【正文】 Business, Wall Street Journal, EIU,US Automotive Outlook: Poor in Short Term, Fair Long Term,The outlook for United States passenger car sales growth is poor in the short term while long term prospects are no better than fair. The sales picture over the last 18 months has been distorted by sales incentive schemes (like 0% financing) which had immediate results. Sales created out of incentives tend to reflect consumption brought forward rather than new spending. Thus volumes will fall further over 2003. The US market is less likely to fall precipitously like previous peaktotrough eras in the automotive industry. Sales fell 29% in the early 1980s and 23% in the early 1990s. The peaktotrough sales from 2001 to 2004 are expected to amount to only 7%. The US market is currently saturated which does not bode well for long term growth (average annual growth in passenger car registrations between 2005 and 2007 are expected to be just 1.3% a year). This is similar to Germany, France and Italy, but slower than emerging markets. Currently none of the US’s Big 3 automakers are well prepared for a major downturn in the automobile market and their medium term prospects will be constrained by global overcapacity and downward pressure on prices. Competition is likely to increase and the industry’s capacity will grow but the elasticity of demand is currently declining.,Source: The Economist, Economy.com, Morgan Stanley,US Automotive Outlook: Macroeconomic Drivers,The automotive industry has been driven by interest rates which were at 48year lows. Rates are forecast to increase through 2006 which will have some effect on sales. GDP is expected to increase in 3Q03 and increase by a point in 4Q03. GDP should stabilize through 2004. Unemployment is expected to stabilize as job creation picks up, however not at a rapid rate.,Forecast,Source: GDP and Interest Rate forecasts, Economy.com,Interest Rates,GDP,Notes: (1) Interest Rate is on New Car Loan, Commercial Bank (2) Interest Rate is on New Car Loan, Finance Company,Forecast,US Automotive Outlook: Expense and Profitability Forecasts,Source: Economy.com,Sales have increased but net profit margins have suffered due to 0% financing and are only rebounding slightly. Net profits and operating margins should stay flat for the remainder of the forecast. Capital spending is expected to increase slightly over the forecast. Ford is expected to spend $1,210 on cap ex/unit produced (GM is at $886). Sales will stay flat through 2003 and increase only slightly in 2004. The biggest jump in sales is expected between 2005 and 2006. High end, SUV and minivan models offer higher profit margins, but their sales have declined reducing profitability.,Forecast,Forecast,Global Automotive Industry Outlook: Emerging Markets, Consolidation,In the year ahead, there are some significant changes that should affect the global automotive industry, especially in light of its considerable pressures like cost, maintaining production schedules, and sustaining or gaining market share. Largest emerging markets Brazil and China will contribute the most growth in terms of demand. Consolidation continues to be an issue however local players that are regionally or nichefocused will still have an important presence.,Government safety and environmental regulations could be costly for automakers but also lead to greater investments in hightech suppliers, leading to entirely new automotive innovations. It is likely that the global automotive industry will eventually need to resort to radical changes in order to see past profitability.,Autofacts Global Automotive Forecast, 2Q ‘03,Automotive Regional Markets: Business Challenges,Western Europe: Difficult Environment,In the first four months of the year, the European auto market shrank 3.7% compared with the same period in 2002. Continued difficult markets in Europe could lead to more exports to the United States which will further weaken pricing there. Economic recovery remains weak in Europe and growth of passenger car and commercial vehicle sales is negative. European demand for trucks is likely to remain weak throughout this year, perhaps starting to recover in 2004 and 2005, depending on the segment and geographic area. Constant price pressures are causing European manufacturers to seek greater efficiency improvements and costsavings measures. Many European manufacturers are concentrating on internal operations to improve their financial performance and cash flow generation over 2003. The divergent taxing systems currently in place across Europe complicate and hinder efforts to roll out panEuropean leasing services for automobiles. The EU is currently working towards greater tax harmony, allowing companies to cater to multinational corporations more easily, promoting growth in the car leasing sector. As a result, cross border leasing may become vastly easier to implement from 2005, when leasing companies will be able to centrally organize their international operations and bypass differences in regional regulations.,Source: EIU,Western Europe: Asian Automakers Are Making Major Inroads,Sales of Japanese cars in Europe are setting new records. Given their healthy profit margins and expanding production base in Europe, the Japanese appear well placed to increase their share of the European market significantly over the next decade at the expense of Europe’s weaker carmakers. New car registrations in Western Europe dropped 6.5% in April year on year, crimped by slow economic growth and the Iraq war. At the same time, Japanese brands recorded a 5% jump. The Japanese now hold a market share of 12.1% in Europe, up from 10.8% a year ago, and that number is expected to increase. Europe’s bestselling car is now the Mazda 6, boosting Mazda’s yearonyear sales by more than 40% between January and April 2003. Japan’s market share gain is not likely to restart the trade disputes of the 80s and 90s because the number of cars the Japanese are exporting