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【文章內(nèi)容簡介】 the food for oil programMAJOR IRAQI TRADING PARTNERS 2023France is most important supplier, the US most important customer of Iraqi productsUSD millionAGENDA? Overview Iraq? Economic scenarios for Iraq? Recent developments Source:McKinsey“Good standard”1? Assumes the nonoil sectors of the Iraqi economy grows modestly at a CAGR of 35% over the next 10 years (overall GDP growth incl. oil 911%) “Best in Class”2? Assumes the nonoil part of the the Iraqi economy grows strongly at a CAGR of 79% over the next 10 years (overall GDP growth incl. oil 1113%) “Distinctive”3? Assumes the nonoil sectors of the Iraqi economy grows aggressively at a CAGR 1215% over the next 10 years (overall GDP growth incl. oil 1315%) ESTIMATEFOR DISCUSSIONTHREE DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOSIraq’s In the ‘World Class’ scenario Iraqi GDP per capita could reach 4,000 USD by 2023NonoilSectors ? Oil production level 2023? Oil production level 2023? 45 million barrels per day? 67 million barrels per dayOilSector +*) Population in 2023= 24 million, 2023=29 million, 2023=33 millionSource:McKinseyGDP development 2023 2023(in bn USD)GDP per capita* 20232023(in ‘000 USD)ESTIMATEFOR DISCUSSIONTHREE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOSIn the ‘distinctive’ scenario Iraqi GDP per capita could reach 4,000 USD by 20231“Good Standard” 2023 202320235363 73862023 202320233014%6%11%3%2“Best in class” 2023 202320235767 83982023 202320233016%8%12%5%3“Distinctive” 2023 202320236375 1021262023 202320233018%11%15%8%COMPARISON OF IRAQ WITH SAUDI ARABIASource:Global Insight WMM . 2023GDP per capita parison‘000 USDGDP parisonbn USD651452015530225516110110Iraq Saudi Iraq Saudi Iraq SaudiIraq Saudi Iraq Saudi Iraq Saudi1980 1990 20231980 1990 2023709030032080100300320100130300320911 911911Iraq Saudi Iraq SaudiIraq Saudi Iraq SaudiIraq Saudi Iraq SaudiGDP (bn USD)GDP per capita (‘000 USD)GDP (bn USD)GDP per capita (‘000 USD)GDP (bn USD)GDP per capita (‘000 USD)2312023 2023ESTIMATEFOR DISCUSSIONAGENDA? Overview Iraq? Economic scenarios for Iraq? Required investments *Assuming a capital productivity of Source:McKinsey analysisGDP 2023 (bn USD)30200300Investment required*(bn USD)1GDP 2023 (bn USD)7090Investment required*(bn USD)2250350GDP 2023 (bn USD)80100Investment required* (bn USD)3 350500GDP 2023 bn USD100130ESTIMATE OF REQUIRED INVESTMENTS INTO IRAQ OVER THE NEXT DECADETo achieve the ‘World Class’ scenario Iraq’s economy requires USD 250350 billion in investments, most of which will have to be FDI, over the next decadeESTIMATEFOR DISCUSSIONAssuming an average capital productivity of Source:Global Insight。 McKinsey analysisOil and gasConstructionCommunity, social and personal
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