【正文】 for electrical energy? ? Energy production in next time sample? ? True value indicator must reflect difference of a chosen paramater, between case with and without wind power ? This requires ? Knowledge of entire power system ? Dynamic simulation of entire power system Introduction Dynamic Modelling Aggregated Wind Power Conclusions 47 Dynamic simulation of entire power system (1) ? Simulation tool PROMIX (‘Production Mix’) ? Input data: ? Parameters for all power plants in control area o Power range o Costs of startup and continuous operation o Time for startup and power regulation o Fuel consumption, gas emissions... for various operating regimes ? Time series of aggregated load in control area (resolution: 1 hour) Introduction Dynamic Modelling Aggregated Wind Power Conclusions 48 Dynamic simulation of entire power system (2) ? Output: ? Optimal power generation pattern for every hour ? Fuel consumption, emissions, costs... for every plant amp。 hour ? Integrating wind power time series in input data ? As equivalent reduction of aggregated load ? For large values: ‘reliable’ wind power required ? Results: CO2emission abatement for various levels of installed wind power Introduction Dynamic Modelling Aggregated Wind Power Conclusions 49 Relative annual abatement of CO2emission 0 5 10 15 200246810I ns t alled w ind pow er [ % of s y s t em peak dem and]CO2emission abatement [%]R e l a ti v e a n n u a l C O2 e m i s s i o n a b a te m e n t a sfu n c ti o n o f i n s ta l l e d w i n d p o w e r s c e n a r i o I no reliabili t y 1 h reliabili t y 6 h reliabili t y 12 h reliabili t y 24 h reliabili t yScenario I 5 10 15 20 0 2 4 6 8 Installed wind power [% of peak demand] CO2 emission abatement [% of reference case] Introduction Dynamic Modelling Aggregated Wind Power Conclusions 50 0 5 10 15 200246810I ns t alled w ind pow er [ % of s y s t em peak dem and]CO2emission abatement [%]R e l a ti v e a n n u a l C O2 e m i s s i o n a b a te m e n t a s fu n c ti o n o f i n s ta l l e d w i n d p o w e r s c e n a r i o I I I no reliabili t y 1 h reliabili t y 6 h reliabili t y 12 h reliabili t y 24 h reliabili t y5 10 15 20 0 2 4 6 8 Installed wind power [% of peak demand] Introduction Dynamic Modelling Aggregated Wind Power Conclusions Relative annual abatement of CO2emission Scenario III CO2 emission abatement [% of reference case] 51 Conclusions Value of wind power ? Capacity factor: 20 31 % (spreading) ? Capacity credit: 30 10 % (installed power) ? CO2 emission abatement: ? Optimum: 4% reduction for installed wind power equal to 5% of peak demand ( = 700 MW) Introduction Dynamic Modelling Aggregated Wind Power Conclusions 52 IV. Conclusions Introduction Dynamic Modelling Aggregated Wind Power Conclusions 53 Conclusions (1) ? Technical challenges for wind power integration are identified ? Dynamic models are developed ? responding to needs of quantifying higher electrical amp。 mechanical demands towards wind turbines ? detailed dynamic models, assessing all mechanical/electrical quantities ? simplified dynamic models, allowing rough estimates of wind power absorption potential at busbar Introduction Dynamic Modelling Aggregated Wind Power Conclusions 54 ? Hourly fluctuations of aggregated wind power in Belgium are quantified ? Value of wind power in Belgium assessed with three indicators ? Capacity factor ? Capacity credit ? Abatement of CO2emission by total power generation park ? 700 MW installed power: wind power ≠ negative load Conclusions (2) Introduction Dynamic Modelling Aggregated Wind Power Conclusions 55 Remendations for further research ? Accurate wind speed forecasting ? Integrating forecast updates in implementation of electricity market ? Electricity storage ? Demand side management ? Impact of wind power on European bordercrossing power flows Introduction Dynamic Modelling Aggregated Wind Power Conclusions Impact of wind energy in a future power grid Joris Soens – 15 december 2022,