【導讀】測事故的發(fā)展，以及對定義安全目標和評估工業(yè)安全特別有益。事故分析是應用非常有限的。目前迫切需要一個將實時事故分析與研究相結合的行為。將自動檢測和視頻錄制相。結合的研究交通事故的科研論文會比較容易接受。這種類型的研究最終會對交通理念有個完。而這些調查數字已經在其他地方發(fā)表了。事實證明，用來解釋事故的。大部分有關信息就是事故中缺少的記錄。尤其是車-車相撞發(fā)生的車禍，這是在荷蘭。這個事故中沒有騎自行車或行人在擁擠路口分散他的注意。在事故發(fā)生的相關條件下，幾乎。不可能觀察下一個交通行為，因為交通事故是不可預見的。這些行為主要是與交通系。在最高一級事故總數減少。傷亡人數往往與同一事?？臻g或在不同地點發(fā)生的的事故同樣具有可能性。對于這些時期的總和泊松率則等于為這些地方的泊松率的總和。泊松假設是研究了很多次，來獲得證據支持。泊松假設成立，而意外數字可以相互測試的泊松假設的基礎。

　　

【正文】 n trends. 4. The unit of analysis is generalised from counts to weighted counts. This is especially advantageous for road safety analyses, where corrections for period of time, number of road users, number of locations or number of vehicle kilometres is often necessary. The last option is not found in many statistical packages. Andersen 1977 gives an example for road safety analysis in a twoway table. A puter programme WPM, developed for this type of analysis of multiway tables, is available at SWOV (see: De Leeuw and Oppe 1976). The accident analysis at this level is not explanatory. It tries to detect safety problems that need special attention. The basic information needed consists of accident numbers, to describe the total amount of unsafety, and exposure data to calculate risks and to find situations or (groups of) road users with a high level of risk. 4. Accident analysis for research purposes. Traffic safety research is concerned with the occurrence of accidents and their consequences. Therefore, one might say that the object of research is the accident. The researchers interest however is less focused at this final oute itself, but much more at the process that results (or does not result) in accidents. Therefore, it is better to regard the critical event in traffic as his object of study. One of the major problems in the study of the traffic process that results in accidents is, that the actual occurrence is hardly ever observed by the researcher. Investigating a traffic accident, he will try to reconstruct the event from indirect sources such as the information given by the road users involved, or by eyewitnesses, about the circumstances, the characteristics of the vehicles, the road and the drivers. As such this is not unique in science, there are more examples of an indirect study of the object of research. However, a second difficulty is, that the object of research cannot be evoked. Systematic research by means of controlled experiments is only possible for aspects of the problem, not for the problem itself. The bination of indirect observation and lack of systematic control make it very difficult for the investigator to detect which factors, under what circumstances cause an accident. Although the researcher is primarily interested in the process leading to accidents, he has almost exclusively information about the consequences, the product of it, the accident. Furthermore, the context of accidents is plicated. Generally speaking, the following aspects can be distinguished: Given the state of the traffic system, traffic volume and position, the manoeuvres of the road users, their speeds, the weather conditions, the condition of the road, the vehicles, the road users 11 11 and their interactions, accidents can or cannot be prevented. Given an accident, also depending on a large number of factors, such as the speed and mass of vehicles, the collision angle, the protection of road users and their vulnerability, the location of impact etc., injuries are more or less severe or the material damage is more or less substantial. Although these aspects cannot be studied independently, from a theoretical point of view it has advantages to distinguish the number of situations in traffic that are potentially dangerous, from the probability of having an accident given such a potentially dangerous situation and also from the resulting oute, given a particular accident. This conceptual framework is the general basis for the formulation of risk regarding the decisions of individual road users as well as the decisions of controllers at higher levels. In the mathematical formulation of risk we need an explicit description of our probability space, consisting of the elementary events (the situations) that may result in accidents, the probability for each type of event to end up in an accident, and finally the particular oute, the loss, given that type of accident. A different approach is to look at binations of accident characteristics, to find critical factors. This type of analysis may be carried out at the total group of accidents or at subgroups. The accident itself may be the unit of research, but also a road, a road location, a road design (. a roundabout) etc.