【正文】 回歸 Regression DA 4 Basic Tools Basic Tools Six Sigma Training 41 Simple Linear Regression Example MS Excel / Chart Wizard / XY (Scatter) / Chart / Add Trendline / Add Equation on Chart / Add R2 on Chart C h a r t T i t l ey = 0 .9 3 0 1 x + 6 .7 2 9 2R2 = 0 .8 3 305101520253035400 5 10 15 20 25 30 35BL i n e a r ( B )回歸 Regression DA 4 Basic Tools Basic Tools Six Sigma Training 42 The Equation ? y = bx + a ? Find b as shown below ? Once b is know, a is found at the average y and x S xiyi S xi S yi n S xi2 nx2 b = a = y bx 回歸 Regression DA 4 Basic Tools Basic Tools Six Sigma Training 43 R2 ? R2 explains the variation in Y explained with X and the model ? 90% or better is outstanding, the business could be managed by this model ? 70 to 90% is good ? Less than 70%, look for other factors ? ?? ?? ?222222yyxxyxxyr????回歸 Regression DA 4 Basic Tools Basic Tools Six Sigma Training 44 根本原因 Root Cause 現(xiàn)在找到了根本原因 Root Cause is Now Found… 這是一個里程碑 ! 你一直在執(zhí)行你的處理問題的計劃 This is a milestone point! Until now you have been executing your plan of attack 現(xiàn)在你要開展你的計劃去解決問題 Now you will develop your plan to solve 團隊成員可能有所變化 Team members may shift DA 4 Basic Tools Basic Tools Six Sigma Training 45 分析和最優(yōu)化 Analyze and Optimize 與找出根本原因類似 … Similar to finding the Root Cause… 有時尋找解決方案可以用頭腦風暴法 ,親合圖然后挑選出一個最佳方案 Sometimes solution seeking can be a Brainstorming, Affinity Diagram and then a decision on which optimum solution to pick. 你的目標是找到讓所有關(guān)鍵股東都最滿意的解決方案 Your goal is to find a solution that best satisfies all involved stakeholders. DA 4 Basic Tools Basic Tools Six Sigma Training 46 加權(quán)解決方案抉擇矩陣 A Weighted Solution Selection Matrix ? 幫助團隊給所有相關(guān)人員挑選一個最佳的 解決方案 . Helps the team select an optimal solution for everyone involved ? 它可以消除通常發(fā)生的某些個人因素產(chǎn)生的偏差 It eliminates some of the personal one sided bias that often occurs 在選擇解決方案時 , 團隊要了解并平衡一個以上的標準 The team needs to understand and balance more than one criteria when selecting a solution. ? 典型的標準包括 Typical criteria include… ? 單位成本 Unit Cost ? 開發(fā)成本 Development Cost ? 執(zhí)行時間 Implementation Time ? 計算客戶風險 Calculated Risk to Customer ? 改進的數(shù)量 Improvement Amount 解決方案抉擇矩陣同樣可用于系統(tǒng)問題和商務問題 Solution Matrix also works well for systemic or transactional problems 解決方案矩陣 Solution Matrix DA 4 Basic Tools Basic Tools Six Sigma Training 47 加權(quán)解決方案抉擇矩陣的步驟 Steps to create a Weighted Solution Selection Matrix 1)定義評定 解決方案的標準 Define the criteria for assessing the solutions. ? 典型的標準包括 Typical criteria include。 Diagram that illustrates the relationship between a problem and it?s possible causes in categories. ? 典型的原因分為 6 Ms 人 , 機器 , 方法 , 測量 , 自然的固有原因 Categories typically follow the 6 Ms... Man, Machine, Material, Methods, Measurement, Mother Nature Groups Brainstorming and Affinity Diagrams into one tool while showing path to a potential root cause. 工廠 人 程序 規(guī)章制度 原因 為什么 DA 4 Basic Tools Basic Tools Six Sigma Training 18 因果圖 Cause and Effect Diagrams 如何創(chuàng)建因果圖 How to construct a cause and effect diagram: ? 以問題陳述為開始 (魚頭 ) Start with the Problem Statement (Fish Head) ? 依據(jù)通常的分類規(guī)則列出主要的類別 (魚骨 )并標記 List the major categories (bones) and label these as broad categories for the type of discipline ? 對每一類別 , 列出可能的 , 不和已知的問題和數(shù)據(jù)沖突的原因 For each category, list possible causes that do not conflict with known problem definition and data ? 對每一個原因 , 繼續(xù)問為什么并在更小的魚骨上記錄子原因 For each cause, ask ?why? and record lower level causes as smaller bones ? 重復上述步驟 , 對每一項都達到根本原因?qū)用? Repeat until at the root level for each item DA 4 Basic Tools Basic Tools Six Sigma Training 19 因果圖 Cause and Effect Diagrams 典型的分類規(guī)則 Typical categories per discipline… ? 服務行業(yè) Service Industry (The 4 Ps) ? 規(guī)章制度 , 程序 , 人 , 工廠 /技術(shù) Policies, Procedures, People, Plant/Technology ? 制造業(yè) Manufacturing Industries (The 6 Ms) ? 機器 , 方法 , 材料 , 測量 ,自然的固有原因 (環(huán)境 ) , 人力 (人 ) Machines, Methods, Materials, Measurements, Mother Nature (Environment), Manpower (People) ? 市場 Marketing ? 確定客戶 , 廣告 , 購買動機 , 賣 , 載運 , 提供升級 Determine Customers, Advertise, Purchase Incentive, Sell, Ship, Provide Upgrade 軟件工程有那些可能的分類 ? What are a few potential categories for Software Engineering? DA 4 Basic Tools Basic Tools Six Sigma Training 20 間隙不穩(wěn) 人員 方法 環(huán)境 測量 材料 機器設備 供應商 性能不穩(wěn)定 材質(zhì)不均勻 震動過大 精度 設定不合理 無校驗手段 技術(shù)水平 人員不固定 夜班易疲勞 缺乏考核和獎勵 檢驗方法 操作與檢驗不一致 不易掌握 量具精度不夠 量具未校驗 工廠粉塵 潮濕 工藝參數(shù) 溫度設置低 加壓時間短 模具 精度不夠 磨損 制造類問題因果圖如下： DA 4 Basic Tools Basic Tools Six Sigma Training 21 病人在尋找X光室時遇到困難 人 程序 場所設備 政策 隔離限制 擁擠的走廊 登記處未提供指示 走廊布局圖 場所標記 登記處排隊 醫(yī)院法規(guī)對 X光室位置的強制性要求 服務管理類問題因果圖如下： DA 4 Basic Tools Basic Tools Six Sigma Training 22 因果圖 練習 Cause and Effect Diagrams Exercise 以小組為單位 , 創(chuàng)建下列問題的因果圖 As a team, create a cause and effect diagram on a flip chart for the following problem statement: 一杯好咖啡 咖啡杯 過濾器 咖啡制作者 研磨程序 咖啡豆 水 調(diào)羹 ,甜味料 , 奶油 咖啡壺 烘培程序 DA 4 Basic Tools Basic Tools Six Sigma Training 23 分析和最優(yōu)化 Analyze and Optimize 一旦你有了一個完整的魚骨 , 你就會很好地了解問題的潛在根本原因 . 明智的做法是讓你的團隊以某種方式 (比如 ,多層次投票法 )按優(yōu)先順序排列已在魚骨上確認的可能原因 , 這樣你就有了解決問題的最初的行動機會 . Once you have the fishbone pleted, you are well on your way to understanding potential root causes of your problem. It would be advisable to have your team prioritize in some manner (hint: MultiVoting) the likely causes identified on the fishbone to scope your first actions for problem resolution. DA 4 Basic Tools Basic Tools Six Sigma Training 24 分析和最優(yōu)化 Analyze and Optimiz