[經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)]貨幣金融學(xué)課件lecture(參考版)
2025-01-24 20:55本頁面
【正文】 2022 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved. 634 Yield curve as a forecasting tool The yield curve has relevance not only for assessing investment opportunities, but for policymakers who are trying to predict conditions in the macroeconomy ? Recall that rising interest rates are associated with expansions, and falling rates with recessions. ? If the yield curve is negativelysloped, indicating expectations of falling shortterm rates, it may be a predictor of a recession ? Recall that a rise in expected inflation causes interest rates to rise. ? A steep yield curve is a predictor of a rise in inflation, while a flat or downsloping curve predicts a fall in inflation. ? Alternatively: steep curve indicates loose moary policy, while a flat or downsloping curve indicates tight policy. ? Copyright 169。 2022 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved. 629 Copyright 169。 2022 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved. 627 Liquidity Premium Theory in t?it? it ? 1e? it ? 2e? . . . ? it ? ( n ? 1 )en? ln tw h e r e ln t i s t h e l i q u i d i t y p r e m i u m f o r t h e n p e r i o d b o n d a t t i m e tln t i s a l w a y s p o s i t i v eR i s e s w i t h t h e t e r m t o m a t u r i t yCopyright 169。 2022 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved. 626 Liquidity Premium amp。 2022 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved. 623 Expectations Theory ? Explains why interest rates on bonds with different maturities move together over time (fact 1) A rise in shortterm rates will raise people’s expectations of future shortterm interest rates, thus raise longterm rates, causing shortterm and long term rates to move together ? Explains why yield curves tend to slope up when shortterm rates are low and slope down when shortterm rates are high (fact 2) ? When shortterm interest rates are low ,people generally expect them to rise to some normal level in the future? average of future expected shortterm rates is high relative to current shortterm rate? long term interest rte will be higher then current shortterm rate ? Cannot explain why yield curves usually slope upward (fact 3) ? The typical upward slope of yield curves implies that short term rates are usually expected to rise in the future. In practice, short term rates are just as likely to fall as they are to rise? yield curve should be flat Copyright 169。 2022 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved. 621 Expectations Theory— In General (cont’d) 2112B oth b on ds w i l l b e h e l d on l y if the e xp e c t e d r e t ur ns a r e e qu a l22T he tw o pe r i od r a t e m ust e qu a l the a v e r a ge o
教學(xué)課件相關(guān)推薦
鄂ICP備17016276號-1