對外貿(mào)易外文翻譯--貿(mào)易開放和經(jīng)濟增長：出口導向型還是進口導向型？-資料下載頁
2025-10-23 03:47本頁面
【導讀】本文著重在進口和出口上重新審視阿根廷、哥倫比亞和秘魯之間的貿(mào)易和經(jīng)。Granger因果檢驗和脈沖響應函數(shù)是用來檢查貿(mào)易的增長是否刺激經(jīng)濟增長。雖然有一些經(jīng)驗證據(jù)支持出口導向型增長，進口主導的經(jīng)濟增長假說的實證支持相對較強。在某些情況下，也有從國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值增長，出口和進口的反向因果關系的證據(jù)。外向型貿(mào)易政策對經(jīng)濟增長的潛在的利益已經(jīng)成為許多實證調(diào)查的主題。否是定向向內(nèi)拉動經(jīng)濟增長的可取貿(mào)易政策。關系，并以此作為出口導向型增長理論。表明，經(jīng)濟增長可能主要是由進口增長帶動的。Thangavelu和Rajaguru，2020年）。通常是與進口的快速增長相結(jié)合的。護主義政策，強調(diào)進口替代工業(yè)化戰(zhàn)略。類似的證據(jù)表明這三個國家的所有最大特征值存在協(xié)整關系。的存在意味著ECM規(guī)范是合理的，此外，ECM規(guī)范的殘差是白噪聲。量ECM規(guī)范的Granger因果關系被檢驗。證實ILG進口沖擊對產(chǎn)出增長具有積極和重大的影響。實際GDP增長的積極響應?？傮w而言，這項研究顯示，進口對經(jīng)濟增長的
【正文】 as the response of real GDP growth to innovations in real exports is not significantly different from zero at all horizons. In contrast, the evidence appears to confirm ILG as a shock to imports has a positive and significant effect on output growth. Once again, there is feedback causal effects from GDP growth to trade as both exports and imports respond positively to innovations in output growth. Figure 3 reports the impulse response results for Peru. The results show that a one SD positive shock in real exports elicits a persistently positive response from real GDP growth. Although a bit smaller, real GDP response to a positive shock to imports is also significantly positive. Thus, in the case of Peru, there is empirical evidence in support for both the ELG and ILG hypotheses. As indicated before, output growth also has a positive and significant impact on both exports and imports. Ⅲ . Concluding Remarks In summary, this study’s results confirm that the exclusion of imports and the singular focus of many past studies on just the role of exports as the engine of growth may be misleading or at best inplete. Current empirical evidence from selected Latin American countries provides empirical support for both ELG and ILG hypothesis. In some cases, there is also evidence for reverse causality from GDP growth to exports and imports. Overall, this study shows that the strength of the effect of imports on growth is relatively stronger than the effect of exports. Thus, it is reasonable to conclude that for several Latin American countries both exports and imports play a very important role in stimulating economic growth.. There are several policy implications of this finding for Latin America and other developing countries. First, export promotion as a strategy for economic growth would only be partially effective if import restrictions are maintained. Second, import openness is very important to economic growth as it plements the role of exports .Third, developing economies with limited technological endowment could benefit from access to foreign technology and knowledge from developed countries via imports (Grossman and Helpman, 1991。 Coe and Helpman, 1995). As evident from the experiences of large developing countries that adopted the importsubstitution growth strategy, large scale import restrictions can be a constraint to economic growth. Finally, it is remended that future empirical research focusing on the impact of trade liberalization should explicitly account for the role of imports in stimulating economic growth. It may be useful to extend the analytical framework used in this study to other developing countries.
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