【正文】 tail chain discovered the following correlation for whatever reason, new fathers buy disposable baby diapers and beer on the same shopping trip. This led to many, many thoughtful ideas not at least which was they never discount diapers and beer on the same day.So we believe that deep puting is a trend that will have a profound effect on merce and on society. Of course a concept throwing big problems at puters is not a new idea. Its rules can be traced at the very origins of the industry. The difference today is that the systems are so much more powerful and so much more affordable that they can be used by businesses and governments and institutions of all sizes.The second major development in Information Technology is of course for a topic, already discussed here this evening, and that is the rise of global networks, like the Internet to create a network world, or what some call a network economy. About 16 million people use the Internet today. And the estimates are that that number will grow to 500 million, and perhaps someday to a billion. Now what will these connected people going to do, or they want to do? Not too long ago, people in my industry thought that the action was going to be an information dissemination news, weathers, sports scores, online magazines called Ezines, and short consumer information. IBM has had a different view for some time. We believe the real potential of the network world is for conducting transactions of all kinds, between parties of all kinds, an effect that seems to be what is happening. Consider that across Europe Internet sales of about one billion dollars last year are projected to reach 30 billion dollars by the year 2019. One study says that the worldwide Internet merce activity will double, double in the next six month alone. And most of that is business to business transactions. We see the total market for Internet merce hitting 200 billion dollars by the end of the century. And that is a conservative forecast. It is not just about buying and selling. About a year ago IBM coined the term Ebusiness to describe all the ways that people will derive value from the Net. Transactions among employees within the business to prove how products are developed, how ideas are shared, how teams are formed, how work gets done. Transaction between a business and its suppliers, its distributors, its retailers, to increase cycle times, speed and efficiency. And the very important transactions and interactions between governments and citizens, educators and students, healthcare providers and patients. It is a very exciting stuff. And the greatest changes and challenges are not in the technology. In fact, connecting to the Net is relatively easy. The big challenges are in the fundamental transformation of the way things get done in the world. That is because networks are great levelers. They dissolve barriers to entry the neutralized traditional assets like physical stores and branches. Networks dissolved the boundaries within and between panies, countries, continents and timezones. It is not hyperbole to say that the network is quickly emerging as the largest, most dynamic, restless, sleepless marketplace of good services and ideas the world has ever seen. And naturally this es with very profound applications. For one thing, they are all ready, timehonored processes that govern the way things work in the world, the way we buy and sell, the way we distribute things, the way we teach, and the way we interact with each other. That I will tell you that nearly every one of those conventions is being challenged by the network world.－ 25 －