【正文】 Noordwijk, October 4, 2023 Prof. Roland Berger Chairman, Roland Berger Strategy Consultants EU enlargement – new opportunities for the chemical industry A. The changing face of Europe B. Challenges and opportunities of enlargement for EU 15 C. Opportunities for EU 15 chemical players in CEE and CIS D. Conclusion Contents A. The changing face of Europe % of EU 25 France, Germany, Italy and Benelux: Six wealthy core countries start economic integration process in 1957 EU 6 (1957)* * 2023 data Europe39。s core countries had sluggish growth over the last ten years: Average growth % . in Germany, % in France, % Netherlands GDP/capita [USD] 28,608 % % % of US Population [m] 227 % % GDP [USD bn] 6,494 % % Denmark, Ireland and the United Kingdom: First accession round after 16 years increases economic power EU 9 (1973)* * 2023 data As a result of EU integration, Ireland39。s economic growth has been outstandingly high over the past ten years: % . (DK %, UK %) Population [m] 297 % % GDP/capita [USD] 29,141 % % GDP [USD bn] 8,655 % % % of EU 25 % of US Greece: A poorer country joins the European Union in 1981 – first discussions about dilution EU 10 (1981)* * 2023 data Greece now has high average growth rates (% . from 19952023) – partly due to European money from structural / regional funds GDP [USD bn] 8,827 % % Population [m] 308 % % GDP/capita [USD] 28,659 % % % of EU 25 % of US Spain and Portugal: Accession of two less developed southern countries reduces EU39。s average wealth EU 12 (1986)* * 2023 data Today, the southern countries contribute to EU growth: Spain (% . since 1995) and Portugal (% .) achieved high average growth rates GDP [USD bn] 9,816 % % Population [m] 359 % % % % GDP/capita [USD] 27,343 % of EU 25 % of US Sweden, Finland and Austria: Europe39。s northern enlargement pushes up the average GDP per capita EU 15 (1995)* * 2023 data Stimulus to EU growth over the past ten years: Finland39。s economy grew % . on average, Sweden39。s % ., and Austria39。s % . GDP [USD bn] 10,534 % % Population [m] 381 % % GDP/capita [USD] 27,648 % % % of EU 25 % of US GDP [USD bn] 11,028 % Population [m] 455 % Eastern Europe, Malta and Cyprus: The biggest round of enlargement ever changes the face of Europe EU 25 (2023)* * 2023 data GDP growth rates of up to % . in CEE (average % . since 39。95) But: Enlargement is a big challenge for European Union to create wealth GDP/capita [USD] 24,237 % % of US 50 years of enlargement: Compared to the US, the EU has gained size at the expense of average wealth Today, Europe39。s GDP per capita is only about twothirds that of the US – in terms of total GDP, both economies are now parable EU vs. US* [US=100%] 1957 EU 6 1973 EU 9 1981 EU 10 1986 EU 12 1995 EU 15 2023 EU 25 GDP Inhabitants GDP per capita US = 100 * based on 2023 data Wealth gap: Ten years ago, the north of the European Union was rich and the south was poor South gained wealth in EU: From % of EU9 (1986) to % today 1995: Gap between north and south* 1995 * 2023 data ** EU 12 *** Portugal, Spain, Greece GDP [USD bn] Unemployment [%] Population [m] SOUTH*** NORTH** 1,161 9,373 62 319 RATIO 9:1 GDP per capita [USD] 18,726 29,383 3:2 2:3 5:1 7,429 27,620 4:1 Today, the gap is between east and west – GDP per capita in the EU 15 is four times higher than in EU 10 2023: Gap between east and west EU support will help EU 10 economic development to reach EU 15 wealth 2023 EU 10 EU 15 493 10,534 74 381 RATIO 21:1 4:5 5:1 GDP [USD bn] Unemployment [%] Population [m] GDP pe