【正文】 利潤調(diào)整為經(jīng)營活動現(xiàn)金流 2004 2005 2006F 2007F 2008F 2009F 2010F凈利潤20,93227,49235,71452,26454,78358,33366,280加/(減):少數(shù)股東應享本年利潤4,3145,1055,3025,5085,7215,9446,175計提資產(chǎn)減值損失準備23,79710,98510,8247,3208,9569,77012,308固定資產(chǎn)折舊8,1095,8836,3946,4447,8588,2108,324無形資產(chǎn)及長期待攤費用攤銷455912575575575575575處置固定資產(chǎn)和其他資產(chǎn)凈收益5901,02800000股權投資收益9896782,2261,4201,5201,5201,520發(fā)行債券利息支出4782,6112,8062,8842,8812,8723,473減:經(jīng)營性應收項目的增加403,382444,982510,215592,369630,771751,500696,941經(jīng)營性應付項目的增加244,958407,583380,139568,088592,182709,228653,551經(jīng)營活動產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金流量凈額100,73813,88370,68849,29340,66541,91252,226處置固定資產(chǎn)和其他資產(chǎn)所收到的現(xiàn)金2,963 4,291 1,966 1,946 2,005 1,989 2,120處置股權投資所收到的現(xiàn)金 2,186 2,306收回對子公司投資 分得股利或利潤所收到的現(xiàn)金 76 116現(xiàn)金流入小計 5,225 6,713 1,966 1,946 2,005 1,989 2,120購建固定資產(chǎn)和其他資產(chǎn)所支付6,757 5,951 6,713 6,713 6,713 5,780 4,880的現(xiàn)金增加股權投資所支付的現(xiàn)金8913,187現(xiàn)金流出小計7,6489,1386,7136,7136,7135,7804,880投資活動產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金流量凈額2,4232,4254,7474,7684,7083,7912,760吸收權益性投資所收到的現(xiàn)金27,001119,345發(fā)行次級債券所收到的現(xiàn)金26,07033,930吸收少數(shù)股東權益性投資所收到1517的現(xiàn)金現(xiàn)金流入小計26,08560,948119,345發(fā)行債券到期所支付的現(xiàn)金3,640償還發(fā)行債券利息所支付的現(xiàn)金1041,4852,8062,8842,8812,8723,473分配股利所支付的現(xiàn)金2,54529,89114,28620,90621,91323,33326,512現(xiàn)金流出小計6,28931,37611,48023,79024,79526,20629,985籌資活動產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金流量凈額19,79629,572130,82423,79024,79526,20629,985現(xiàn)金及現(xiàn)金等價物凈增加額/(減82,808 30,970 52,295 20,736 11,162 11,916 19,481少額)現(xiàn)金及現(xiàn)金等價物－年初余額448,950366,142397,112449,407470,142481,304493,220現(xiàn)金及現(xiàn)金等價物－年末余額366,142397,112449,407470,142481,304493,220512,701附表：財務報表預測與比率分析資產(chǎn)負債表(百萬,人民幣)20052006F2007F撥備/不良貸款%%%總生息資產(chǎn)4,566,1155,078,4465,669,720撥備/總貸款%%%貸款2,125,7352,354,6112,684,431貸款核銷率%%%債券投資1,562,3201,819,4811,998,782損失準備計提比率%%%損益表(百萬,人民幣) 2005 2006F 2007F 資本(C,百萬,人民幣,%) 2005 2006F 2007F凈利息收入100405115416137922風險加權資產(chǎn)3,131,0023,382,9643,762,799凈非息收入156231406218805總貸款2,235,0462,451,5142,777,890營業(yè)收入116028129477156726核心資本充足率%%%營業(yè)費用456044859451673資本充足率%%%營業(yè)稅金及附加568074258854加權風險資產(chǎn)/總資產(chǎn)%%%撥備前利潤647447345896199貸款/生息資產(chǎn)%%%資產(chǎn)減值準備10985108247320存款/總資產(chǎn)%%%稅前利潤537596263588879貸存比%%%所得稅225432208631108權益/總資產(chǎn)%%%少數(shù)股東權益510553025508權益/總貸款%%%營業(yè)外收支13814670資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量(A,%)凈利潤(報表)274923571452264不良貸款比率%%%應收央行 284,348 316,941 371,172 盈利能力(E,百萬,人民幣) 2005 2006F 2007F同業(yè)拆放344,537311,351340,666平均生息資產(chǎn)4,323,0904,781,3405,374,083不良貸款109,31196,90393,459平均孳息負債4,031,7134,458,0034,868,541貸款撥備83,15387,77689,618利息收入167,345200,938240,783總資產(chǎn)4,742,8065,257,3205,852,511利息成本66,94085,523102,861總孳息負債4,191,4084,588,4265,149,010凈利差%%%存款3,703,7774,124,1304,612,701凈息差%%%應付央行30,05528,39034,157債券加權平均收益率%%%同業(yè)拆入345,233326,107392,352成本收入比%%%借入專項資金52,16449,62249,622ROE%%%發(fā)行債券60,17960,17760,177ROEWA%%%總負債4,480,1864,857,7815,425,869ROA%%%股東權益233,842368,640393,540RORWA%%%現(xiàn)金流量表(百萬,人民幣) 2005 2006F 2007F 權益乘數(shù) 經(jīng)營活動產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金流量凈額 13,883 70,688 49,293 流動性(L,%) 2005 2006F 2007F籌資活動產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金流量凈額29,572130,82423,790資產(chǎn)負債率%%%投資活動產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金流量凈額2,4254,7474,768平均貸款/平均總資產(chǎn)%%%匯率變動對現(xiàn)金流量的影響額100603,0950貸款/總資產(chǎn)%%%現(xiàn)金及現(xiàn)金等價物的凈增加額(減少額)30,97052,29520,736平均生息資產(chǎn)/平均總資產(chǎn)%%%現(xiàn)金及現(xiàn)金等價物年初余額366,142397,112449,407生息資產(chǎn)/總資產(chǎn)%%%現(xiàn)金及現(xiàn)金等價物年末余額 397,112 449,407 470,142 杜邦分析(%,相對資產(chǎn)) 2005 2006F 2007F每股指標(人民幣) 2005 2006F 2007F 凈利息收入 % % %每股凈資產(chǎn)凈非息收入%%%每股撥備前利潤營業(yè)收入%%%每股收益(基本)