【正文】 2023 RobbinsGioia, Inc. 1166 Outputs ? WorkAround Plans – unplanned responses to emerging risks that were not previously identified or accepted ? Corrective Action – performing the contingency plan or workaround ? Project Change Requests – implementing contingency plans or workaround, frequently results in a requirement to change the project plan to respond to risks ? Updates to Risk Response Plan – Risks that do occur should be documented. Risks that do not occur should also be documented and closed in the risk response plan Source: PMBOK Guide 2023 Version 169。 2023 RobbinsGioia, Inc. 1164 Tools techniques ? Project Risk Response Audits – risk auditors examine and document throughout the life cycle of the project the effectiveness of the risk response in avoiding, transferring, or mitigating risk occurrence as well as the effectiveness of the risk owner ? Periodic Project Risk Reviews – should be regularly scheduled to monitor the progress and any changes to the project ? Earned Value Analysis – used for monitoring overall project performance against a baseline plan. ? If a project deviates significantly from the baseline, updated risk identification and analysis should be performed Source: PMBOK Guide 2023 Version 169。 2023 RobbinsGioia, Inc. 1162 Risk Monitoring Control Inputs ? Risk management plan ? Risk response plan ? Project munication ? Additional risk identification analysis ? Scope changes Tools ? Project risk response audits ? Periodic project risk reviews ? Earned value analysis ? Technical performance measurement ? Additional risk response planning Outputs ? Workaround plans ? Corrective action ? Project change requests ? Updates to risk response plan ? Risk database ? Updates to risk identification checklist Source: PMBOK Guide 2023 Version 169。 2023 RobbinsGioia, Inc. 1160 Outputs ? Corrective action – Performing the planned risk response ? Updates to the RMP – As anticipated risk events occur, or fail to occur, and as actual riskevent effects are evaluated, estimates of probabilities and values, as well as other aspects of the risk management plan, should be updated Risk Response Control Source: PMBOK Guide 2023 Version 169。 2023 RobbinsGioia, Inc. 1158 Inputs Risk Response Control ? Risk management plan (RMP) ? Actual risk events – Those events which occur and are recognized by the PM team ? Additional risk identification Source: PMBOK Guide 2023 Version 169。 2023 RobbinsGioia, Inc. 1156 Risk Response Control Providing an approach for monitoring and controlling the riskevent occurrence, in accordance with the risk management plan Source: PMBOK Guide 2023 Version 169。 2023 RobbinsGioia, Inc. 1154 Classes of Contractual Documents Spectrum of risk CPPC CPFF CPIF FPI FFP Cost Plus Fixed Fee (CPFF) Cost Plus Incentive Fee (CPIF) Variable Sharing Ratio Firm Fixed Price 0 100 Cost Plus Percentage of Costs (CPPC) 100 0 Fixed Price Incentive (FPI) Seller Risk LOW HIGH Buyer Risk HIGH LOW Risk Response Development Source: PMBOK Guide 2023 Version 169。 it is used to document the procedures that will be used to manage risk throughout the project ? Should contain: – Results of the risk identification and risk quantification processes – Who is responsible for managing various areas of risk – How the initial identification and quantification outputs will be maintained – How contingency plans will be implemented – How reserves will be allocated Risk Response Development Source: PMBOK Guide 2023 Version 169。 2023 RobbinsGioia, Inc. 1151 Tools Techniques ? Procurement or contracting – Acquiring goods or services from outside the immediate project anization ? Contingency planning – Defining action steps to be taken if an identified risk occurs ? Alternative strategies – Risks can be prevented or avoided by changing the planned approach ? Insurance – or Bonding Risk Response Development Source: PMBOK Guide 2023 Version 169。 2023 RobbinsGioia, Inc. 1149 Tools Techniques ? Expected moary value – Estimate of the probability that the risk event will occur – Estimate of the gain or loss that will be incurred if the risk event does occur – Risk events reflect both tangibles and intangibles ? Statistical sums – Calculation of the range of total project costs, based on the cost estimates for individual work items. Used to quantify the relative risk of alternative project budgets or proposals. Quantification Risk Analysis Source: PMBOK Guide 2023 Version 169。 2023 RobbinsGioia, Inc. 1147 Tools Techniques Mitigation (Corrective action) Avoidance (Prevention) Acceptance (Accept consequences) Risk Response Planning Transference (Shift Responsibility) Source: PMBOK Guide 2023 Version 169。 2023 RobbinsGioia, Inc. 1145 Risk Response Planning Process of developing options and determining actions to enhance opportunities and reduce threats to the project’s objectives ?Risk response planning must be appropriate to the severity of the risk, cost effective in meeting the challenge, timely to be successful, realistic within the project context, agreed upon by all parties involved, and owned by a responsive person Source: PMBOK Guide 2023 Version 169。 2023 RobbinsGioia, Inc. 1143 Tools Techniques (cont.) Results from a Monte Carlo Simulation of a Project Schedule Days After Project Start 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 Cumulative Probability This Scurve shows the cumulative probability of project pletion by a particular date. For example, the intersection of the dashed ones shows that there is a 50 percent probability that the project will be finished within 145 day