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【正文】 d – Only few petitive panies remain, many (even privatized, but unpetitive) panies are likely to fail – Unclear role of stateowned panies – big, still stateowned panies are likely to stay (even if privatization fails) Privatized panies that are active in restructuring / MAs will follow their path mainly without Western partners – CEE chemical panies can bee serious petitors on the EU stage Capture market potential and growth through export and FDI Enter market with brand and marketing power Participate in market developments through Greenfield investments Use time window of low factor costs to optimize EU 25 global footprint Capture the advantage of homogeneous EU25 policy and market EU firms must integrate the new CEE countries in their EU25 strategies KEY DEVELOPMENTS IN CEE OPPORTUNITIES FOR WESTERN COMPANIES Likely future developments in CIS: Large players win against small ones – also opportunities for EU firms Big gasoildriven and Western panies will gain momentum against SMEs – Many SMEs are likely to disappear (weak financial resources, limited marketing power, lack of RD, unpetitive price position, etc.) Gas/oilbased and selected raw materialbased panies will expand their chemicals portfolio downstream – Often in cooperation with international partners – Open for FDIs Participate in raw material / supply advantage by trading in technology and process knowhow and capital Cooperate with big oil / gas and raw material firms Capture consumptiondriven market potential through Greenfield investments or joint venture with raw material / basic chemicals manufacturers In the meantime: Build up consumerdriven segments with export and marketing activities in CIS EU firms can capture supply / energy advantages and market potential KEY DEVELOPMENTS IN CEE OPPORTUNITIES FOR WESTERN COMPANIES CIS with disadvantages vis224。 vis Middle East: Higher logistics cost for gas / raw materials production LOGISTICS COST [USD / t kdPD] Russia – Western Europe LOGISTICS COST [USD / t kdPD] Middle East – Western Europe Railway 28 USD / ton Shipping 5 USD / ton Loading 20 USD / ton CIS EU 15 Tanker loading terminal Railway Shipping route Middle East Total 53 USD / ton Shipping 16 USD / ton Loading 20 USD / ton Total 36 USD / ton Similar production costs in CIS and Middle East – but much higher logistics costs from CIS to Western Europe diminishes petitiveness Outlook: The focus of the global chemical industry is moving ever more to the east 4. FAR EAST Demand powerhouse Production center for fine / specification chemicals CEE / CIS CEE: Increasingly petitive production site CIS: Raw material provider MIDDLE EAST Future powerhouse of petrochemicals (especially natural gas / ethylenebased derivates) CEE/CIS: Opportunities especially for EU panies to overe growth barriers at home – but the real opportunities are in Far and Middle East! D. Conclusion Conclusion: The changing face of Europe offers broad business opportunities – also for the chemical industry The 2023 EU enlargement is changing the face of Europe – ten relatively poor but fastgrowing countries have joined the largest economic region in the world For the EU 15, this means opportunities and threats – both on the macroeconomic and microeconomic levels The European / global chemical industry can benefit from the changes in Eastern Europe – more than it already does – … – by capturing the market potential / consumption gap in CEE and CIS – by seeing CEE as a catalyst to optimize EU25 asset footprint and strategy – by participating in supply advantages in CIS Western chemical firms should invest in / perate CEE and CIS now !!!
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