中級(jí)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)上海財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院沈凌17international1(62)-資料下載頁
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【正文】 Chapter 17 52 The Terms of Trade ? The Terms of Trade and the CurrentAccount Balance ? currentaccount balance in nominal terms is Bft ? Bft?1 = P Yt+ rt?1Bft?1 ? P ( Ct+ It+ Gt) nominal currentaccount balance = nomimal GNP ? nominal domestic expenditure Macroeconomics Chapter 17 53 The Terms of Trade ? Bft ? Bft?1 = P Yt+ rt?1Bft?1 ? Pf ( Ct+ It+ Gt) ? (Bft ? Bft?1)/Pf = (P/Pf)Yt+ rt?1(Bft?1/Pf) ? ( Ct+ It+ Gt) ? a real value in the sense of being measured in units of foreign goods. Macroeconomics Chapter 17 54 The Terms of Trade ? (Bft ? Bft?1 )/Pf= (P/Pf)Yt+ rt?1Bft?1/Pf ?δKt?1 ? (Ct+Gt) ? (It?δKt?1) ? real currentaccount balance= real national saving ? domestic investment Macroeconomics Chapter 17 55 The Terms of Trade ? The Terms of Trade and the CurrentAccount Balance ? An increase in P/Pf raises real GNP, measured in units of foreign goods, for a given Yt. ? Households respond to the higher real GNP by increasing consumption, Ct. The response of Ct is larger the more longlasting the rise in P/Pf. ? As long as the change is less than fully permanent, Ct tends to rise by less than real GNP. ? Therefore, real national saving increases ? The real currentaccount balance moves toward surplus. Macroeconomics Chapter 17 56 The Terms of Trade ? The Terms of Trade and Investment ? an increase in the terms of trade, P/Pf, affects domestic investment, It?δKt?1. ? real rate of return on capital = (P/Pf)MPK ? δ Macroeconomics Chapter 17 57 The Terms of Trade ? The Terms of Trade and Investment ? The effect of higher terms of trade, P/Pf, on domestic investment, It ? δKt?1, is analogous to the effect we considered before from an increase in the technology level, A. ? When A increased, the rise in the MPK raised the real rate of return on capital. We noted that the response of It ? δKt?1 would be large, typically greater than the increase in real national saving. ? The same conclusion applies when the terms of trade, P/Pf, rise. It ? δKt?1 will rise by more than real national saving. ? Therefore, the real currentaccount balance moves overall toward deficit. Macroeconomics Chapter 17 58 The Terms of Trade ? The Terms of Trade and Investment ? we predict that an increase in the terms of trade, P/Pf, that is expected to be permanent moves the currentaccount balance toward deficit. ? The reason is that the expansion of domestic investment, It ? δKt?1, tends to be greater than the rise of real national saving. Macroeconomics Chapter 17 59 The Terms of Trade ? The Terms of Trade and Investment ? we predict that an increase in P/Pf that is expected to be temporary moves the currentaccount balance toward surplus. ? In this case, the increase of It ? δKt?1 tends to be smaller than the rise of real national saving. Macroeconomics Chapter 17 60 Macroeconomics Chapter 17 61 The Volume of International Trade ? The trade balance is given by ? trade balance= Yt? ( Ct+ It+ Gt) ? trade balance= exports? imports ? trade balance= exports Macroeconomics Chapter 17 62 The Volume of International Trade ? When we studied the impact of the home country’s technology level, A, and other variables on the currentaccount balance, the effects worked through changes in exports. ? However, the model has nothing to say about the volume of international trade—that is, the absolute levels of exports and imports.
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