【正文】
。所以,這其實(shí)更像醫(yī)生診斷的過程。 隨著大家的互相了解,后續(xù)交流將會更加深入和有針對性。 shrinking scale to exaggerate growth?! ”热绮粯?biāo)記Y軸刻度,只展示百分比增長而不展示絕對值等等都屬于此類小聰明?! 〉谑?、(vs. Growth Metrics) 如果要看增長情況就需要對個(gè)月的數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行縱向?qū)Ρ?,通常,累?jì)數(shù)字畫出的圖表說明不了太多問題。實(shí)際上,明智的投資人不會被用了障眼法的圖表所欺騙?! 〗M內(nèi)縱向?qū)Ρ瓤梢钥闯鲇脩艋钴S度的變化趨勢; 組間橫向?qū)Ρ瓤梢钥闯龊竺娴腸ohort是否較之前的cohort在用戶活躍度上有所提升?! urn rate is the rate at which cash is decreasing. Especially in early stage startups, it’s important to know and monitor burn rate as panies fail when they are running out of cash and don’t have enough time left to raise funds or reduce expenses. As a reminder, here’s a simple calculation: Monthly cash burn = cash balance at the beginning of the year minus cash balance end of the year / 12 It’s also important to measure net burn vs. gross burn: Net burn [revenues (including all ining cash you have a high probability of receiving) – gross burn] is the true measure of amount of cash your pany is burning every month. Gross burn on the other hand only looks at your monthly expenses + any other cash outlays. Investors tend to focus on net burn to understand how long the money you have left in the bank will last for you to run the pany. They will also take into account the rate at which your revenues and expenses grow as monthly burn may not be a constant number. 第十三、 下載數(shù)(Downloads) 對于投資人而言,單純的下載數(shù)沒有太大意義,能夠顯示出用戶參與活躍度的數(shù)字才有評估價(jià)值?! ∮捎谌惢顒?dòng)的共同影響,現(xiàn)金的消耗率在各個(gè)月份之間一定不是一成不變甚至?xí)休^高的波動(dòng)。這三類活動(dòng)分別是經(jīng)營活動(dòng)(生產(chǎn)及銷售商品,提供服務(wù)的活動(dòng))、投資活動(dòng)(長期資產(chǎn)的構(gòu)建及處置)和融資活動(dòng)(直接引起企業(yè)負(fù)債或所有者權(quán)益變動(dòng)的活動(dòng))?! ⊥顿Y人需要知道創(chuàng)業(yè)團(tuán)隊(duì)的現(xiàn)金的支出計(jì)劃,創(chuàng)業(yè)者需要知道錢花到什么程度時(shí)應(yīng)該達(dá)到什么業(yè)務(wù)水平、什么時(shí)候需要進(jìn)行后續(xù)融資。應(yīng)該如何理解它呢? 單純的看現(xiàn)金消耗率,分為凈現(xiàn)金消耗率和毛現(xiàn)金消耗率: 毛現(xiàn)金消耗的驅(qū)動(dòng)因素就是公司在特定期間的現(xiàn)金流出總量; 凈現(xiàn)金消耗是公司在特定期間內(nèi)收入的現(xiàn)金部分減去毛現(xiàn)金消耗的數(shù)字。 There’re all kinds of churn — dollar churn, customer churn, net dollar churn — and there are varying definitions for how churn is measured. For example, some panies measure it on a revenue basis annually, which blends upsells with churn. Investors look at it the following way: Monthly unit churn = lost customers/prior month total Retention by cohort Month 1 = 100% of installed base Latest Month = % of original installed base that are still transacting It is also important to differentiate between gross churn and net revenue churn — Gross churn: MRR lost in a given month/MRR at the beginning of the month. Net churn: (MRR lost minus MRR from upsells) in a given month/MRR at the beginning of the month. The difference between the two is significant. Gross churn estimates the actual loss to the business, while net revenue churn understates the losses (as it blends upsells with absolute churn). 第十二、現(xiàn)金消耗率(Burn Rate) 現(xiàn)金是企業(yè)運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)、擴(kuò)張的血液,進(jìn)攻、防守和抵御風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的彈藥,因此,創(chuàng)業(yè)者、企業(yè)家對于公司的現(xiàn)金流和現(xiàn)金消耗情況必須非常關(guān)注?! ×硗猓瑢τ诟咚僭鲩L的SaaS公司而言,用戶續(xù)約率(Customer Renewal Rate)也是一個(gè)非常關(guān)鍵的指標(biāo)?! ∵@里有一個(gè)cohort analysis(斷代分析)的概念,就是把每個(gè)月的新用戶分組(每個(gè)月的用戶合稱為一個(gè)cohort)后記錄其留存率?! τ赟aaS公司而言,單純希望依靠獲取新客戶實(shí)現(xiàn)長期增長幾乎是不可能的事情,所以upselling和cross selling的能力就格外重要?! RR凈流失率考慮了公司對現(xiàn)有用戶進(jìn)行增量銷售的因素。 對于MRR的流失率有兩個(gè)計(jì)算維度: 一個(gè)是MRR毛流失率,即當(dāng)月流失的MRR/月初MRR; 一個(gè)是MRR凈流失率,即(當(dāng)月流失的MRR原有用戶的MRR增長數(shù))/月初MRR?! ften this measured as the simple average of monthly growth rates. But investors often prefer to measure it as CMGR (Compounded Monthly Growth Rate) since CMGR measures the periodic growth, especially for a marketplace. Using CMGR [CMGR = (Latest Month/ First Month)^(1/ of Months) 1] also helps you benchmark growth rates with other panies. This would otherwise be difficult to pare due to volatility and other factors. The CMGR will be smaller than the simple average in a growing business. 第十一、流失率(Churn) 流失率對于SaaS業(yè)務(wù)來說是至關(guān)重要的指標(biāo)。對于高速增長的初創(chuàng)企業(yè)使用CMGC更加容易看出高速增長行業(yè)內(nèi)橫向?qū)Ρ鹊臉I(yè)務(wù)增長趨勢。 CMGC=(當(dāng)前月數(shù)字/基礎(chǔ)月數(shù)字)^(1/月份數(shù)目) 1 CMGC是一個(gè)復(fù)利概念,它把短期的劇烈波動(dòng)因素去除掉,是對產(chǎn)品或者產(chǎn)業(yè)的增長潛力、變遷趨勢進(jìn)行評估的長期視角。 Different panies have almost unlimited definitions for what “active” means. Some charts don’t even define what that activity is, while others include inadvertent activity — such as having a high proportion of firsttime users or accidental onetime users. Be clear on how you define “active.” 第十、環(huán)比增長率(Monthonmonth (MoM) growth) 普通環(huán)比增長率受到短期因素的影響波動(dòng)可能較大,其對比價(jià)值有限?! 〉诰拧⒒钴S用戶數(shù)(Active Users) 活躍用戶是需要被加以定義的,原則上說,投資人一定會給一個(gè)謹(jǐn)慎的評判標(biāo)準(zhǔn)來衡量什么樣的用戶才是“活躍”的。它反映了公司對用戶的議價(jià)能力、押款能力,如果Billing的增長勢頭好,可能說明公司的業(yè)務(wù)進(jìn)入強(qiáng)勢增長階段。Billing是財(cái)務(wù)流程中的一個(gè)動(dòng)作,其本身不屬于財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)告概念?! ‘?dāng)公司履行了預(yù)收賬款所對應(yīng)的服務(wù)后,公司才可以在當(dāng)月把這部分被作為負(fù)債的“未實(shí)現(xiàn)收益”從資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表轉(zhuǎn)到利潤表里確認(rèn)為收入(即所謂“已實(shí)現(xiàn)收益”)?! ≡谛问缴希A(yù)收賬款