅成長(zhǎng)，相較於其他同業(yè)不堪 197475 年的危機(jī)陸續(xù)退出 市場(chǎng)，其優(yōu)異的核保利益更屬難得，國(guó)家產(chǎn)險(xiǎn)的核保利益大幅地成長(zhǎng)，此外可供投資 的資金亦迅速累積，只可惜這樣的情況維持不了多久，這些業(yè)者又會(huì)再度捲土重來(lái)， 隨著市場(chǎng)緊繃情勢(shì)轉(zhuǎn)為寬鬆，費(fèi)率又將變得失控，屆時(shí)我們又必須回復(fù)過(guò)去冷靜地接 受保費(fèi)收入 銳減的考驗(yàn)，嚴(yán)格的核保紀(jì)律絕對(duì)必須維持，如此我們才能抗拒直覺(jué)，眼 睜睜地看著其他業(yè)者以瘋狂的價(jià)格搶走生意。 In 1977 the winds in insurance underwriting were squarely behind us. Very large rate increases were effected throughout the industry in 1976 to offset the disastrous underwriting results of 1974 and 1975. But, because insurance policies typically are written for oneyear periods, with pricing mistakes capable of correction only upon renewal, it was 1977 before the full impact was felt upon earnings of those earlier rate increases. 1977 年保險(xiǎn)業(yè)核保的順風(fēng)不斷地從後方吹來(lái)，保費(fèi)大幅度的 調(diào)整在1976 年正式生效 後，適時(shí)地抵消 1974 年及 1975 年慘痛的核保記錄，而由於保單的簽訂通常以一年為 期，所以定價(jià)的修正通常必須等到換新約時(shí)，所以實(shí)際上費(fèi)率的上漲一直等到 1977 年才充分反應(yīng)在盈餘之上。 In aggregate, the insurance business has worked out very well. But it hasn’t been a oneway street. Some major mistakes have been made during the decade, both in products and personnel. We experienced significant problems from (1) a surety operation initiated in 1969, (2) the 1973 expansion of Home and Automobile’s urban auto marketing into the Miami, Florida area, (3) a still unresolved aviation “fronting” arrangement, and (4) our Worker’s Compensation operation in California, which we believe retains an interesting potential upon pletion of a reanization now in progress. It is forting to be in a business where some mistakes can be made and yet a quite satisfactory overall performance can be achieved. In a sense, this is the opposite case from our textile business where even very good management probably can average only modest results. One of the lessons your management has learned and, unfortunately, sometimes re learned is the importance of being in businesses where tailwinds prevail rather than headwinds. 總的來(lái)說(shuō)，保險(xiǎn)事業(yè)的表現(xiàn)還算不錯(cuò)，但情況並非全然如此，過(guò)去十年來(lái)，我們也犯 過(guò)一些大錯(cuò)，不論是在產(chǎn)品或是人員方面，比如說(shuō)我們?cè)谝韵路矫婢驮龅街卮蟮睦? 難： (1)1969 年推出的保證責(zé)任險(xiǎn) (2)1973 年擴(kuò)充佛羅里達(dá)邁阿密地區(qū)的家庭及汽車保 險(xiǎn)業(yè)務(wù) (3)目前尚未解決的航空 ”前置 ”安排 (4)我們?cè)诩又莸膭诠ね诵萁饦I(yè)務(wù)，我們相信 這業(yè)務(wù)一旦改組完成應(yīng)該還是相當(dāng)有潛力。 Insurance Underwriting 保險(xiǎn)事業(yè) Our insurance operation continued to grow significantly in 1977. It was early in 1967 that we made our entry into this industry through the purchase of National Indemnity Company and National Fire and Marine Insurance Company (sister panies) for approximately $ million. In that year their premium volume amounted to $22 million. In 1977 our aggregate insurance premium volume was $151 million. No additional shares of Berkshire Hathaway stock have been issued to achieve any of this growth. 我們的保險(xiǎn)事業(yè)在 1977 年持續(xù)大幅地成長(zhǎng)，早在 1967 年我們以 860萬(wàn)美元購(gòu)併國(guó) 家產(chǎn)險(xiǎn)及國(guó)家海上火險(xiǎn)公司 (兩者為姊妹公司 )的方式進(jìn)軍保險(xiǎn)業(yè)，當(dāng)年他們的保費(fèi)收 入大約為 2,200 萬(wàn)美元，時(shí)至今日， 1977 年的累積年保費(fèi)收入已達(dá) 億美元，必 須強(qiáng)調(diào)的是，在此期間， Berkshire 沒(méi)有再發(fā)行過(guò)任何一股新股以支應(yīng)成長(zhǎng)。 Textile Operations 紡織事業(yè) The textile business again had a very poor year in 1977. We have mistakenly predicted better results in each of the last two years. This may say something about our forecasting abilities, the nature of the textile industry, or both. Despite strenuous efforts, problems in marketing and manufacturing have persisted. Many difficulties experienced in the marketing area are due primarily to industry conditions, but some of the problems have been of our own making. 1977 年紡織事業(yè)的表現(xiàn)依舊低迷不振，過(guò)去兩年我們樂(lè)觀的預(yù)期紛紛落空，這或許也 說(shuō)明了我們預(yù)測(cè)能力的薄弱，或是紡織產(chǎn)業(yè)的本質(zhì)，盡管一再地努力與掙扎，行銷與 製造的問(wèn)題依舊存在，雖然市場(chǎng)上面臨的困境與產(chǎn)業(yè)情勢(shì)相關(guān)，但也有不少問(wèn)題是我 們自己造成。 Except for special cases (for example, panies with unusual debt equity ratios or those with important assets carried at unrealistic balance sheet values), we believe a more appropriate measure