cashflowestimationandriskanalysis(英文版)(編輯修改稿)
2025-02-27 08:52 本頁面
【文章內(nèi)容簡介】 o the new situation. 12 19 Copyright 169。 2023 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved. ?The relevant depreciation would be the change with the new equipment. ?Also, if the firm sold the old machine now, it would not receive the SV at the end of the machine’s life. This is an opportunity cost for the replacement project. 12 20 Copyright 169。 2023 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved. ? ? ? ? .k1CostvRek1CFNP Vtttttn0t ????? ??Q. If E(INFL) = 5%, is NPV biased? A. YES. k = k* + IP + DRP + LP + MRP. Inflation is in denominator but not in numerator, so downward bias to NPV. Should build inflation into CF forecasts. 12 21 Copyright 169。 2023 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved. Consider project with 5% inflation. Investment remains same, $260. Terminal CF remains same, $35. Operating cash flows: 1 2 3 4 Revenues $210 $220 $232 $243 Op. cost 60% 126 132 139 146 Depr’n 79 108 36 17 Oper. inc. (BT) 5 20 57 80 Tax, 40% 2 8 23 32 Oper. inc. (AT) 3 12 34 48 Add Depr’n 79 108 36 17 Op. CF 82 96 70 65 12 22 Copyright 169。 2023 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved. Here are all the project’s CFs (in thousands) when inflation is considered. Enter CFs in CF register, and I = 10%. NPV = $ IRR = % k = 10% 0 1 2 3 4 260 Terminal CF Project should be accepted. 12 23 Copyright 169。 2023 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved. What are the three types of project risk that are normally considered? ?Standalone risk ?Corporate risk ?Market risk 12 24 Copyright 169。 2023 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved. What is standalone risk? The project’s total risk if it were operated independently. Usually measured by standard deviation (or coefficient of variation). Though it ignores the firm’s diversification among projects and investor’s diversification among firms. 12 25 Copyright 169。 2023 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved. What is corporate risk? The project’s risk giving consideration to the firm’s other projects, ., diversification within the firm. Corporate risk is a function of the project’s NPV and standard deviation and its correlation with the returns on other projects in the firm.
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