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【正文】 GDP estimates for 2023 subject to wide variation (USD 2460 billion)*Purchasing power parity method, current pricesSource:CIA World Factbook。 Country Watch20231980ESTIMATEDEVELOPMENT OF IRAQ’S REAL GDP* PER CAPITA 1980 TO 2023… and purchasing power parity on individual level even furtherUSD thousandsGDP/capita estimates subject to wide variation (USD )70%Source:Global Insight WMM . 2023IraqSaudiArabiaCOMPARISON OF GDP DEVELOPMENT IRAQ VS. SAUDI ARABIA 1970 TO 2023Iraq has suffered a significant reduction in GDP over last 25 yearsin billion USD in prices and exchange rates of 2023Source:Global Insight WMM . 2023IraqSaudiArabiaCOMPARISON OF GDP PER CAPITA DEVELOPMENT IRAQ VS. SAUDI ARABIA 1970 TO 2023In the late 70ties Iraq’s GDP per capita was at par with Saudi Arabiain ‘000 USD in prices and exchange rates of 2023* Based on a GDP of USD30 billion and a population of 24 millionSource: EIU country profile IraqJordanIranIraqSaudi ArabiaSyria*ESTIMATECOMPARISON OF GDP PER CAPITA 2023Iraq’s current GDP per capita is parable to Syria and IranUSD thousands Source:Economist intelligence unit 2023。 Iraqi inflation rates%1996 1997 1998 1999 2023Exchange ratesIraqi Dinar per USD (black market rate) Huge budget deficits lead to “printing of money”BUT: Official exchange rate has been ID 0,31 to the USD since 19832023 2023 1996 1997 1998 1999 2023 2023 2023Current exchange rate ID 900 = 1 USDESTIMATEDEVELOPMENT OF INFLATION AND EXCHANGE RATES – 1996 TO 2023Iraq has shown high inflation coupled with strong depreciation of the currencySource:EIU country dataExternal debt$bnIraqSyria JordanIran2304851091113% of GPD60130 Main causes of uncertainty are? Accrued interest? “Assistance” funds in IranIraq war? Claims following Gulf war 1991ESTIMATECOMPARISON OF EXTERNAL LIABILITIES 2023Iraq has significant liabilities and can be considered bankrupt*Estimates range from $ –$ Source:Reuters。 Institute for international Economics 25181310Saudi ArabiaGulf States excl. KuwaitKuwaitParis Club excl Russia, France8Russia8France2USA3Commercial Bank Creditors2Bulgaria2Poland, Czech, Romania1Multilateral Institutions1Yugoslavia2Trade Claims24OthersTotal external debt 119*1425Kuwait reparation payments 133 – 144Total claims? Iraq regarded the loans from Saudi Arabia and Kuwait as grant payments for its 1980 war against Iran CommentsCreditor Amount – principal and overdue interestESTIMATEBREAKDOWN OF IRAQI LIABILITIES – 2023Iraq’s liabilities are mainly ‘loans’ from the Gulf states granted to Iraq in the 80ties during the war with Iran(USD bn)? The IMF and World Bank are owed less than $200mSource:EIU Country profile Iraq 2023FranceAustraliaChinaJordanTop 5 import sources Top 5 export destinations.FranceJordanItalySpainItalyMainly oil exports within
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